Thursday 6th July: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.60 %, Shanghai Composite lost 0.50 %, Hang Seng declined 0.30 %, ASX 200 fell 0.10 %
  • Commodities: WTI Oil at $45.45 (+0.70 %), Brent Oil at $48.10 (+0.70 %), Gold at $1226 (+0.40 %), Silver at $16.05 (+0.90 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.32, UK 10 year yield at 1.26, German 10 year yield at 0.47

News & Data:

  • Australian Trade Balance (AUD) May: 2471M (exp 1000M; prev 555M)
  • PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.7953 (prev fix 6.7922 prev close 6.8032)

Markets Update:

Markets had a mixed reaction to the FOMC minutes. The meeting minutes showed that the Fed members are increasingly split on the outlook for inflation. The US Dollar came slightly under pressure, and stocks declined as well. The focus is now on the US employment numbers on Friday. Weak numbers would put the Dollar under additional pressure. 

Ahead of the NFP, further consolidation seems likely. In EURUSD, support at 1.1320 held and demand for the currency remains solid. A weak NFP print could easily send the EURUSD back above 1.14, and the next big resistance level above that lies at 1.16.

GBPUSD is stuck around 1.29. The upcoming Brexit negotiations continue to weigh on the Pound, and will prevent any larger rally. Resistance is noted ahead of 1.30 and then 1.3040/50.

The Australian Dollar didn't react too much to the AUS trade data which was released overnight. AUDUSD is consolidating around 0.76. The technical outlook is still mildly positive as long as it can keep above 0.75. A clear break below 0.75 would signal a correction to 0.72. 

USDCAD is seeing a lot of volatility these days amid the swings in Oil prices. The pair recovered a bit overnight, as the decline in Oil put the CAD under pressure. The downtrend remains strong, and USDCAD is likely to run into strong selling interest ahead of 1.3050 and 1.31. 

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
  • 13:15 BST – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Trade Balance
  • 14:45 BST – US Services PMI





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