Thursday 2nd July: European Open Briefing

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Thursday 2nd July: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.10 %, Shanghai Composite fell 1.25 %, Hang Seng gained 0.60 %, ASX rose 1.55 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1167 (-0.20 %), Silver at $15.55 (-0.25 %), WTI Oil at $57.00 (+0.05 %), Brent Oil at $62.20 (+0.20 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.42, UK 10 year yield at 2.12, German 10 year yield at 0.83

News & Data:

  • Australia Trade Balance -A$2.75bln, Expected: -A$2.20bln, Previous: -A$4.14bln
  • Australia Exports 1.0 % m/m, Previous: -6.0 %
  • Australia Imports -4.0 % m/m, Previous: 4.0 %
  • New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index -3.1 %, Previous: -4.9 %
  • Japan Monetary Base 34.2 % y/y, Expected: 36.2 %, Previous: 35.6 %
  • New Zealand Associate FinMin Joyce: Falling Kiwi Is Offset To Weak Commodity Prices — BBG
  • EU’s Juncker Has A Plan For Monday Depending On Greek Referendum Result, But Didn’t Provide Details
  • S&P: Sees US GDP Growth Remaining Below 3% Through End Decade
  • S&P: Fed Will Hike Rates In September – Sees Year-End Fed Fund Rate 0.5%-0.75%

Markets Update:

Markets were again relatively quiet overnight as traders wait for US employment data, which will be released today instead of Friday, due to the July 04th holiday. Expectations for the NFP print are 230k, while the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.5 % to 5.4 %. Meanwhile, the negotiations between the Euro Zone/IMF and Greece yesterday did not bring any results. Greek PM Tsipras said that the referendum will be held and that he recommends to the people of Greece to vote “no”, i.e. against the demands of the international creditors. What is clear is that it will be another weekend full of uncertainty and the EUR pairs might see again wide gaps. Further, US traders are leaving today for a long weekend and it will be interesting to see how US equities will react. Some suggest we will see weakness in the S&P and DJIA as traders do not want to be long into the weekend.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:30 BST – UK Construction PMI
  • 12:30 BST – ECB Meeting Minutes
  • 13:30 BST – US NFP
  • 13:30 BST – US Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 BST – US Average Hourly Earnings
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 15:00 BST – US Factory Orders

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