Monday 8th April: Jobs data leads markets to a sigh of relief, although trading in the red

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Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.12%, Shanghai Composite down 1.02%, Hang Seng up 0.13%, ASX up 0.56%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1300.65 (+0.39%), Silver at $15.11 (+0.18%), Brent Oil at $70.66 (+0.45%), WTI Oil at $63.37 (+0.46%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.488, UK 10-year yield at 1.120, Germany 10-year yield at -0.006

News & Data:

  • (USD) Unemployment Rate 3.80% vs 3.80% expected
  • (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change 196K vs 172K expected
  • (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.10% vs 0.30% expected
  • (CAD) Unemployment Rate 5.80% vs 5.80% expected
  • (CAD) Employment Change -7.2K vs 3.0K expected
  • Australian jobs ads are falling at the fastest pace in over 5 years
  • KPMG: Chinese investment into Australia fell by more than a third in 2018

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 99K vs 80K short last week. Shorts increased by 19K
  • GBP short 10K vs well run some 9K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • JPY short 63K vs 62K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CHF short 26K vs 27K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 44k vs 40k short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • AUD short 56k vs 54k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD 0K vs 0K short last week. No position of significance in the NZD

Markets Update:

Asian shares inched up to seven-month highs on Monday as investors cheered a rebound in U.S. payrolls and hints of more stimulus in China, though there was some caution ahead of what is likely to be a tough U.S. earnings season.

Beijing announced that it would continue to suspend additional tariffs on U.S. vehicles and auto parts after April 1 as a gesture after Washington delayed tariff hikes on Chinese imports. A delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He will be in Washington this week for another round of talks.

Mainland Chinese stocks shed their earlier gains to slip by the morning session’s end, with the Shanghai composite lower by 1% and the Shenzhen component shedding around 1.4%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.45% in afternoon trade as index heavyweight Fanuc declined about 1%. The Topix also shed 0.45%. Over in South Korea, the Kospi was lower by 0.2%. Australia’s ASX 200 advanced 0.55% as almost all the sectors gained.

The dollar held its recent gain on the Japanese yen at 111.52, but again needs to clear the March top of 112.12 to spark a true uptrend. Sterling had troubles of its own at $1.3046 as time ticks away to Britain’s departure from the European Union on April 12, with no deal agreed.

Oil prices rose to their highest levels since Nov. 2018, driven by OPEC’s ongoing supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

Upcoming Events:

Tuesday, April 09, 2019

  • 11:45 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

  • 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Westpac Consumer Sentiment
  • 03:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) GDP m/m
  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing Production m/m
  • 12:45 PM GMT – (EUR) Main Refinancing Rate
  • 12:45 PM GMT – (EUR) Monetary Policy Statement
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB Press Conference
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m
  • 04:50 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, April 11, 2019

  • 02:30 AM GMT – (CNY) CPI y/y
  • 03:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
  • All Day – (All) OPEC Meetings
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
  • 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
  • 02:40 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 09:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Friday, April 12, 2019

  • 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Financial Stability Review
  • Tentative – (CNY) Trade Balance
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
  • Tentative – (USD) Treasury Currency Report
  • &more…

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