Monday 6th March: European Open Briefing

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Monday 6th March: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.50 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.40 %, Hang Seng and ASX both rose 0.30 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1234 (+0.60 %), Silver at $17.90 (+0.85 %), WTI Oil at $53.10 (-0.45 %), Brent Oil at $55.70 (-0.40 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.47, UK 10-year yield at 1.18, German 10-year yield at 0.36

News & Data:

  • Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.40% (est 0.40%, prev -0.10%)
  • Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge (Feb) MoM: -0.30% (prev 0.60%)
  • Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge (Feb) YoY: 2.10% (prev 2.10%)
  • Stocks drop as markets wary of Fed, geopolitical tensions – RTRS
  • Oil prices fall on doubts over Russian output curbs – RTRS
  • Dollar on back foot, slips from rate rise-inspired peak – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 51K vs 58K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • GBP short 71K vs 66K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • JPY short 50K vs 50K short last week. No change
  • CHF short 12K vs 9K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • CAD long 30K vs 25K long.  Longs increased by 5K
  • AUD long 52K vs 33K long.  Longs increased by 19K
  • NZD long 3K vs long 3K last week.  No change

Markets Update:

Risk appetite decreased somewhat after news that North Korea has fired four ballistic missiles, of which three landed in Japanese waters. S&P 500 futures declined, while the Yen was in demand.

USD/JPY started the day around 114.15, and declined to 113.70 during the session. Support is now seen at 113.50, followed by 112.80. Resistance lies at 114.70 and 115.50.

EUR/USD opened slightly lower in Asia, but quickly filled the gap and rose to a high of 1.0620. Later in the session, it fell back to 1.0600. Key resistance is seen at 1.0670, while support lies at 1.0540/50.

GBP/USD consolidated in a 1.2280-1.23 range in Asia. The Pound came under pressure on Friday following weak services PMI data.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:10 GMT – Euro Zone Retail PMI
  • 15:00 GMT – US Factory Orders
  • 20:00 GMT – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks
  • 22:30 GMT – Australia AIG Construction Index

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, March 7th

  • 03:30 GMT – RBA Interest Rate Decision
  • 07:00 GMT – German Factory Orders
  • 08:30 GMT – UK Halifax House Price Index
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone GDP
  • 13:30 GMT – US Trade Balance
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Trade Balance
  • 15:00 GMT – Canadian Ivey PMI
  • 23:50 GMT – Japanese GDP
  • 23:50 GMT – Japanese Current Account

Wednesday, March 8th

  • 07:00 GMT – German Industrial Production
  • 07:45 GMT – French Trade Balance
  • 08:15 GMT – Swiss CPI
  • 13:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, March 9th

  • 06:45 GMT – Swiss Unemployment Rate
  • 12:45 GMT – ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • 13:30 GMT – ECB Press Conference
  • 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 10th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Home Loans
  • 07:00 GMT – German Trade Balance
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Industrial Production
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing Production
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Trade Balance
  • 13:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 GMT – US NFP
  • 13:30 GMT – US Average Hourly Earnings
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Employment Change
  • 15:00 GMT – UK NIESR GDP Estimate
  • 20:30 GMT – US CFTC Positioning Data

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