Monday 5th September: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.95 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.20 %, Hang Seng rose 1.60 %, ASX 200 rallied 1.10 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1328 (-0.05 %), Silver at $19.43 (-0.20 %), WTI Oil at $44.20 (+0.15 %), Brent Oil at $46.65 (-0.45 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.61, UK 10 year yield at 0.72, German 10 year yield at -0.05

News & Data:

  • China Caixin Services PMI (Aug): 52.1 (prev 51.7)
  • China Caixin Composite PMI (Aug): 51.8 (prev 51.9)
  • UK BRC Shop Price Index (YoY, Aug): -2.0% (prev 1.60%)
  • Australia AIG Perf of Services (Aug): 45 (prev 53.9)
  • Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM, Aug): 0.20% (prev -0.30%)
  • Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY, Aug): 1.20% (prev 1.00%)
  • Australia Business inventories (QoQ, Q2): 0.30% (est 0.30%, prev 0.40%)
  • Australia ANZ Job Adverts (Aug): 1.80% (prev -0.80%)
  • Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ, Q2): 6.90% (est 2.00%, prev -4.70%)
  • Australia Business inventories (QoQ, Q2): 0.30% (est 0.30%, prev rev -0.40%)
  • Japan Average Cash Earnings (YoY, Jul): 1.40% (est 0.40%, prev 1.40%)
  • Japan Real Cash Earnings (YoY, Jul): 2.00% (est 0.70%, prev 2.00%)
  • Japan Overtime Pay (YoY) (YoY, Jul): -1.80% (prev -0.10%)
  • Japan Nikkei Services PMI (Aug): 49.6 (prev 50.4) JN Nikkei Composite PMI (Aug): 49.8 (prev 50.1)
  • New Zealand ANZ Commodity Prices (Aug): 3.20% (prev 2.10%)
  • PBOC fixes yuan @ 6.6873 (prev fix 6.6727, prev close 6.6821)
  • Goldman Sachs economist says 55% chance of September FOMC rate hike

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR 82K short versus 77K short last week
  • GBP 92K short versus 95K short last week
  • JPY 64K long versus 60K long last week
  • CHF 8K long versus 1.8K long last week
  • CAD 22K long versus 17K long last week
  • AUD 43K long versus 43K long last week
  • NZD 1.8K long vs 0.9K short last week

Markets Update:

The US Dollar weakened in Asia after Friday's NFP number missed expectations. EUR/USD opened around 1.1150 in Sydney and rose to a high of 1.1175. GBP/USD rallied from 1.3290 to 1.3330 overnight, while USD/JPY declined from 104.10 to 103.45.

The commodity currencies caught a bid amid the broad USD weakness. AUD/USD rose from 0.7560 to 0.7605 and is up 0.50 % on the day. NZD/USD made it from 0.7280 to 0.7340, a gain of 0.65 %. Meanwhile, USD/CAD fell from 1.2995 to 1.2950.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:45 BST – Italian Services PMI
  • 08:50 BST – French Services PMI
  • 08:55 BST – German Services PMI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
  • 09:30 BST – UK Services PMI
  • 09:30 BST – Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Retail Sales

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, September 6th

  • 05:30 BST – RBA Rate Decision
  • 06:45 BST – Swiss GDP
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone GDP
  • 14:45 BST – US Services PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 17:15 BST – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks

Wednesday, September 7th

  • 00:30 BST – Australia AIG Construction Index
  • 02:15 BST – FOMC Member Williams speaks
  • 02:30 BST – Australia GDP
  • 06:00 BST – Japan Leading Index
  • 07:00 BST – German Industrial Production
  • 07:45 BST – French Trade Balance
  • 08:30 BST – UK Halifax House Price Index
  • 09:30 BST – UK Industrial Production
  • 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing Production
  • 10:15 BST – BoE MPC Member Cunliffe speaks
  • 14:15 BST – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
  • 15:00 BST – UK NIESR GDP Estimate
  • 15:00 BST – US JOLTs Job Openings
  • 15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
  • 15:00 BST – Canada Ivey PMI
  • 19:00 BST – US Beige Book
  • 23:55 BST – RBA Assistant Governor Lowe speaks

Thursday, September 8th

  • 00:00 BST – UK RICS House Price Index
  • 00:50 BST – Japan GDP
  • 00:50 BST – Japan Current Account
  • 02:30 BST – Australia Trade Balance
  • 03:30 BST – China Trade Balance
  • 12:45 BST – ECB Rate Decision
  • 13:30 BST – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 15:00 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories

Friday, September 9th

  • 02:30 BST – Australia Home Loans
  • 02:30 BST – China CPI
  • 02:30 BST – China PPI
  • 06:45 BST – Swiss Unemployment Rate
  • 07:00 BST – German Trade Balance
  • 07:45 BST – French Industrial Production
  • 09:30 BST – UK Trade Balance
  • 13:15 BST – Canada Housing Starts
  • 13:30 BST – Canada Employment Change
  • 13:30 BST – Canada Unemployment Rate
  • 20:30 BST – CFTC Positioning Data

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