Monday 30th October: European Open Briefing

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Monday 30th October: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.04 %, Shanghai Composite fell by 0.73 %, Hang Seng up 0.02 %, ASX 200 climbed 0.23 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1272.38 (0.16 %), Silver at $16.77 (0.14 %), WTI Oil at $53.91 (0.02 %), Brent Oil at $60.09 (-0.07 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.40, UK 10-year yield at 1.35, German 10-year yield at 0.39

News & Data:

  • (JPY) Retail Sales 2.2 % y/y vs 2.3 % expected
  • (USD) Advance GDP q/q 3.0 % vs 2.6 % expected
  • (USD) Advance GDP Price Index q/q 2.2 % vs 1.7 % expected
  • (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 100.7 vs 100.8 expected
  • (AUD) PPI q/q 0.2 % vs 0.4 % expected
  • (EUR) German Import Prices m/m 0.9 % vs 0.5 % expected

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR long 84K vs 90K long last week.
  • GBP short 1K vs 5K long last week.
  • JPY short 116K vs 101K short last week.
  • CHF short 12K vs 5K short last week.
  • CAD long 72K vs 75K long last week
  • AUD long 57k vs 62K last week. 
  • NZD long 1K vs 7K long last week.

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly higher early on Monday with the end-of-week rally in key U.S. stocks boosting gains in technology stocks across the region. However, Shanghai Composite Index tumbled the most this year on an intraday basis as the nation’s bond slump deepened.  Meanwhile, political developments in Spain continued to weigh on the euro and oil hovered around a 2-year peak on supply fears.

USDJPY is currently seen trading a few points weaker around 113.60 as the Yen rose 0.1 percent against the US Dollar after the pair initially popping over 113.80 early in Tokyo session. The Nikkei 225 edged down 0.19 percent as trading houses and financial stocks declined. Tech shares were mixed. Japan retail sales for September increased 2.2 percent compared with one year ago, government data showed.

EURUSD had a rather quiet session early on Monday. Currently the EUR is seen trading around 1.1615 against the US Dollar rising from early lows of 1.1595.  Overall, the political uncertainty in Europe and the European Central Bank’s decision to extend its stimulus further weighed on the common currency, marking its biggest weekly loss of the year. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies was down 0.1% and is currently valued at 94.76

AUDUSD opened on a slightly positive note currently seen trading around 0.7676 up from its Friday’s lows of 0.7625. Australia’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.72 percent in Monday trading. On the other hand, the NewZealand dollar fell 0.5 percent against the USD following the comments from country’s new finance minister, Grant Robertson. The Kiwi is currently seen trading around 0.6842

Upcoming Events:

  • All Day – (EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m
  • 07:00 GMT – (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m
  • 08:00 GMT – (CHF) KOF Economic Barometer
  • 08:00 GMT – (EUR) Spanish Flash CPI y/y
  • 08:00 GMT – (EUR) Spanish Flash GDP q/q
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m
  • 12:30 GMT – (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m
  • 12:30 GMT – (USD) Personal Spending m/m

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, October 31st

  • Tentative – (JPY) Monetary Policy Statement
  • Tentative – (JPY) BOJ Outlook Report
  • Tentative – (JPY) BOJ Outlook Report
  • 00:00 GMT – (NZD) ANZ Business Confidence
  • 01:00 GMT – (CNY) Manufacturing PMI
  • 01:00 GMT – (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 06:30 GMT – (JPY) BOJ Press Conference
  • 10:00 GMT – (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • 10:00 GMT – (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • 10:00 GMT – (EUR) Prelim Flash GDP q/q
  • 12:30 GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m
  • 12:30 GMT – (CAD) RMPI m/m
  • 12:30 GMT – (USD) Employment Cost Index q/q
  • 13:45 GMT – (USD) Chicago PMI
  • 14:00 GMT – (USD) CB Consumer Confidence
  • 19:30 GMT – (CAD) BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 21:45 GMT – (NZD) Employment Change q/q
  • 21:45 GMT – (NZD) Unemployment Rate

Wednesday, November 1st

  • 01:45 GMT – (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
  • 12:15 GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 14:00 GMT – (GBP) ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 14:30 GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
  • 17:15 GMT – (CHF) Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
  • 18:00 GMT – (USD) FOMC Statement
  • 18:00 GMT – (USD) Federal Funds Rate
  • 20:15 GMT – (CAD) BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Thursday, November 2nd

  • 00:30 GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
  • 00:30 GMT – (AUD) Building Approvals m/m
  • 08:15 GMT – (EUR) Spanish Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Construction PMI
  • 12:00 GMT – (GBP) BOE Inflation Report
  • 12:00 GMT – (GBP) MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  • 12:00 GMT – (GBP) Monetary Policy Summary
  • 12:00 GMT – (GBP) Official Bank Rate
  • 12:30 GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 12:30 GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims

Friday, November 3rd

  • All Day – (JPY) Bank Holiday
  • 00:30 GMT – (AUD) Retail Sales m/m
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Services PMI
  • 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
  • 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
  • 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
  • 12:30 GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 12:30 GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 12:30 GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
  • 14:00 GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

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