Monday 27th February: European Open Briefing

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Monday 27th February: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.85 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.30 %, Hang Seng rose 0.10 %, ASX 200 lost 0.30 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1257 (+0.10 %), Silver at $18.43 (+0.10 %), WTI Oil at $54.25 (+0.45 %), Brent Oil at $56.60 (+0.50 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.34, UK 10-year yield at 1.08, German 10-year yield at 0.18

News & Data:

  • Australian Inventories Q4 0.3% (QoQ) (Prev 0.5%)
  • Australian Company Operating Profit Q4 20.1% (QoQ) (prev 1.0%)
  • PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8814 (prev fix 6.8655 prev close 6.8700)

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 58K vs 47K short last week. Shorts increased by 11K
  • GBP short 66K vs 67K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • JPY short 50K vs 51K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CHF short 9K vs 11K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • CAD long 25K vs 19K long.  Longs increased by 6K
  • AUD long 33K vs 24K long.  Longs increased by 9K
  • NZD long 3K vs long 3K last week.  No change.

Markets Update:

The Pound came under pressure overnight amid renewed speculations about another Scottish independence referendum. GBP/USD started the new trading week around 1.2460 and fell to a low of 1.2390 ahead of the Tokyo open. The pair later recovered to 1.2430.

Other than that, the US Dollar had a rather mixed performance. The Australian Dollar was the strongest overnight, despite the risk-off sentiment in equity markets. AUD/USD rose from 0.7665 at the open to a high of 0.7705. Meanwhile, EUR/USD began the trading week at 1.0555 and rallied to 1.0575 later in the session.

USD/JPY came under pressure along with the Nikkei and fell to 111.90. However, the pair managed to recover to 112.30. Resistance is now seen at 112.55 and 112.90.

Upcoming Events:

  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Business Climate
  • 13:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders
  • 15:00 GMT – US Pending Home Sales
  • 16:00 GMT – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Trade Balance
  • 23:50 GMT – Japan Industrial Production
  • 23:50 GMT – Japan Retail Sales

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, February 28th

  • 00:00 GMT – Australian HIA New Home Sales
  • 00:00 GMT – Australian ANZ Business Confidence
  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Current Account
  • 07:45 GMT – French CPI
  • 07:45 GMT – French GDP
  • 10:00 GMT – Italian CPI
  • 13:30 GMT – US GDP
  • 14:45 GMT – US Chicago PMI
  • 15:00 GMT – US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 15:00 GMT – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
  • 20:00 GMT – FOMC Member Harker speaks
  • 20:30 GMT – FOMC Member Williams speaks
  • 21:00 GMT – US President Trump speaks
  • 22:30 GMT – Australian AIG Manufacturing Index

Wednesday, March 1st

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian GDP
  • 01:00 GMT – Chinese Manufacturing PMI
  • 01:00 GMT – Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 01:45 GMT – Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:45 GMT – Italian Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:50 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:55 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:55 GMT – German Unemployment Change
  • 08:55 GMT – German Unemployment Rate
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing PMI
  • 13:00 GMT – German CPI
  • 13:30 GMT – US Core PCE Price Index
  • 13:30 GMT – US Personal Income
  • 13:30 GMT – US Personal Spending
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Current Account
  • 14:45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI
  • 15:00 GMT – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 15:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
  • 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 18:00 GMT – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks

Thursday, March 2nd

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Building Approvals
  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Trade Balance
  • 06:45 GMT – Swiss GDP
  • 08:15 GMT – Swiss Retail Sales
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Construction PMI
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian GDP
  • 23:30 GMT – Japanese CPI
  • 23:30 GMT – Japanese Household Spending

Friday, March 3rd

  • 01:45 GMT – Chinese Caixin Services PMI
  • 07:00 GMT – German Retail Sales
  • 08:45 GMT – Italian Services PMI
  • 08:50 GMT – French Services PMI
  • 08:55 GMT – German Services PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – Italian GDP
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Services PMI
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Retail Sales
  • 14:45 GMT – US Services PMI
  • 15:00 GMT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 18:00 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks

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