Monday 26th September: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.85 %, Shanghai Composite lost 0.70 %, Hang Seng declined 0.80 %, ASX 200 fell 0.05 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1337 (-0.30 %), Silver at $19.60 (-1.05 %), WTI Oil at $44.80 (+0.75 %), Brent Oil at $46.80 (+0.70 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.62, UK 10 year yield at 0.73, German 10 year yield at -0.09

News & Data:

  • New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug) (NZD): -1,265mln (est -765.5mln, prev. -433.0mln)
  • New Zealand Imports (Aug) (NZD): 4.65bln (est. 4.31bln, prev. 4.40bln)
  • New Zealand Exports (Aug) (NZD): 3.39bln (est. 3.57bln, prev. 3.96bln)
  • PBOC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.6744 (prev. close 6.6698. prev. fix 6.6670)
  • Algeria Energy Min: All Options 'Possible' For OPEC Concerning an Output Freeze or Cut. Will Not Leave Meeting Empty Handed
  • Russian Energy Minister Novak Says Reaching Oil Output Freeze Deal "Non-Critical" For Russia – RIA
  • U.K.'s Johnson Says Brexit-Trigger Process Shouldn't Drag On
  • Asian shares slip, U.S. presidential debate awaited – RTRS
  • Oil prices rebound after Algeria says all options open at OPEC meeting – RTRS
  • Dollar sways versus yen and euro, U.S. presidential debate awaited – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR 85K short versus 81K short last week
  • GBP 59K short versus 83K short last week
  • JPY 59K long versus 57K long last week
  • CHF 8.4K long versus 1.3 K long last week
  • CAD 16K long versus 17K long last week
  • AUD 7K long versus 36K long last week
  • NZD -8K short versus 5 K long last week

Markets Update:

Price action in FX was quiet overnight. EUR/USD opened at 1.1220 in Asia, little changed from Friday, and traded in a 1.1220-40 range. GBP/USD rose from 1.2960 at the open to a high of 1.2985. USD/JPY came under pressure in the early Asian session and fell from 101.00 to 100.70, but bounced from there and rose back to 101 later in the session.

The commodity currencies are slightly down on the day, as AUD/USD fell from 0.7630 and NZD/USD declined from 0.7250 to 0.7220.

Oil prices bounced slightly after heavy losses on Friday, but precious metals continued to decline as the USD regained some strength.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Climate
  • 15:00 BST – US New Home Sales

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, September 27th

  • 00:50 BST – Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone M3 Money Supply
  • 14:00 BST – US S&P/HPI Composite
  • 14:45 BTS – US Services PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 15:00 BST – US Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday, September 28th

  • 07:00 BST – German GfK Consumer Climate
  • 08:00 BST – Swiss KOF Leading Indicators
  • 13:30 BST – US Durable Goods Orders
  • 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, September 29th

  • 00:50 BST – Japanese Retail Sales
  • 08:00 BST – Spanish CPI
  • 08:55 BST – German Unemployment Rate
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
  • 13:00 BST – German CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US GDP
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 15:00 BST – US Pending Home Sales

Friday, September 30th

  • 00:30 BST – Japan Household Spending
  • 00:30 BST – Tokyo CPI
  • 00:30 BST – Japan CPI
  • 00:30 BST – Japan Unemployment Rate
  • 00:50 BST – Japan Industrial Production
  • 01:00 BST – New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence
  • 02:00 BST – Australia HIA New Home Sales
  • 02:45 BST – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • 02:45 BST – China Caixin Services PMI
  • 06:00 BST – Japan Housing Starts
  • 07:00 BST – German Retail Sales
  • 07:45 BST – French CPI
  • 09:30 BST – UK GDP
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 BST – US Personal Income
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian GDP
  • 14:45 BST – US Chicago PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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