Monday 24th October: European Open Briefing

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Monday 24th October: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.30 %, Shanghai Composite gained 1.30 %, Hang Seng rose 0.40 %, ASX 200 declined 0.65 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1264 (-0.30 %), Silver at $17.52 (+0.15 %), WTI Oil at $50.60 (-0.50 %), Brent Oil at $51.55 (-0.40 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.74, UK 10 year yield at 1.08, German 10 year yield at 0.00

News & Data:

  • Japan Trade Balance (JPY) Sep: 498.3bn (est 366.1B, prev -19.2B)
  • Japan Trade Balance Adjusted (JPY) Sep: 349bn (est 211.0B, prev 364.4B)
  • Japan Exports (YoY) Sep: -6.90% (est -10.80%, prev -9.60%)
  • Japan Imports (YoY) Sep: -16.30% (est -17.00%, prev -17.20%)
  • Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Oct P: 51.7 (est 51, prev 50.4)
  • PBOC fixes yuan @ 6.7690 vs prev fix 6.7558 and prev close 6.7655
  • Chinese state banks sold dollars in FX market – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR 109K short versus 93K short last week
  • GBP 91K short versus 95K short last week
  • JPY 37K long versus 46K long last week
  • CHF 16K short versus 9K short last week
  • CAD 14K short versus 12K short last week
  • AUD 30K long versus 26K long last week
  • NZD 0K versus 8K short last week

Markets Update:

The Dollar strengthened against most currencies overnight. EUR/USD opened around 1.0880 in Asia, unchanged from Friday's close, and declined to 1.0860 later in the session. GBP/USD fell from 1.2220 to 1.2185, while USD/JPY caught a bid and rose from 103.80 to 104.00.

The commodity currencies were rather quiet too. AUD/USD traded in a 0.7590-0.7615 range, while NZD/USD traded in a 0.7145-70 range. New Zealand markets were closed today for a public holiday, which led to light volumes in the NZD pairs. Meanwhile, USD/CAD climbed from 1.3325 to 1.3360.

The offshore Yuan broke above 6.78 against the Dollar, while the onshore Yuan climbed above 6.77, the highest level since 2010. China’s currency has been under pressure amid a rally in the USD caused by an increase in US rate expectations and weak Chinese economic data.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:00 BST – French Manufacturing PMI

  • 08:00 BST – French Services PMI
  • 08:30 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:30 BST – German Services PMI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Wholesale Sales
  • 14:00 BST – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
  • 14:05 BST – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
  • 14:45 BST – US Manufacturing PMI
  • 19:00 BST – FOMC Member Powell speaks
  • 20:30 BST – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, October 25th

  • 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Expectations
  • 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Climate
  • 14:00 BST – US House Price Index
  • 15:00 BST – US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 15:00 BST – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
  • 15:35 BST – Bank of England Carney speaks
  • 16:30 BST – ECB President Draghi speaks

Wednesday, October 26th

  • 01:30 BST – Australia CPI
  • 07:00 BST – German Consumer Climate
  • 09:00 BST – Italian Retail Sales
  • 14:45 BST – US Services PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US New Home Sales
  • 22:45 BST – New Zealand Trade Balance

Thursday, October 27th

  • 03:30 BST – Singapore Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 BST – UK GDP
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – US Durable Goods Orders
  • 15:00 BST – US Pending Home Sales

Friday, October 28th

  • 00:30 BST – Japan Unemployment Rate
  • 00:30 BST – Japan CPI
  • 00:30 BST – Japan Household Spending
  • 01:00 BST – Australia HIA New Home Sales
  • 01:30 BST – Australia PPI
  • 07:45 BST – French CPI
  • 08:00 BST – Spanish CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
  • 13:00 BST – German CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US GDP
  • 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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