Latest update November 15th, 2018 5:08 PM
Monday 21st November: European Open Briefing
Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.70 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.85 %, Hang Seng and ASX 200 both rose 0.10 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1210 (+0.15 %), Silver at $16.62 (-0.10 %), WTI Oil at $46.90 (+1.20 %), Brent Oil at $47.45 (+1.25 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.24, UK 10-year yield at 1.47, German 10-year yield at 0.28
News & Data:
- Japan Trade Bal. (JPY) Oct: 496.2bln (est. 610bln, prev. 497.6bln)
- Japan Trade Balance Adjusted (JPY) Oct: 476.3bln (est. 404.3bln, prev. 358.5bln)
- Japan Exports (YoY) Oct: -10.3% (est. -8.5%, prev. -6.9%)
- Japan Imports (YoY) Oct: -16.5% (est. -16.1%, prev. -16.3%)
- New Zealand Credit Card Spending (MoM) Oct: 2.8% (prev. 2.6%)
- New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) Oct: 10.2% (prev. 8.2%)
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8985 (prev. fix 6.8976, prev. close 6.8880)
- German Chancellor Merkel says she wants fourth term next year
- Fed’s Bullard: Sees no reason for major changes in Fed due to Trump, Fed is and will remain independent
- Fed’s Powell: There are still trade barriers to be eliminated, it appears process will be on hold for some time
- UK's Hammond: Some Brexit options could take a long time to negotiate, transition is important, need to get best deal
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 119K short vs 129K short last week. Shorts pared by 10K
- GBP 80K short vs 90K short last week. Shorts pared by 10K
- JPY 21K long vs 32K long last week. Longs pared by 11K
- CHF 22K short vs. 23K short last week. Short pared by 1K
- CAD 18K short vs 21K short last week. Shorts pared by 3K
- AUD 42K long vs 41K long last week. Longs increased by 1K
- NZD 2K long vs 2K long last week. Unchanged on the week
Markets Update:
The Dollar's winning streak continues, as it extended gains against most other major currencies overnight. USD/JPY opened around 110.90 and after a decline to 110.65, it rallied above 111 and extended gains to 111.20 so far. AUD/USD recovered to 0.7340 in the early Asian session, but came under renewed pressure after the Tokyo open and fell to 0.7310. NZD/USD declined to 0.6985, a fresh four-month low. The Euro bounced to 1.0615 in the early Asian session, but selling interest remains high on any rally. The topside was capped at 1.0615 and EUR/USD fell back to 1.0590.
Precious metals rallied shortly after the open, but failed to sustain momentum. Gold rose from $1205 to $1214, but fell back to $1210 after the Tokyo open. Similar price action was seen in Silver, which rallied from $16.50 to $16.70, but retraced back to $16.58 later in the session.
Upcoming Events:
- 13:00 GMT – FOMC Member Fischer speaks
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Wholesale Sales
- 16:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, November 22nd
- 07:00 GMT – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks
- 07:45 GMT – RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaks
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Retail Sales
- 15:00 GMT – US Existing Home Sales
- 15:00 GMT – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Retail Sales
Wednesday, November 23rd
- 00:30 GMT – Australian Construction Work Done
- 08:00 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:00 GMT – French Services PMI
- 08:30 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
- 08:30 GMT – German Services PMI
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 13:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 14:45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI
- 15:00 GMT – US New Home Sales
- 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 24th
- US Public Holiday – Thanksgiving
- 00:30 GMT – Australian Private CAPEX
- 00:30 GMT – Japan Manufacturing PMI
- 05:00 GMT – Japan Leading Index
- 07:00 GMT – German GDP
- 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate
- 12:00 GMT – German GfK Consumer Climate
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Trade Balance
- 23:30 GMT – Japan CPI
Friday, November 25th
- 09:30 GMT – UK GDP
- 14:45 GMT – US Services PMI
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