Monday 20th November: European Open Briefing

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Monday 20th November: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.62 %, Shanghai Composite lost 0.17 %, Hang Seng fell 0.02 %, ASX 200 lost 0.19 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1291.75 (-0.36 %), Silver at $17.18 (-1.06 %), WTI Oil at $56.61 (-0.18 %), Brent Oil at $62.61 (-0.18 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.32, UK 10-year yield at 1.30, German 10-year yield at 0.36

News & Data:

  • (USD) Building Permits 1.30 M vs 1.25 M expected
  • (USD) Housing Starts 1.29 M vs 1.19 M expected
  • (CAD) CPI m/m 0.1 % vs 0.1 % expected
  • (CAD) Common CPI y/y 1.6 % vs 1.5 % previous
  • (CAD) Median CPI y/y 1.7 % vs 1.8 % previous
  • (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y 1.5 % vs 1.5% previous
  • Bitcoin Surges Past $8,000 as Technology Concerns Subside- Bloomberg
  • Euro slips as German coalition talks fail, heightens uncertainty- RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR long 85K vs 85K long last week. No change in the current week.
  • GBP short -4K vs 9K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY short 136K vs 128K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • CHF short 28K vs 25K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • CAD long 47K vs 51K long last week. Longs trimmed by K. Longs trimmed by 4K
  • AUD long 44k vs 45K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
  • NZD short 12K vs 11K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific equity markets fell early on Monday mainly due to the slide in Euro after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s push to form a coalition government collapsed. In addition to this, Investor sentiment was hurt by a retreat on Wall Street last Friday and sliding Chinese stocks after regulators unveiled a fresh initiative to curb shadow banking.

USDJPY is mostly unchanged, currently seen trading around 112.05 after falling to lows of 111.89 earlier in the day. The Nikkei Stock average fell 0.6% as the euro hit two-month lows against the yen. The euro’s slide helped push up the yen, a haven, and as a result pressured Japanese stocks after they logged last week their first weekly decline since early September.

EURUSD fell to lows of below 1.1725 earlier in the session as the EUR lost 0.5 percent against the US Dollar. Currently the Euro is seen trading at 1.1737.  The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies was up 0.3 % and is currently valued at 93.97. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell about two basis points to 2.32 percent.

AUDUSD opened a little lower early on Monday reaching lows of 0.7550 but has since recovered and is currently seen trading above 0.7565. Australia’s 10-year yield dipped three basis point 2.54 percent.  The New Zealand dollar followed a similar price action on Monday and is currently trading around 0.6835 down from lows under 0.6800

Upcoming Events:

  • 11:00 GMT – (EUR) German Buba Monthly Report
  • 14:00 GMT – (CNY) CB Leading Index m/m
  • 14:00 GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 15:00 GMT – (USD) CB Leading Index m/m
  • 16:00 GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 18:30 GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Ramsden Speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, November 21st

  • 00:30 GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 03:50 GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
  • 09:05 GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • 10:00 GMT – (GBP) Inflation Report Hearings
  • 13:30 GMT – (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m
  • 15:00 GMT – (USD) Existing Home Sales
  • 23:00 GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Wednesday, November 22nd

  • 00:30 GMT – (AUD) Construction Work Done q/q
  • 00:30 GMT – (GBP) Autumn Forecast Statement
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m
  • 15:30 GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
  • 19:00 GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 21:45 GMT – (NZD) Retail Sales q/q

Thursday, November 23rd

  • All Day – (JPY) Bank Holiday
  • All Day – (USD) Bank Holiday
  • 08:00 GMT – (EUR) French Flash Services PMI
  • 08:30 GMT – (EUR) German Flash Services PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – (EUR) Flash Services PMI
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Second Estimate GDP q/q
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 16:30 GMT – (CHF) SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
  • 21:45 GMT – (NZD) Trade Balance​

Friday, November 24th

  • 00:30 GMT – (JPY) Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – (EUR) German Ifo Business Climate
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) High Street Lending
  • 13:30 GMT – (CAD) Corporate Profits q/q
  • 14:45 GMT – (USD) Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 14:45 GMT – (USD) Flash Services PMI
  • & More…

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