Monday 1st July: Asian markets gain in early trading after US-China agree to resume negotiations

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Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 2.15%, Shanghai Composite up 2.12%, Hang Seng down 0.28%, ASX up 0.44%
  • Commodities: Gold at $1388.55 (-1.78%), Silver at $15.18 (-1.04%), Brent Oil at $66.44 (+2.63%), WTI Oil at $59.98 (+2.58%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.038, UK 10-year yield at 0.842, Germany 10-year yield at -0.317

News & Data:

  • (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.2 vs 54.2 expected
  • (CNY) Manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs 49.5 expected
  • (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.2 vs 97.4 expected
  • (USD) Chicago PMI 49.7 vs 54 expected
  • (USD) Personal Spending m/m 0.40% vs 0.50% expected
  • (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.20% vs 0.20% expected
  • (CAD) RMPI m/m -2.30% vs -3.00% expected
  • (CAD) GDP m/m 0.30% vs 0.20% expected
  • (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.10% vs 1.00% expected
  • (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.20% vs 1.20% expected
  • (GBP) Final GDP q/q 0.50% vs 0.50% expected
  • (GBP) Current Account -30.0B vs -32.0B expected

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 56K vs 52K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • GBP short 59K vs 53K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • JPY short 10K vs 17K short last week. Short trimmed by 7K
  • CHF short 16k vs 15k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 66k vs 65k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • NZD short 24K vs 24K short last week. Shorts unchanged
  • CAD short 15K vs 38K short last week. Shorts decreased by 23K

Markets Update:

Stocks rallied and bonds retreated in Asia on Monday as the Sino-U.S. trade talks averted one threat to the global economy. The United States and China agreed on Saturday to restart trade talks after President Donald Trump offered concessions to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping when the two met at the side-lines of the G20 summit in Japan over the weekend. Wall Street ended last week on an upbeat note after the Federal Reserve raised expectations that it is prepared to cut interest rates if needed to keep the economy growing.

Stocks jump in Japan and mainland China with sentiments supported by US- China truce. Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are both trading above by over 2%.  Australian shares started the week higher as the trade ceasefire prompted risk-on buying, while the possibility of a local interest rate cut also lent support to equities. The ASX 200 index is trading up by 0.44% or 29.3 points at 6,648.20 after the benchmark fell 0.7% on Friday. Hong Kong’s market was closed for a holiday; Hang Seng closed 0.28% lower on Friday.

Treasury yields rose and futures reined in bets for a half-point rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve this month. The reaction in currency markets was to strip some recent gain from safe harbors like the yen and Swiss franc. The dollar crept up 0.2% on the yen to 108.15 and gained 0.4% on the franc to 0.9801. Gold, on the other hand lost its shine and fell 1.8% to $1,388.5 per ounce.

Oil prices sprang higher on news OPEC and its allies look set to extend supply cuts at least until the end of 2019 as Iraq joined top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia in endorsing the policy.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, July 01, 2019

  • 2:45am GMT – (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • 9:30am GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
  • All Day – (All) OPEC Meetings
  • 3:00pm GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 11:00pm GMT – (NZD) NZIER Business Confidence

Tuesday, July 02, 2019

  • 5:30am GMT – (AUD) Cash Rate
  • 5:30am GMT – (AUD) RBA Rate Statement
  • All Day – (All) OPEC-JMMC Meetings
  • 11:35am GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 10:30pm GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks


Wednesday, July 03, 2019

  • 2:30am GMT – (AUD) Building Approvals m/m
  • 2:30am GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
  • 9:30am GMT – (GBP) Services PMI
  • 1:15pm GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
  • 1:15pm GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 1:30pm GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
  • 3:00pm GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI


Thursday, July 04, 2019

  • 2:30am GMT – (AUD) Retail Sales m/m


Friday, July 05, 2019

  • 1:30pm GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
  • 1:30pm GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
  • 1:30pm GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 1:30pm GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 1:30pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
  • &more…


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