Monday 1st April: Asian markets higher on trade optimism

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Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.43%, Shanghai Composite up 2.58%, Hang Seng up 1.83%, ASX up 0.59%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1292.65 (-0.45%), Silver at $15.05 (-0.38%), Brent Oil at $68.33 (+1.11%), WTI Oil at $60.62 (+0.80%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.444, UK 10-year yield at 1.025, Germany 10-year yield at -0.038

News & Data:

  • (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.1 expected
  • (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.8 vs 54.5 expected
  • (CNY) Manufacturing PMI 50.5 vs 49.6 expected
  • (GBP) Parliament Brexit Vote Reject vs Reject expected
  • (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.4 vs 97.8 expected
  • (USD) Chicago PMI 58.7 vs 61.1 expected
  • (USD) Personal Spending m/m 0.10% vs 0.30% expected
  • (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.10% vs 0.20% expected
  • (CAD) RMPI m/m 4.60% vs 1.20% expected
  • (CAD) GDP m/m 0.30% vs 0.10% expected
  • (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.6B vs 4.6B expected
  • (GBP) Final GDP q/q 0.20% vs 0.20% expected
  • (GBP) Current Account -23.7B vs -22.9B expected

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 80K vs 78K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • GBP short 9K vs 14K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY short 62K vs 59K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • CHF short 27K vs 27K short last week. Unchanged on the week
  • CAD short 40k vs 48k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • AUD short 54k vs 52k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD 0K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets, led by China, are mostly higher on Monday following the positive cues from Wall Street Friday amid optimism about U.S.-China trade talks. High-level trade talks are set to resume in Washington this week. In addition, data released over the weekend that showed China’s factory activity in March unexpectedly grew for the first time in fourth months boosted sentiment.

Mainland Chinese shares were the largest gainers as they jumped by the morning session’s end. The Shanghai composite was up 2.6 percent, while the Shenzhen component surged 3.6 percent. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 1.8 percent. The Nikkei 225 in Japan jumped 1.4 percent in afternoon trade as shares of index heavyweights Fast Retailing, Softbank Group and Fanuc all advanced. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.56 percent, with majority of the sectors seeing gains.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up to a six-day high of 2.444 percent, pulling away from a 15-month low of 2.340 percent brushed on March 25. The Treasury 10-year yield had sunk as the Federal Reserve halted its drive to hike rates and as risk aversion, driven by concerns about a global economic slowdown, gripped financial markets towards the end of March. The 3-month/10-year yield spread has since pulled back from negative territory and stood around 3 basis points.

Oil prices posted their biggest quarterly rise in a decade during January-March, as U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela as well as OPEC-led supply cuts overshadowed concerns over a slowing global economy.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, April 01, 2019

  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 07:55 PM GMT – (CAD) BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 10:00 PM GMT – (NZD) NZIER Business Confidence

Tuesday, April 02, 2019

  • 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Building Approvals m/m
  • 04:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Rate Statement
  • 04:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Cash Rate
  • 09:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Annual Budget Release
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m

Wednesday, April 03, 2019

  • 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Retail Sales m/m
  • 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
  • 02:45 AM GMT – (CNY) Caixin Services PMI
  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Services PMI
  • 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Thursday, April 04, 2019

  • 12:30 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Ivey PMI

Friday, April 05, 2019

  • 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
  • &more…

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