Monday 19th August: Asian markets rebound on stimulus policy from central banks around the globe

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Monday 19th August: Asian markets rebound on stimulus policy from central banks around the globe 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.71%, Shanghai Composite up 1.90%, Hang Seng up 2.20%, ASX up 0.97%
  • Commodities: Gold at $1518.65 (-0.32%), Silver at $17.02 (-0.58%), Brent Oil at $59.44 (+1.36%), WTI Oil at $55.48 (+1.22%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.572, UK 10-year yield at 0.468, Germany 10-year yield at -0.682

News & Data:

  • (JPY) Trade Balance -0.13T vs -0.15T expected
  • (GBP) Rightmove HPI m/m -1.00% vs -0.20% previous
  • (NZD) PPI Output q/q 0.50% vs -0.40% expected
  • (NZD) PPI Input q/q 0.30% vs -0.60% expected
  • (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.70% vs 2.60% previous
  • (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 92.1 vs 97.2 expected
  • (USD) Housing Starts 1.19M vs 1.26M expected
  • (USD) Building Permits 1.34M vs 1.27M expected
  • (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases -3.98B vs 6.55B expected
  • (EUR) Trade Balance 17.9B vs 18.7B expected
  • Japan’s exports slip for eighth month, sales to China drop as recession fears grow
  • USD On The Verge Of A Macro Breakout

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 47K vs 44K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • GBP short 96K vs 102K short last week. Shorts decreased by 6K
  • JPY long 25K vs 11K short last week. Longs increased by 14K
  • CHF short 13k vs 16k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • AUD short 63k vs 55k short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD short 13K vs 12K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CAD long 14K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 10K

Markets Update:

Asian shares are higher on Monday, as investor reconsider their read on President Donald Trump’s trade war and growing worries about slowing economies around the world. Trump on Sunday dismissed worries about a recession, touting a strong economy.

Trump also suggested no quick end to the trade war with China, maintaining that China’s economy is struggling because of the tariffs and would like to make a trade deal with the U.S. Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates to shore up economic growth. The central bank lowered interest rates by a quarter-point at its last meeting. It was the first time it lowered rates in a decade.

Asian shares rise following Wall Street shares that had rebounded on Friday after a report that Germany’s coalition government was prepared to set aside its balanced budget rule in order to take on new debt and launch stimulus steps to counter a possible recession. Shanghai Composite surges 1.9% while Nikkei rises 0.71% as Trump says he’s in no hurry for a trade deal. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 2.2% after a massive but peaceful pro-democracy march, while the ASX 200 added 0.97%.

U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from recent lows in the wake of German stimulus hopes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 1.572%, having pulled away from a three-year trough of 1.475% marked last week in the wake of global slowdown fears. Elsewhere in currencies, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies hovered near a two-week high of 98.339. The dollar rose to 106.40 Japanese yen from 106.24 yen on Friday.

Oil prices gained on Monday in Asia following a volatile week as traders digested the latest development on the Sino-U.S. trade front. Brent crude oil futures gained 1.36% to $59.44 per barrel, following in the tracks of improved equity markets and with a weekend attack on a Saudi oil facility by Yemeni separatists providing further support. Gold prices fell to $1518.65 an ounce on Monday in Asia as Asian stock markets recovered today.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, August 19, 2019

  • 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Current Account
  • 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Final CPI y/y
  • 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Final Core CPI y/y
  • Tentative – (EUR) German Buba Monthly Report

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

  • 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 6:00 am GMT – (CHF) Trade Balance
  • 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German PPI m/m
  • 10:00 am GMT – (GBP) CBI Industrial Order Expectations
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
  • 2:30 pm GMT – (AUD) CB Leading Index m/m
  • Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
  • 10:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

  • 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) MI Leading Index m/m
  • 3:00 am GMT – (NZD) Credit Card Spending y/y
  • 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • Tentative – (EUR) German 30-y Bond Auction
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Core CPI m/m
  • 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Existing Home Sales
  • 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
  • 6:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 11:00 pm GMT – (AUD) Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 11:00 pm GMT – (AUD) Flash Services PMI

Thursday, August 22, 2019

  • 12:30 am GMT – (JPY) Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 4:30 am GMT – (JPY) All Industries Activity m/m
  • 7:15 am GMT – (EUR) French Flash Services PMI
  • 7:15 am GMT – (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 7:30 am GMT – (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 7:30 am GMT – (EUR) German Flash Services PMI
  • 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Flash Services PMI
  • 10:00 am GMT – (GBP) CBI Realized Sales
  • 11:30 am GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
  • 1:45 pm GMT – (USD) Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 1:45 pm GMT – (USD) Flash Services PMI
  • 2:00 pm GMT – (EUR) Consumer Confidence
  • 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) CB Leading Index m/m
  • 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
  • Day 1 – (All) Jackson Hole Symposium
  • 10:45 pm GMT – (NZD) Retail Sales q/q
  • 10:45 pm GMT – (NZD) Core Retail Sales q/q
  • 11:30 pm GMT – (JPY) National Core CPI y/y

Friday, August 23, 2019

  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Retail Sales m/m
  • 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Corporate Profits q/q
  • 1:00 pm GMT – (CNY) CB Leading Index m/m
  • 1:00 pm GMT – (EUR) Belgian NBB Business Climate
  • 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) New Home Sales
  • Day 2 – (All) Jackson Hole Symposium

Saturday, August 24, 2019

  • Day 3 – (All) Jackson Hole Symposium

Sunday, August 25, 2019

  • 10:45 pm GMT – (NZD) Trade Balance
  • &more…

 

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