Monday 16th November: European Open Briefing

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Monday 16th November: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 1.00 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.50 %, Hang Seng lost 1.90 %, ASX 200 declined 0.60 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1092 (+1.05 %), Silver at $14.32 (+0.85 %), WTI Oil at $41.08 (+0.80 %), Brent Oil at $45.00 (+1.10 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.24, UK 10 year yield at 1.98, German 10 year yield at 0.55

News & Data:

  • Japan GDP SA (QoQ) Q3, P: -0.2% (exp -0.1% prev rev -0.2%)
  • Japan Annualised GDP SA (QoQ) Q3, P: -0.8% (exp -0.2% prev rev -0.7%)
  • Japan Nominal GDP SA (QoQ) Q3, P: 0.0% (exp -0.2% prev rev 0.2%)
  • UK Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) Nov: -1.3% (prev 0.6%)
  • UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) Nov: 6.2% (prev 5.6%)
  • New Zealand Retail Sales Ex-Inflation (QoQ) Q3: 1.6% (exp 1.4% prev rev 0.0%)
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan Reference Rate At 6.3750 (prev 6.3655)
  • Japanese EconMin Amari: Economy Remains In Moderate Recovery Despite Some Weakness — RTRS
  • Amari: Downside Risks From Overseas Persist
  • Chinese President Xi: Chinese Economy Predicted To Grow About 7% — Xinhua
  • IMF’s Lagarde: Yuan Poised To Be A Global Currency — SCM
  • Dubai Stocks Slump Most Since August As Mideast Markets Recoil — LM

Markets Update:

The Euro fell in early Asian trade as a reaction to the Paris terrorist attack on Friday night. EUR/USD opened at 1.0740, around 20 pips lower from the NY close on Friday. Due to poor liquidity in early Monday trading, the pair fell to a fresh low at 1.0685, but quickly retraced the move. It spent the rest of the session consolidating between 1.0715 and 1.0730.

The JPY benefited from the risk-off sentiment and USD/JPY opened 20 pips lower at 122.35. It reached a low of 122.25, but ran into decent bids there and rallied back to 122.60, filling the weekend gap. Expect good intraday support at 122.20/25 and 122.00, while key resistance now lies at 123.00.

The commodity currencies were quiet overnight. AUD/USD was caught in a 0.7100-30 range, while NZD/USD consolidated between 0.6520 and 0.6550. USD/CAD opened slightly lower, at 1.3305, but retraced the move and rose to a high of 1.3335.

Upcoming Events:

  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
  • 10:15 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Manufacturing Sales
  • 13:30 GMT – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

The Week Ahead (Key Data & Events):

Tuesday, November 16th

  • 00:30 GMT – RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 09:00 GMT – Italian Trade Balance
  • 09:00 GMT – Norwegian GDP
  • 09:30 GMT – UK CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 13:30 GMT – US CPI
  • 14:15 GMT – US Industrial Production
  • 14:15 GMT – US Manufacturing Production
  • 15:00 GMT – US NAHB Housing Market Index

Wednesday, November 18th

  • 10:00 GMT – Swiss ZEW Expectations
  • 13:30 GMT – US Building Permits
  • 13:30 GMT – US Housing Starts
  • 19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 23:50 GMT – Japanese Trade Balance

Thursday, November 19th

  • 06:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
  • 07:00 GMT – Swiss Trade Balance
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales
  • 12:30 GMT – ECB Meeting Minutes
  • 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 15:00 GMT – US CB Leading Index
  • 15:00 GMT – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday, November 20th

  • 05:00 GMT – Bank of Japan Monthly Report
  • 07:00 GMT – German PPI
  • 08:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian CPI
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Retail Sales
  • 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks

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