Monday 16th May: European Open Briefing

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Monday 16th May: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.20 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.20 %, Hang Seng rose 1.25 %, ASX 200 rallied 0.60 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1278 (+0.40 %), Silver at $17.30 (+1.00 %), WTI Oil at $46.85 (+1.35 %), Brent Oil at $48.48 (+1.35 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.71, UK 10 year yield at 1.38, German 10 year yield at 0.12

News & Data:

  • China Retail Sales (YoY) Apr: 6.0% (exp 6.5% prev 6.8%)
  • China Industrial Production (YoY) Apr: 5.8% (exp 6.1% prev 5.8%)
  • China FAI (YoY) Apr: 10.5% (exp 11.0% prev 10.7%)
  • Japan PPI (MoM) Apr: -0.3% (exp 0.2% prev -0.1%)
  • Japan PPI (YoY) Apr: -4.2% (exp -3.7% prev -3.8%)
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan At 6.5343(prev 6.5246)
  • Japanese PM Abe: Correction Of Overly Strong Yen Resulted From Abenomics
  • Abe: If QQE Was Not Launched Would Still Be In Deflation
  • New Zealand PM Key: Economy Performing Well — BBG
  • Key: Lowering Income Tax Remains Priority For Government
  • Key: Government Putting Debt Reduction Above Tax Cuts For Now
  • Japan leads Asia to modest gains; dollar steady – RTRS
  • Fiscal constraints mean BOJ likely to keep helicopter grounded – RTRS
  • Oil prices rise on Nigeria, Venezuela disruptions – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 22K vs. 23K short prior week
  • GBP short 35K vs. 40K short prior week
  • JPY long 59K vs. 61K long prior week
  • CAD long 26K vs. 19K long prior week
  • CHF long 7K vs. 7K long prior week
  • AUD long 38K vs. 52K long prior week
  • NZD long 9K vs. 9K long prior week

Markets Update:

EUR/USD opened around 1.1310 on Sunday and spent the rest of the session in a 1.1300-20 range. Support is seen at 1.1282, while resistance lies at 1.1350/60. GBP/USD started the day at 1.4350, little changed from Friday's close. The pair consolidated between 1.4345 and 1.4370 in Asia. USD/JPY was supported by the rally in the Nikkei and rose from 108.50 to almost 109.00.

The commodity currencies were also bid. The Australian Dollar rose from 0.7245 to 0.7290 against the US Dollar. NZD/USD rallied from 0.6745 to 0.6775, while USD/CAD declined from 1.2960 to 1.2925.

Upcoming Events:

  • 13:30 BST – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, May 17th

  • 02:30 BST – RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 04:00 BST – New Zealand Inflation Expectations
  • 05:30 BST – Japan Industrial Production
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss PPI
  • 09:00 BST – Italian Trade Balance
  • 09:30 BST – UK CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance
  • 13:30 BST – US Building Permits
  • 13:30 BST – US CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US Housing Starts
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Manufacturing Sales
  • 14:15 BST – US Manufacturing Production
  • 14:15 BST – US Industrial Production
  • 17:00 BST – FOMC Member Williams speaks
  • 17:00 BST – FOMC Member Lockhart speaks
  • 21:35 BST – US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Wednesday, May 18th

  • 00:50 BST – Japanese GDP
  • 01:00 BST – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks
  • 01:30 BST – Australian MI Leading Index
  • 02:00 BST – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks
  • 02:30 BST – Australian Wage Price Index
  • 09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change
  • 09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings
  • 09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 19:00 BST – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, May 19th

  • 02:30 BST – Australian Employment Change
  • 02:30 BST – Australian Unemployment Rate
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account
  • 09:30 BST – UK Retail Sales
  • 12:30 BST – ECB Meeting Minutes
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – US Phily Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Wholesale Sales
  • 15:00 BST – US CB Leading Index
  • 15:30 BST – FOMC Member Dudley speaks

Friday, May 20th

  • 07:00 BST – German PPI
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales
  • 14:00 BST – FOMC Member Tarullo speaks
  • 15:00 BST – US Existing Home Sales
  • 20:30 BST – CFTC Positioning Data

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