Monday 15th August: European Open Briefing

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Monday 15th August: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.35 %, Shanghai Composite rallied 2.70 %, hang Seng gained 0.80 %, ASX 200 rose 0.10 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1343 (+0.05 %), Silver at $19.80 (+0.50 %), WTI Oil at $44.80 (+0.75 %), Brent Oil at $47.25 (+0.55 %)
• Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.51, UK 10 year yield at 0.53, German 10 year yield at -0.10
 
News & Data:
• Japanese GDP (QoQ) Q2: 0.0% (est 0.2%, prev 0.5%)
• Japanese Industrial Production (MoM) Jun: 2.3% (prev 1.9%)
• Japan Economy Minister Ishihara: Economy showing weaknesses but recovery continues moderately as a trend – RTRS
• Japan Fin Min Aso: Q2 consumer spending and exports were weak – RTRS
• PBOC Fixes Yuan Reference Rate at 6.6430 (prev 6.6543)
• Brexit could be delayed to late-2019 as government not ready – RTRS
• Negative rates seen reducing Japan big banks' profits by USD 2.96bln – Nikkei
 
CFTC Positioning Data:
• EUR 98K short versus 104K short last week
• GBP 90K short versus 83K short last week
• JPY  49K long versus 42K long last week
• CHF 0.1K long versus 1.7K short last week
• CAD 15K short versus 18K short last week
• AUD 35K long versus 31K long last week
 
Markets Update:
EUR/USD opened at 1.1165, unchanged from Friday's close. Flows were light and the pair consolidated in a 1.1155-68 range. Meanwhile, the Pound remains under pressure. GBP/USD started the new trading week at 1.2920 and rallied to 1.2940, but it ran into decent offers there and fell back to 1.2920.
 
USD/JPY opened at 101.10, slightly lower from Friday's close. Price action was quiet, despite the weak Japanese GDP release overnight. USD/JPY rose to a high of 101.45, but ran out of momentum there and fell back to 101.25.
 
AUD/USD traded 0.7635-60 overnight, while NZD/USD spent the Asian session in a 0.7165-95 range. 
 
No major data releases today, so it could remain quiet. However, there will be a fair amount of economic data this week, especially from the UK. Please see the calendar below for further details.
 
Upcoming Events:
• 08:15 BST – Swiss PPI
• 13:30 BST – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index
• 21:30 BST – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks
 
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, August 16th
• 02:30 BST – RBA Meeting Minutes
• 09:30 BST – UK CPI
• 10:00 BST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
• 10:00 BST – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
• 13:30 BST – US Building Permits
• 13:30 BST – US CPI
• 13:30 BST – US Housing Starts
• 14:15 BST – US Industrial Production
• 14:15 BST – US Manufacturing Production
• 17:30 BST – FOMC Member Lockhart speaks
• 18:00 BST – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
• 23:45 BST – New Zealand Employment Change
• 23:45 BST – New Zealand Unemployment Rate
 
Wednesday, August 17th
• 02:30 BST – Australia Wage Price Index
• 09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings
• 09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change
• 09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate
• 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
• 19:00 BST – FOMC Meeting Minutes
 
Thursday, August 18th
• 00:50 BST – Japan Trade Balance
• 02:30 BST – Australia Employment Change
• 02:30 BST – Australia Unemployment Rate
• 02:30 BST – China House Prices
• 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account
• 09:30 BST – UK Retail Sales
• 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
• 12:30 BST – ECB Meeting Minutes
• 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
• 13:30 BST – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
• 15:00 BST – US CB Leading Index
• 15:05 BST – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
• 21:00 BST – FOMC Member Williams speaks
 
Friday, August 19th
• 07:00 BST – German PPI
• 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI
• 13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales
• 20:30 BST – CTFC Positioning Data

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