Monday 13th November: European Open Briefing

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Monday 13th November: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 1.32 %, Shanghai Composite rose by 0.32 %, Hang Seng up 0.08 %, ASX 200 lost 0.13 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1277.23 (0.25 %), Silver at $16.90 (0.21 %), WTI Oil at $56.80 (0.11 %), Brent Oil at $63.55 (0.05 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.39, UK 10-year yield at 1.34, German 10-year yield at 0.40

News & Data:

  • (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 2.6 % vs 2.4 % Previous
  • (GBP) Manufacturing Production m/m 0.7 % vs 0.3 % expected
  • (GBP) Goods Trade Balance -11.3 B vs -12.9 B expected
  • (GBP) Industrial Production m/m 0.7 % vs 0.3 % expected
  • (EUR) Italian Industrial Production m/m -1.3 % vs -0.3 % expected
  • Fed's Harker stands by call for rate hike next month
  • Pound retreats as trouble mounts for May, dollar crawls higher- RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR long 72K vs 84K long last week. The EURUSD this week is higher.
  • GBP long 1K vs 1K short last week. There is no net position so who cares.
  • JPY short 119K vs 116K short last week. The JPY is down about 40 pips from last Friday's close
  • CHF short 21K vs 12K short last week. CHF is higher by about 40 pips
  • CAD long 58K vs 72K long last week. The CAD is higher by about 80 pips.
  • AUD long 52k vs 57K long last week. The AUDUSD is up 20 pips
  • NZD short 6K vs 1K long last week. Small position. 

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific equity markets were mixed early on Monday as Iinvestors seek fresh motivation after last week’s run to record highs. Japanese markets lead the losses today as the Nikkei fell  over 1.0%. This is in continuation to the U.S. stocks closing mostly lower on Friday.  The British pound took a hit as Markets digested headlines that 40 Conservative members of Parliament intended to sign a letter of no-confidence in British Prime Minister May as Brexit talks dragged on.

USDJPY is currently seen trading at 113.44 down from session highs of 113.71. Overall the Yen is down over 0.1 percent against the US Dollar. The Nikkei Stock Average finished morning trading down over 1.3 % in continuation to a 0.8% loss on Friday, its largest percentage loss in two months, amid broad regional weakness.

EURUSD is down a few points net on the session currently valued at 1.1654 as the EUR slipped 0.1 percent against the US Dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies was up 0.1 % and is currently valued at 94.47. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was at 2.39 percent, down 1 basis point after climbing 6 basis points on Friday.

AUDUSD opened lower early on Monday reaching lows of 0.7642 but has since recovered and is currently seen trading at 0.7662 as RBA's Debelle spoke, he was upbeat on business investment improving. Australia’s 10-year yield increased one basis point Monday, to 2.62 percent.  The New Zealand dollar followed a similar price action on Monday and is currently trading at 0.6932 remaining net unchanged.

Upcoming Events:

  • All Day – (CAD) Bank Holiday
  • 00:10 GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Harker Speaks
  • 07:10 GMT – (USD) German WPI m/m
  • 10:00 GMT – (EUR) PPI m/m
  • 17:45 GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
  • 19:00 GMT – (USD) Federal Budget Balance

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, November 14th

  • 02:00 GMT – (CNY) Industrial Production y/y
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
  • 10:00 GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 10:00 GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 10:00 GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
  • 10:00 GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) PPI m/m

Wednesday, November 15th

  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
  • 15:30 GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, November 16th

  • 00:30 GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
  • 00:30 GMT – (AUD) Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
  • 14:00 GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Friday, November 17th

  • 08:30 GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 13:30 GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Building Permits
  • 13:30 GMT – (USD) Housing Starts

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