Monday 13th July: European Open Briefing

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Monday 13th July: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.60 %, Shanghai Composite rose 2.30 %, Hang Seng gained 0.15 %, ASX 0.70 % higher
  • Commodities: Gold at $1161 (+0.30 %), Silver at $15.50 (+0.15 %), WTI Oil at $51.94 (-1.50 %), Brent Oil at $57.98 (-1.75 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.39, UK 10 year yield at 2.09, German 10 year yield at 0.90

 

News & Data:

  • China Trade Balance CNY46.54bln, Expected: CNY55.70bln, Previous: CNY59.49bln
  • China Exports 2.8 % y/y, Expected: -0.2 %, Previous: -2.5 %
  • China Imports -6.1 % y/y, Expected: -15.0 %, Previous: -17.6 %
  • New Zealand FPI 0.5 %, Previous: 0.4 %
  • Japanese official says unlikely to change imputed rent in 2016 CPI update: MNI
  • Talk that compromise close to being reached in Greece – sticking points are IMF involvement after 2016 and €50bn privatisation fund
  • Euro zone argues into the night with Greece on bailout terms – RTRS
  • Euro steadies, EU leaders talk Greek compromise – RTRS
  • Oil prices fall as Iran nuclear deal seems likely – RTRS

 

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • GBP shorts 22,973 vs 12,759K shorts prior week
  • EUR shorts 99,266 vs 99,306 shorts prior week
  • JPY shorts 63,629 vs. 78,822 shorts prior week
  • CHF long 6,121 vs 6,855 longs prior week
  • AUD shorts 22,197 vs 12,031 shorts prior week
  • CAD shorts 32,268 vs 23450 shorts prior week

 

Upcoming Events:

  • 14:00 BST – Euro Group Meeting
  • 19:00 BST – US Budget Balance

 

The Week Ahead (Key Data/Events):

Tuesday, July 14th

  • 02:30 BST – Australia NAB Business Confidence
  • 07:00 BST – German CPI
  • 08:00 BST – Spanish CPI
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss PPI
  • 08:30 BST – Swedish CPI
  • 09:00 BST – Italian CPI
  • 09:30 BST – UK CPI
  • 10:00 BST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Industrial Production
  • 13:30 BST – US Retail Sales
  • 13:55 BST – US Redbook

Wednesday, July 15th

  • 01:30 BST – Australia Consumer Sentiment
  • 03:00 BST – Chinese GDP
  • 03:00 BST – Chinese Industrial Production
  • 03:00 BST – Chinese Retail Sales
  • 07:30 BST – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
  • 07:45 BST – French CPI
  • 09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings
  • 09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 BST – UK Employment Change
  • 13:30 BST – US PPI
  • 13:30 BST – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 15:00 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
  • 15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
  • 16:15 BST – BoC Governor Poloz speaks
  • 19:00 BST – US Beige Book
  • 20:00 BST – FOMC Member Williams speaks
  • 23:45 BST – New Zealand CPI

Thursday, July 16th

  • 02:30 BST – Australia NAB Business Confidence
  • 06:00 BST – Bank of Japan Monthly Report
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales
  • 09:00 BST – Italian Trade Balance
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance
  • 12:45 BST – ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference
  • 15:00 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 15:00 BST – US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 19:00 BST – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks

Friday, July 17th

  • 13:30 BST – US Building Permits
  • 13:30 BST – US CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US Housing Starts
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI
  • 15:00 BST – US Michigan Inflation Expectations

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