IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 September 2021

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What happened across the Asia session?

The relative strength of the Yen, among other safe-haven counterparts, gold and CHF, pared against the US dollar, as expected.

What does it mean for the Europe and US Sessions?

A lack of major data releases today would set position considerations base on upcoming significant events next week, where the Lonnie may face volatility from its Federal Election and the Aussie receive expected dovishness in the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

The Dollar Index (DXY) Update

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Traders would be looking for tapering signals at next week’s FOMC meeting. The latest August jobs report and inflation, in which both came in lower-than-expected, may push a tapering announcement to the November FOMC meeting.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU) Update

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The latest strength seen in the US retail sales figures eased concerns over a sharp slowdown in economic growth and raises hope for an official plan to wind down asset purchases. The precious metal would remain pressured from an improved environment for tapering.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ECB has refuted a story by the Financial Times that claims the central bank’s unpublished inflation estimate models predicts the 2% target being hit in 2025 and bringing forward the possibility of a rate hike.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The multi-month resistance around the 0.9230 region is finally taken, following a much stronger-than-expected US retail sales data. The lack of data releases today should allow the 0.9230 region to act as throwback support in the event of profit taking activities before the weekend.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

UK Chancellor Sunak plans to introduce new fiscal rules to rein in borrowing in an upcoming budget next month. Public debt stands at about one-time of GDP, raising fears that a rise in interest rates would dent public finances.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The firm price of oil and record high inflation that could lead to further monetary tightening by the Bank of Canada is likely to support the Lonnie today.

The country will be having its Federal Election on next Monday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

On the supply front, oil production at the US Gulf of Mexico is likely to revert to normal levels by early next week. Currently, only about one-third of normal volumes remain shut-in. Libya’s NOC announced that crude exports are back online following protests.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish