IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 November 2022

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What happened in the US session?

The DXY and most major currencies remained relatively unchanged as the US market was closed for Thanksgiving.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Look for the major currencies to trade with lower volatility, with a possible retracement if the DXY strength recovers as markets head toward the weekend. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY continues to trade at the 105.75 price level as markets traded with lower liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday. With no major news events for the DXY today, the market is likely to continue with lower volatility. Look for the DXY to find support at the current price level and retrace briefly heading into the weekend, with the 106 price level a possible target. 

Central Bank Notes:

  • Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75bps taking interest rates to 4.00%
  • Next meeting is on 15 December 2022
  • Further rate increases can be anticipated, with rate cuts expected only if Fed Reserve is confident inflation is moving back down to 2%

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 


Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold trades at the 1756 price level with very little price volatility. As Gold continues to trade along the 1756, the next directional bias will be heavily dependent on the DXY. If the DXY breaks below the current support level, Gold could continue to climb toward 1780 and the 1800 key resistance level. Alternatively, if the DXY retraces upward, Gold could trade lower briefly with 1750 forming a strong support level. 

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 


The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from AUD today?

The AUDUSD continued to climb through yesterday’s trading session as the price approaches the 0.6780 price area. The AUDUSD is anticipated to continue with the uptrend, if price is able to break above 0.68 with the key resistance level of 0.69 a target. However, it is likely that the AUDUSD could consolidate and retrace briefly heading into the weekend. 

Central Bank Notes:

  • Cash rate stands at 2.85% 
  • Future rate rises will be determined by data, the outlook for inflation, and the labour market.
  • Next meeting on 6 December 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 


The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZDUSD trades higher approaching the 0.63 round number resistance level through the previous trading session. The NZDUSD could retrace briefly to test the support level of 0.6250 and possibly 0.62 before trading strongly higher again. For the NZDUSD to climb higher toward the 0.6455 resistance level, the DXY would have to break below the current support level and trade significantly lower. 

Central Bank Notes:

  • Cash rate stands at 4.25% 
  • Central bank is likely to continue with the current path of rate adjustment
  • Next meeting is on 21 February 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 


The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from JPY today?

The USDJPY saw the highest price volatility in comparison to the other major currencies. The USDJPY broke lower from 139.45 to reach the 138 round number and key support level. Although price has rebounded slightly, back to the 138.40 price level, further downside can be expected, especially if the DXY continues to weaken. Look for the USDJPY to break below the 138 price level to signal a continuation of the downtrend, with the next key support level at 135.50. 

Central Bank Notes:

  • Cash rate stands at -0.1%  
  • Expects Short- And Long-Term Policy Rates To Remain At ‘Present Or Lower’ Levels
  • Next meeting is on 20 December  2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish