Friday 5th May: European Open Briefing

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Friday 5th May: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Shanghai Composite fell 0.70 %, Hang Seng lost 1.20 %, ASX 200 declined 0.75 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1231 (+0.20 %), Silver at $16.37 (+0.40 %), WTI Oil at $44.28 (-2.75 %), Brent Oil at $47.20 (-2.50 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.35, UK 10-year yield at 1.12, German 10-year yield at 0.38

News & Data

  • Hong Kong Nikkei PMI Apr: 51.1 (prev 49.9)
  • PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8884 (prev fix 6.8957 prev close 6.8956)
  • RBA: Judged Holding Policy Steady Consistent with Sustainable Growth, Medium-Term Inflation Target
  • RBA: An Appreciating A$ Would Complicate Economy's Transition
  • RBA: Keeps Underlying Inflation Forecasts Unchanged
  • RBA: Wage Growth Unlikely to Slow Any Further but Will Remain Low
  • Asian stocks fall for third day as cracks in commodities widen – RTRS

Markets Update:

The focus overnight was on commodity prices, which came under pressure. WTI Oil broke below $47 support yesterday, and traded as low as $43.70 in Asia. Traders are concerned about renewed oversupply as the US output increases, and the effects of the OPEC reductions are fading. The charts suggest WTI will continue to extend losses to at least $42 in the near-term.

The weakness in the commodities market weighed on equities as well. Asian stock markets declined again, with the Hang Seng losing more than 1 % on the day.

In FX, the Euro rallied ahead of the jobs data, while USD/JPY reversed. Resistance ahead of 113 proved as though, and the risk-off sentiment put the pair under pressure. Key support is now noted at 111.50 and then 110.80.

Meanwhile, traders are confident that the outcome of the French election on Sunday is certain – with centrist candidate Macron winning. EUR/USD reached 1.0987 in Asia. Resistance ahead of 1.10 is heavy, but should US data disappoint today, the pair will likely break above it.

Upcoming Events:

  • 13:30 BST – US NFP
  • 13:30 BST – US Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 BST – US Average Hourly Earnings
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Employment Change
  • 16:30 BST – FOMC Member Fischer speaks
  • 17:45 BST – FOMC Member Williams speaks
  • 18:30 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 20:30 BST – CFTC Positioning Data

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