Friday 31st March: European Open Briefing

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Friday 31st March: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.60 %, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng both rose 0.05 %, ASX 200 gained 0.10 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1240 (-0.35 %), Silver at $18.12 (-0.50 %), WTI Oil at $50.25 (-0.20 %), Brent Oil at $53.00 (-0.20 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.42, UK 10-year yield at 1.12, German 10-year yield at 0.34

News & Data:

  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI Mar: 51.8 (exp 51.6; prev 51.6)
  • Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar: 55.1 (prev 54.2)
  • Japanese Industrial Production (MoM) Feb P: 2.0% (exp 1.2%; prev -0.4%)
  • Japanese Industrial Production (YoY) Feb P: 4.8% (exp 3.9%; prev 3.7%)
  • Japanese Unemployment Rate Feb: 2.8% (exp 3.0%; prev 3.0%)
  • Japanese Overall Household Spending (YoY) Feb: -3.8% (exp -1.7%; prev -1.2%)
  • Japanese National CPI (YoY) Feb: 0.3% (exp 0.2%; prev 0.4%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex-Food, Energy (YoY) Feb: 0.1% (exp 0.1%; prev 0.2%)
  • Australian Private Sector Credit (MoM) Feb: 0.3% (exp 0.5%; 0.2%)
  • Australian Private Sector Credit (YoY) Feb: 5.0% (exp 5.3%; prev 5.4%)
  • New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook Mar: 38.8 (prev 37.2)
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence Mar: 11.3 (prev 16.6)
  • New Zealand Building Consents (MoM) Feb: 14.0% (prev 0.8%)
  • South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) Feb: -3.4% (exp -0.3%; prev 3.3%; rev prev 2.9%)
  • South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) Feb: 6.6% (exp 8.0%; prev 1.7%; rev prev 1.4%)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence Mar: -6 (exp -7; prev -6)
  • PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8993 (prev fix 6.8889; prev close 6.8886)

Markets Update:

The US Dollar appreciated after a stronger than expected US GDP number and hawkish talk from several FOMC members. EUR/USD fell below support at 1.07 and is likely to extend losses to 1.06 in the near-term. Meanwhile, USD/JPY rallied above 112 in Asia and reached 112.15 after the strong Chinese economic numbers were released. Offers are noted around 112.20. However, above that level, there is very little resistance until 112.80-85.

GBP/USD bounced yesterday, despite the broad Dollar strength. The pair briefly rallied above 1.25, and could test 1.26 resistance soon. Worries about Brexit are still present, but those are rather medium- to long-term. In the short-term, traders are more concerned with the UK economic numbers and what the Bank of England will do.

Flows in the commodity currencies remain very light. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have barely moved this week. Even USD/CAD is consolidating in a rather tight range, despite the increased volatility in Oil prices.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:00 GMT – German Retail Sales
  • 07:45 GMT – French CPI
  • 09:00 GMT – German Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 GMT – UK GDP
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – Italian CPI
  • 13:30 GMT – US Core PCE Price Index
  • 13:30 GMT – US Personal Income
  • 13:30 GMT – US Personal Spending
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian GDP
  • 15:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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