Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Shanghai Composite gained 1.35 %, Hang Seng rose 1.00 %, ASX declined 1.50 %, Nikkei closed for a holiday
  • Commodities: Gold at $1195 (+0.10 %), Silver at $16.54 (-0.30 %), WTI Oil at $61.45 (+1.75 %), Brent Oil at $68.35 (+1.10 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.182, UK 10 year yield at 1.962, German 10 year yield at 0.512

News & Data:

  • New Zealand Employment Change 0.7 % q/q, Expected: 0.8 %, Previous: 1.2 %
  • New Zealand Unemployment Rate 5.8 %, Expected: 5.5 %, Previous: 5.7 %
  • New Zealand Participation Rate 69.6 %, Expected: 69.4 %, Previous: 69.7 %
  • Australia Retail Sales 0.3 % m/m, Expected: 0.4 %, Previous: 0.7 %
  • Australia Retail Sales 0.7 % q/q, Expected: 0.9 %, Previous: 1.2 %
  • Australia HIA New Home Sales 4.4 % m/m, Previous: 1.1 %
  • China HSBC Services PMI 52.9, Expected: 53.1, Previous: 52.3
  • Hong Kong Manufacturing PMI 48.6, Previous: 49.6

Markets Update:

The main event overnight was the New Zealand employment data, which missed expectations. Employment change arrived at 0.7 % q/q vs. 0.8 % expected and the unemployment rate increased to 5.8 % versus a forecast of a decline to 5.5 %. The Kiwi Dollar took a hit immediately after the data, but losses against the Greenback have been rather limited so far. The huge flows have been seen in the cross pairs, especially AUD/NZD. The market was caught still relatively short there and once we took out the April high at 1.0528, the squeeze started all over again. While the pair looks slightly overextended in the short-term, it looks like we have a medium-term bottom in place at 1.0020 and further gains could be ahead.

The Euro is still very well bid as Bund yields continue to soar higher and DAX posting fresh lows. The move in Bunds has caught many by surprise and while the recent rally doesn’t look that impressive on the higher timeframe charts, it sure has done some damage. GBP has remained supported despite weak UK data recently, so it could be a sign that further gains are ahead, with a test of 1.53 near.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:45 BST – Italian Services PMI
  • 08:50 BST – French Services PMI
  • 08:55 BST – German Services PMI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Retail Sales
  • 13:15 BST – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 14:15 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 15:00 BST – Canadian Ivey PMI
  • 18:30 BST – FOMC Member Lockhart speaks