EURUSD:

Weekly view: The weekly timeframe still shows that the Euro is trending south, and has been for nearly a year now. Despite this, the weekly demand area seen at 1.0333-1.0502 has been able to support this market since mid-March. The outlook for this pair is still south in our opinion and will only change once/if a convincing push above weekly supply at 1.1449-1.1278 is seen.

Daily view: From this angle, we can see that yesterday’s action hit, and slightly rebounded from a daily resistance zone at 1.1051-1.0918. If further selling is seen from this point, there’s a good chance that the Euro could see a decline in value down to at least daily demand coming in at 1.0658-1.0722.

4hr view: The 4hr timeframe shows that the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.0859 and then shortly after sold off down to 4hr demand positioned at 1.0783-1.0826. It was at this point Europe opened for business, and they clearly wanted to take advantage of the available liquidity from the Asian session, so the Euro currency was bought, consequently faking above 1.0900 and hitting the 4hr supply area coming in at 1.0953-1.0922.

For those who read our last report on the Euro, you may recall us mentioning that we were keen to short this area of 4hr supply (for reasons, see chart). As you can see, a reaction has been seen and price has, at the time of writing, now closed below potential round-number support 1.0900 (a good sign prices will likely continue south). As of yet though, our team has yet to confirm this zone on the lower timeframes, well done to anyone who already has a position here! With all of the above taken into consideration, our main focus for today will be watching the 5/15 minute timeframes to see if price can confirm further selling will take place from here. In the event that an entry south is spotted, we’ll ultimately be looking around the 4hr demand area below at 1.0783-1.0826 to take partial profits.

EURO

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.0953-1.0922 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: depends on where one confirms this area).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly view: Following the clear close above the weekly swap level 1.4989 last week, price is, as far as we can see, now free to advance towards weekly supply coming in at 1.5551-1.5391.

Daily view: Yesterday’s daily bull candle closed within a daily swap area seen at 1.5298-1.5208. This zone is likely going to be a key obstacle for the buyers to overcome should they want to reach the aforementioned weekly supply area this week.

4hr view: The open 1.5174 saw Cable sell off from 4hr supply seen at 1.5222-1.5189. This move consequently forced the market to aggressively test the recently broken 4hr Quasimodo line at 1.5136, which, as you can see, was clearly enough to support an advance above the aforementioned 4hr supply area.

Its decision time now on this pair! If the buyers can successfully retest the recently broken area of 4hr supply and hold some ground, then the majority of our team favor a push higher to 1.5330 (located a little below the aforementioned weekly supply area). That being said, lower timeframe confirmation will have to be seen before we commit capital to this idea.

If, however, a close below this area is seen today, this would, in effect, be our cue to begin watching for price to retest this area as supply for a possible intraday short back down to the 4hr Quasimodo line mentioned above

Cable

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly view: From a weekly timeframe perspective, very little has changed over the past three months. The overall trend clearly still remains southbound, and the buyers and sellers continue to battle for position around a weekly demand area seen at 0.7449-0.7678.

Daily view: The daily timeframe on the other hand, shows that price is now nibbling at the underside of the daily range upper limit coming in at 0.7875.

4hr view: The open 0.7819 saw the Aussie pair sell off from the 0.7836 mark. This move consequently forced the market to test the 0.7800 barrier, which was clearly enough to support an advance up to 4hr supply at 0.7883-0.7852.

For those who read our previous report on this pair, you may recall that we were, and still are very interested in shorting this 4hr supply area (reasons on the chart). As you can see, a reaction is taking place, but as of yet, our team has not been able to confirm selling strength here on the lower timeframe structures. Therefore, today’s objective is to continue watching for confirmation to form on either the 5 or 15 minute timeframes. If an entry is seen, we’ll be looking to take partial profits around the 0.7840 mark, with the 0.7800 number in mind for a second take-profit zone.

Aussie

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.7850/0.7889 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Stops will likely be placed above the 0.7900 round number).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly view: For the past month or so, the buyers and sellers have been seen battling for position within a weekly demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40. Our bias will remain north on this pair as long as price continues to hold within this weekly demand zone.

Daily view: From the daily scale, we can see that an inverted daily pin bar candle printed yesterday just above the daily trendline extended from the low 115.55, which, as you can probably see, also boasts additional supportive confluence from daily support coming in just below it at 118.62 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr view: The open 118.83 saw the USD/JPY pair rally, consuming 119.00 along the way and stopping just below a 4hr supply area seen at 119.64-119.46.

For anyone who read our previous report on this pair, you may recall us mentioning to watch the Harmonic Gartley reversal zone at 118.85/118.67 for buying pressure yesterday. This supportive base, coupled with the fact that price is trading not only within weekly demand, but also around a daily support with a converging trendline (see above) makes this an incredibly confluent area of support, so the recent rally from this zone was not really much of a surprise to us. Unfortunately, we were not able to catch this bounce as we were not at our desks! Well done to anyone who did though!

So, where do we go from here? Well, we can see price is still holding above the Harmonic support/round-number 119.00. Assuming we can spot lower timeframe buying confirmation here, we’d likely enter long, targeting the 4hr supply area above at 119.64-119.46. In the event that the harmonic support gives way, however, all eyes will be firmly focused on the daily support level at 118.62 for buyers to come into the market.

Yen

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 118.87/118.52 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Ideally below 118.52).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly view: Following the weekly indecision candle that printed last week within the weekly swap area at 1.2265-1.2092, selling is currently being seen on the weekly timeframe. Should we see prices close below this weekly swap area at the end of the week, the path south will then likely be clear towards a weekly swap level seen at 1.1814.

Daily view: Yesterday’s daily candle closed just below a daily swap level coming in at 1.2086 (located just below the weekly swap area mentioned above). In the event that this number can now provide resistance to this market, its likely prices will sell off down to the daily demand area at 1.1931-1.2045 sometime today.

4hr view: The open 1.2188 shows that the USD/CAD hesitated a little around the 4hr swap area at 1.2179-1.2205, but eventually sold off down to a 4hr demand area at 1.2050-1.2094 (located just above the daily demand area mentioned above), which as you can see, encapsulates the aforementioned daily swap level.

Given that price is currently trading below the weekly swap area (1.2265-1.2092) at the moment, and the fact that price has also closed below the daily swap level 1.2086, buying at the current 4hr demand area would only be of interest to us if we saw very tasty lower timeframe buying strength here, which as of yet we have not! Therefore, opting to sit this one out until more favorable price action presents itself may be the best path to take.

CAD

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1.2050-1.2094 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.2046).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly view: Overall, the weekly timeframe shows that the buyers are still managing to hold the market above support formed at 0.9512. Should a convincing close below this number be seen this week, this will very likely free the path south down towards a weekly demand area seen at 0.9170-0.9343.

Daily view: The daily timeframe shows that a consolidation zone is currently being chiseled out on top of the aforementioned weekly support level. Upper limits are seen in the form of a daily supply area at 0.9904-0.9771; the lower limits represent a daily demand area coming in at 0.9449-0.9545. The recent selling has, as you can see, placed price action firmly within the lower limits of this daily range, so for anyone considering shorting this pair today, you may want to take a note of this.

4hr view: A few candles after the market opened at 0.9539 the USD/CHF pair aggressively sold off down to the 0.9500 handle, which as you can see, rebounded price just as aggressively back up to just below a 4hr Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 0.9573.

Considering the market’s overall position on the higher timeframes at the moment (see above), longs would be more favorable in our opinion. However, buying at current prices would mean buying into the 4hr Quasimodo resistance level mentioned above, which is not something we’d feel comfortable taking part in. For us to be convinced that there’s room for prices to move north here, we’d need to see a close above the 0.9600 handle, as the path north appears free from there up to at least 0.9700. With regards to selling this market, one could look to scalp a small position from the aforementioned 4hr Quasimodo resistance level if price reaches this high, but from a higher-timeframe perspective this would be considered a high-risk trade.

Therefore, with everything taking into consideration, opting to stand on the sidelines here may very well be the best position to take.

SWISS

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

US 30:

Weekly view: Although the overall trend has been strong since early 2009, a temporary ‘ceiling’ to this index has formed around the 18098 region, and has remained strong for an impressive four months!

Daily view: The buyers and sellers continue to be seen battling for position around the underside of daily supply coming in at 18207-18117. In the event that the sellers are victorious here, the most we see the DOW dropping to is the daily trendline support extended from the low 17033.

4hr view: As mentioned in the previous analysis, the DOW has been forming what we believe to be a long-term 4hr bullish pennant (upper trendline extends from the 18279 high, while the lower was drawn from 17556).

Shortly after the DOW Jones Index opened at 18097, price broke north and closed above both the upper limit of the 4hr pennant and its converging 4hr resistance level seen at 18110. This buying however, was short-lived, price aggressively sold off back down to the 4hr swap area coming in at 18053-18023.

In our opinion, we’re currently at a critical juncture on this index at the moment. A close above and retest of this 4hr pennant formation and its converging 4hr resistance level 18110 would likely suggest that the bulls are gaining further strength in this market. Consequent to seeing a successful retest, we’d begin watching the lower timeframes for buying confirmation, as the runway north would then likely be clear all the way up to 4hr supply seen at 18279-18250. The reason we believe prices could move thus far is simply because to the left, we see very little active supply left in this market. Check out the very obvious supply consumption wicks that form our upper limit trendline: 18149/18161/18167.

Conversely, should the DOW sell off today and take out the aforementioned 4hr swap area, intraday confirmed shorts may be possible if price retests this zone as supply – first take-profit target would be the 4hr demand area at 17898-17949.

US

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly view: Overall, the weekly trend on Gold is still firmly pointing south in our opinion. Current trading action shows price is nibbling at the underside of weekly supply seen at 1223.1-1202.6. A break above this area could suggest further upside towards the weekly descending trendline extended from the high 1488.0.

Daily view: Yesterday’s candle saw Gold aggressively increase in value. The liquidity for this move very likely came from the sell stops taken below the daily demand area at 1178.3-1185.8 on Friday. Assuming that the buyers can continue with this tempo today, its likely prices will challenge the 1216.0 daily swap level.

4hr view: The recent advance took out several 4hr technical barriers – little selling interest was seen in this market until price broke above the 1204.7 number marked in red.

1204.7 is an extremely important level since this is, as far as we can see, the last level of fresh supply until the 1214 (red arrow) area above, which, if you look back to the daily chart, you’ll see is located a little below the aforementioned daily swap level. Check out the price action to the left above 1204.7 in the green arc pattern; there’s very clear supply consumption wicks seen at 1209.0/1210.6/1212.2 indicating there’s potential room to move north. 

With 1204.7 – the last active supply base potentially consumed now, our team is going to be closely watching the 4hr swap area seen at 1197.9-1193.8 for lower timeframe buying confirmation today. If an entry signal is spotted, we plan to take partial profits at 1204.7 just in case there is any residual supply left over, and finally take off the remaining portion of our position off the table around the 1214 area. The reason for requiring lower timeframe confirmation at this 4hr swap area is simply because price is trading around weekly supply (see above); therefore heavy selling could come into the market at any time.

XAU

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1197.9-1193.8 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1192.8).              
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).