EUR/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: The weekly timeframe shows the Euro hovering just above a major weekly demand area sitting at 1.0333-1.0502. In the event that price breaks below this beauty, the year-long downtrend would likely continue at least until 1.0156, a major weekly swap level.

Daily timeframe perspective: From this angle, we can see that the buyers and sellers are currently wrestling for position around the top-side of a daily demand area seen at 1.0461-1.0565, which, if you look back to the weekly chart and zoom down to the daily scale, you’ll notice that this area of demand was actually a reaction to the major weekly demand zone just mentioned above.

4hr timeframe perspective: The 1.0583 open saw the Euro attempt to trade higher, but found too much downward pressure around the 1.0600 handle. This eventually caused price to aggressively spike below 4hr demand at 1.0550-1.0573 (located within the aforementioned daily demand area), which saw price once again attack 1.0600. Although the Euro is currently trading within and around higher-timeframe demand at the moment, it’s very difficult for us to be positive considering that weakness is being seen at 1.0600 and the overall downtrend on this pair is still going very strong.

With all of the above taken into consideration, no buy trades will be initiated until either a convincing push is seen above 1.0600, or price hits the 4hr demand area seen below at 1.0461-1.0510 (waiting for lower timeframe confirmation here is highly recommended), which happens to be located deep within the aforementioned daily demand area.  With regards to selling on the other hand, our team has no interest whatsoever shorting into higher-timeframe demand from 1.0600. That said though, do keep an eye on the fresh 4hr supply area above it at 1.0682-1.0663, this would be a place we’d be keen to take a confirmed short trade from, even if only for a quick bounce. Nonetheless, for that to happen, a break of 1.0600 needs to be seen first and foremost, so let’s cross that bridge when it comes to it.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1.0461-1.0510 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0455).
  • Sell orders: 1.0682-1.0663 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0710).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: A 280-pip move south was seen last week from just below a recently broken weekly Quasimodo support (now resistance) line coming in at 1.5007. This has, as far as we can see, consumed most of the major buyers around the low 1.4634, and potentially cleared the pathway south down to at least the weekly demand area seen at 1.4225-1.4482. All of this, coupled with the freakishly steep downtrend this pair is in at the moment, further downside could be in store.

Daily timeframe perspective: Following Friday’s close below daily demand coming in at 1.4643-1.4823; buyers came into the market yesterday. However, with the runway south now likely clear down to at least daily demand at 1.4343-1.4465 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area), and with what we just saw on the weekly scale, the recent buying does not give us much confidence to begin looking for longs. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to say…

4hr timeframe perspective: Cable opened at 1.4619 and dipped below the 1.4600 handle, which likely triggered a ton of sell stops from traders looking to fade there. Following this, price strongly rallied north and forced any breakout sellers to also cover their positions. The momentum from here pushed price up to within a stone’s throw away from a small 4hr decision-point supply area at 1.4723-1.4704, which not only coincides nicely with the round-number 1.4700, but is also the position where we believe pro money made the decision to push below daily demand at 1.4643-1.4823 on Friday – so all in all, a pretty significant area.

With the higher-timeframe structure suggesting shorts at the moment, and the 1.4600 level likely cleared of demand now, our attention will mostly be driven to selling this 4hr decision-point supply area today. To deal with any possible fakeout above this area to 1.4751, however, corresponding lower timeframe confirmation will be needed before we commit capital to this idea.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders: 

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.4723-1.4704 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.4728).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: Over the past two and a half months, the buyers and sellers have been seen battling for position around the top-side of a weekly demand area coming in at 0.7449-0.7678, which, as you can see, also boasts long-term trendline convergence from the low 0.4775. However, with the downtrend the Aussie is in at the moment, and the somewhat indifference being shown by the buyers here, the outlook for the AUD/USD pair is not exactly positive.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily timeframe shows that the market sold off yesterday, which as a result saw prices forced back down to daily demand at 0.7449-0.7598 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr timeframe perspective: From the open (0.7664), the buyers really had no chance. The pair aggressively sold off, taking out several technical barriers along the way until reaching the mid-level region 0.7550. This number, as you can see, was clearly enough to support a counterattack back up to just below the round number 0.7600.

Taking all of the above into account, what are we left with on the 4hr timeframe? Well, for us to even consider buying this market, a close above 0.7600 will be needed. A cut through this number would essentially be our signal to begin watching for price to retest this level as support. Nonetheless, even though price is in overall demand at the moment, buying this market here would effectively place you against the overall trend, so be careful.

With regards to selling, ideally we’d like to see a powerful push below 0.7550 before we commit to anything long-term. However, with price currently hovering just below potential resistance at 0.7600, we plan to keep an eye on how the lower timeframe price action develops around this area, should a confirmed sell signal be seen, we’ll consider shorting here for an intraday bounce down to 0.7550.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.7600 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly timeframe perspective: At the time of writing, the recent momentum seen from the small weekly decision-point demand area at 118.22-119.40 has begun to slacken. However, with the incredibly strong uptrend this pair is experiencing at the moment, and our team is still confident that as long as the buyers can hold out above this weekly area, it’s likely we’ll see prices challenge the weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.18 sometime soon.

Daily timeframe perspective: The reason (technical) for the somewhat slackening on the weekly timeframe can be found on the daily timeframe. Resistive pressure is being seen from a minor daily supply area seen at 121.18-120.08.  Therefore, the buyers will need to conquer this area before even thinking of invading the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level. Let’s take a look to see what the 4hr timeframe offers…

4hr timeframe perspective: The open (120.28) saw the USD/JPY rally from 4hr demand coming in at 119.84-120.05. This move consequently forced the market to aggressively test the 120.60 barrier (located within the aforementioned daily supply area), which, as you can see, was clearly enough to support a counterattack faking prices below the 4hr demand area into another 4hr demand just below it at 119.63-119.86.

With the weekly chart showing price trading just above demand, and the daily chart showing price in supply, this does not leave us with much direction to trade the 4hr chart. With that in mind, let’s take a look…

Buying from 4hr demand at 119.63-119.86 could be a possibility with lower timeframe confirmation as long as your targets are kept small. For us personally, we’d be looking to trail this one up to 120.60 and calling it a day. Remember, with little direction being seen on the higher timeframes, it’s difficult to judge potential targets, so keep them close!

With prices currently trading around weekly demand (see above) at the moment, and a cluster of 4hr demand areas (the area below the current comes in at 119.42-119.56) seen below, we have very little interest in selling this pair today.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: 119.63-119.86 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: 119.60).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).

                                            

USD/CAD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: Although the view from the weekly timeframe shows the USD/CAD in a firm uptrend at the moment, the last three months or so has seen price struggling to get above the weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 1.2765.

Daily timeframe perspective: From the daily picture, we can clearly see that this pair has chiseled out a consolidation zone between the daily demand area at 1.2350-1.2468, and a daily supply area seen at 1.2833-1.2742 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level).

4hr timeframe perspective: Although the USD/CAD pair moved around 80 or so pips during the course of yesterday’s sessions, our outlook remains unchanged…

The spike above 4hr supply at 1.2654-1.2614 has very likely flushed out a ton of sellers from the market – thus potentially opening the gates for a move up to the 4hr Quasimodo resistance level seen marked in green at 1.2692.  With this, we have possible direction in line with the current weekly trend, now we need a place to buy from. The only area that jumps out to us is 4hr demand at 1.2507-1.2542. However, we have absolutely no interest in placing a pending buy order at this zone because, for one, a fakeout below the area may be seen to 1.2500, and secondly, let’s not forget that resistive pressure is currently being seen on the weekly timeframe (see above). Therefore, we’d highly recommend waiting for the lower timeframes to confirm this area’s strength before committing your hard-earned capital. If price reaches this area and a buy signal is seen, the ultimate target for this trade is 1.2692 though we may have targets before this depending on how price approaches the 4hr demand zone.

In the event that price breaks below this area of 4hr demand (and the round number 1.2500), we’ll then begin watching for price to retest this number as resistance, and look to trade short with lower timeframe confirmation down to the 4hr Quasimodo support level at 1.2428 (located within the aforementioned daily demand area).

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1.2507-1.2542 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.2496).                                                       
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly timeframe perspective: The USD/CHF pair ended last week on a positive note as prices surged from a weekly swap level coming in at 0.9525. In the event that the buyers can maintain a strong position above this barrier, it’s likely that we’ll see a follow-through move north either up to parity, or failing that – the weekly supply seen just above it at 1.0239-1.0131.

Daily timeframe perspective: From this angle, we can see that price firmly closed above daily supply at 0.9755-0.9662 last week. On the condition that the buyers can hold out above this area of supply-turned demand, further buying could potentially be seen up to a daily supply area at 1.0090-1.0008 (located just a little above parity).

4hr timeframe perspective: The open (0.9804) saw prices surge north, taking out Friday’s high 0.9835 and coming within touching distance of the 4hr supply area seen at 0.9870-0.9903. From this point, an aggressive sell off down to a small 4hr demand area at 0.9750-0.9770 was seen. For those who read our previous report, you may recall us mentioning that we placed a pending buy order just above this zone at 0.9773 (50% of our usual position), which, as you can see, has now been filled. The remaining 50% will only be utilized when, or indeed if we see corresponding lower timeframe confirmation. The reason behind setting this order here is simply because both the weekly and daily timeframes have relatively positive outlooks (see above) at the moment, and, at the time of placing our pending order, there was a relatively clear run up to 4hr supply at 0.9870-0.9903. In the event a move north does take place from here, we intend to watch how price action behaves at the round number 0.9800 and at yesterday’s high 0.9861, which is located just below the 4hr supply area mentioned above at 0.9870-0.9903.

Should this trade fail and a move below 0.9750-0.9770 is seen, we’ll then shift our attention to watching for price to retest this area as supply for a potential intraday move down to 0.9700.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 0.9773 [50% of the usual position – Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.9744).               
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW Jones 30 (US 30):

Weekly timeframe perspective: From the weekly timeframe, we can see that the DOW ended last week closing around the underside of a weekly resistance level coming in at 18098. This minor barrier has been holding the market lower now for around three months! This is quite a feat considering how incredibly strong the uptrend has been over the past six years!  

Daily timeframe perspective: From this angle, we can see that price has rebounded from the daily supply area coming in at 18207-18101, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice that this beauty is hanging just above the aforementioned weekly resistance level.

4hr timeframe perspective: The open (18051) saw the market rebound from a small 4hr decision-point supply area coming in at 18085-18054. This move was short-lived though as supportive pressure came in around the 18000 region, causing prices to rally up to the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 18098. From here, prices aggressively sold off down to a 4hr decision-point demand area at 17941-17984, where the buyers and sellers are currently crossing swords. Given that price has made contact with the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level now, and taking into account where price is located on the higher-timeframe picture at present (see above), buying from this 4hr area is not something our team would be comfortable taking part in, no matter how strong the weekly trend looks!

A close below this current 4hr demand area today, however, will effectively be our cue so to speak to begin watching for price to retest this area as supply for a potential intraday short trade down to the 4hr supportive structure 17817-17873.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).               
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly timeframe perspective: From the weekly timeframe, we can see that the overall trend is still firmly pointing south. In spite of this, last week’s action saw price break above a small weekly decision-point supply area at 1223.1-1202.6. At this point, we’re unsure if this is this a continuation spike (essentially meaning a move to consume orders to continue higher), or a fakeout. Let’s take a look to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this…

Daily timeframe perspective: From the daily timeframe, we can see that last week’s trading also saw price push above a daily supply area at 1223.1-1213.0 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly decision-point supply area). The only difference that we can see between the weekly and daily charts are the fact that price has broken below a daily decision-point demand level coming in at 1194.8, thus potentially confirming lower prices are going to be seen down to at least 1182.0, a major daily swap level.

4hr timeframe perspective: The open 1207.7 saw the sellers take immediate control, pushing price down to a 4hr trendline support extended from the low 1142.5.  Trading long from this trendline support is not something our team will be participating in for the following reasons:

  1. Other than the trendline, there’s very little structure stopping price from faking lower to the 4hr decision-point demand area at 1191.3-1194.1.
  2. The daily timeframe suggests little support is left in the market until we reach 1182.0 region, which, on the 4hr timeframe is encapsulated by a 4hr demand area seen at 1180.7-1187.3.

With regards to selling, our team also has very little interest in shorting this market at present. Why? Well, let’s take a look…Selling the break of the current trendline would only give us a profit potential of a few pips down to the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area – not worth the risk in our opinion. Likewise, a break of this 4hr decision-point demand area would only permit a small short trade down to the 4hr demand area mentioned above at 1180.7-1187.3. Again, not something we believe is worth the risk considering a major daily swap level is lurking within at 1182.0.

With everything taken into consideration, we feel standing on the sidelines here may be the best to take. 

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).               
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).