EUR/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From this angle, the upward momentum from weekly demand at 1.0333-1.0502 seems to be crumbling, as weekly rejection wicks are being seen forty or so pips from below a major weekly swap (resistance) level at 1.1096, which could encourage further downside in the market. Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes…

Daily timeframe perspective: Contrary to the weekly chart, the daily outlook remains relatively positive. Price is currently teasing a daily swap (support) level coming in at 1.0825. Provided that the buyers can register some meaning here this week, we feel there’s a good chance that price will likely attack the aforementioned major weekly swap (resistance) level.

4hr timeframe perspective: The 4hr timeframe shows that the market opened at 1.0884, and saw a decline in value down to 4hr demand at 1.0766-1.0826 (located just below the aforementioned daily swap level). For those who read our reports regularly, you may recall that we already have a long position in the market from 1.0834 – partial profits have already been taken at the 1.0900 handle. Our stop loss remains below the 4hr zone at 1.0759 for the simple reason that we expected price to retest our 4hr demand area…

Given that price has yet to hit the weekly swap (resistance) level, and that the buyers and sellers are currently seen pulling for position around a daily swap (support) level (see above) at the moment, we feel there may be room for the Euro to appreciate. The move above 1.0900 seen on Friday has very likely consumed most of the sellers in this region, and potentially cleared the path north up to a rather weak-looking 4hr sell zone coming in at 1.1050-1.1011, which, as we’re sure you can already see, is located just below the aforementioned weekly swap (resistance) level. Therefore, should  active buyers come in to the market today within the current 4hr demand area, we may consider adding (with lower timeframe confirmation) to our current live position, and attempt to ride this train all the way up to the aforementioned 4hr sell zone, and potentially, the weekly swap (resistance) level just above, given enough time.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1.0834 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0759) 1.0766-1.0826 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0759).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: Last week’s trading action shows price spent much of its time lingering below a recently broken weekly Quasimodo support (now resistance) level at 1.5007. On the condition that the sellers maintain a strong position below this level, further downside from here could see price eventually drop as far as the major weekly demand area coming in at 1.4225-1.4482.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily timeframe on the other hand, shows that in order for further selling to be seen on the weekly timeframe, the sellers must take out a daily demand area positioned at 1.4643-1.4823.

4hr timeframe perspective: From the pits of the 4hr timeframe, we can see that the market opened at 1.4884, and sold off. This move consequently saw price break below 1.4800, and hit a 4hr demand area at 1.4721-1.4767 (located within the aforementioned daily demand area), which, as you can see, was clearly enough to support a countermove back above 1.4800 (currently being retested as support).

All things considered, 1.4800 is (in our opinion) an attractive level to hunt for intraday longs, as the path north appears relatively clear  up to at least 1.4866, and potentially the small 4hr supply area above at 1.4919-1.4896. The reason we’re only looking for short-term moves from here when 1.4800 is planted neatly in the middle of the aforementioned daily demand area, is simply because price is trading from a weekly Quasimodo resistance level (see above) at the moment

For anyone considering trading 1.4800 today, we would highly recommend waiting for some sort of confirmation signal from the lower timeframes before doing so, since psychological numbers are prone to fakeouts.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders: 

  • Buy orders: 1.4800 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: For the past two months, the buyers and sellers have been seen pulling for position around the upper limit of a long-term weekly demand area seen at 0.7449-0.7678. If you take a look back to early 2001, you’ll also notice that this weekly area boasts strong trendline support from the low 0.4775.

Daily timeframe perspective: The rebound seen from the daily supply area coming in at 0.8024-0.7883 extended lower yesterday, forcing price to hover fifty or so pips above a daily demand area seen at 0.7449-0.7598 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr timeframe perspective: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe shows that ever since the market opened at 0.7732, the sellers literally took full control! Price cleanly took out the round number 0.7700, and plunged into a 4hr demand area seen at 0.7610-0.7641, which, as you can probably see, converges perfectly with a 4hr trendline extended from the low 0.7559.

Taking all of the above into account, our team’s main focus for today will be looking for confirmed longs around the aforementioned 4hr demand area. Assuming a buy signal is seen, the first take-profit target will be around the 0.7700 number. That being said though, potential resistance may come into the market before reaching here from around the recently consumed 4hr demand seen marked with a green arrow at 0.7661-0.7695, hence the need for confirmation here!

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: 0.7610-0.7641 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.7606).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From the weekly timeframe, we can clearly see that active buyers have entered the market from within a small weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40.

Daily timeframe perspective: The rebound seen from the minor daily support level at 118.32 on Thursday last week, extended higher yesterday. As long as the buyers can continue with this tempo, we see very little reason why price will not hit the daily supply area coming in at 122.01-121.10.

4hr timeframe perspective: The 4hr timeframe shows that ever since the market opened at 119.19, the buyers have been in overall control pushing the market nearly 100 pips north! Consequent to this, price firmly closed above and retested the round number 120.00. For those who read our last report, you may recall that we mentioned should price close above this number, we’ll be heavy buyers from that point on.

So, with the above in mind, we’re going to primarily be spending much of today scouring the lower timeframes for confirmed long entries around the 120.00 number. In the event that a signal is spotted, our first take-profit target will be 120.60, the second, a little higher up at 121.00.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: 120.00 [tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From this angle, the USD/CAD pair has seen very little change over the past two months. Price still remains trading/consolidating around the underside of a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 1.2765. A break above this level would likely clear the path for further buying towards another weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 1.3014.

Daily timeframe perspective: Friday’s rally seen from the daily demand area at 1.2405-1.2517 clearly inspired the buyers yesterday, as the USD/CAD appreciated in value. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe makes of this…

4hr timeframe perspective: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe shows that the market opened at an even 1.2600, and rocketed north towards a 4hr supply area seen at 1.2721-1.2673. For those who read our previous report on the Loonie, you may recall us mentioning to watch for lower timeframe buying confirmation around 1.2600. We do hope some of our readers took advantage of the 100-pip move that took off from here!

Given that the weekly chart is showing price lingering around 1.2765, and further buying being seen on the daily chart, where does this leave us on the 4hr timeframe? Well, with price currently loitering within 4hr supply (see above) at the moment, do we believe a move south will be seen from here? Of course, it is possible, but not somewhere we’d be comfortable shorting at for two reasons:

  1. Strong upside seen on the daily chart from daily demand at 1.2405-1.2517.
  2. The weekly Quasimodo resistance level will likely be the extreme magnet for price this week; hence a move higher may transpire.

With all of the above taken into account, our team has come to a general consensus that stepping aside here may be the best path to take, at least until we see more favorable price action present itself.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).                                                      
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly timeframe perspective: We can see that buyers and sellers are currently (retesting) battling for position around the underside of the recently broken weekly swap level at 0.9663. Should price display signs of strength here, this may encourage active sellers into the market and force the Swissy down to a strong-looking weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 0.9170-0.9343.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily chart on the other hand, shows that in order for further downside to be seen on the weekly chart, the sellers must take out a daily decision-point demand area at 0.9449-0.9534.

4hr timeframe perspective: The USD/CHF pair, as you can see, opened at 0.9612, beautifully retested the 0.9600 handle, and then rallied up to the 4hr supply area at 0.9693-0.9666.

Given that the weekly timeframe shows price currently teasing the underside of a weekly swap (potential resistance) level (see above) at the moment, we may see an intraday or even a medium-term move from the aforementioned 4hr supply area today. In the event price closes above this area, however, the path will then likely be clear for buying up to a very fresh 4hr supply area at 0.9811-0.9767.

Taking all of the above into account, our team’s main focus today will be primarily looking for confirmed shorting opportunities around the 4hr supply area at 0.9693-0.9666. Provided that we find an entry here, two targets have been selected. The first comes in at 0.9600, the second, is a 4hr demand area at 0.9489-0.9556. The reason why this is our final take-profit target is simply because we would at that point be nearing the daily decision-point demand area at 0.9449-0.9534, which, if you remember (see above), is a key obstacle to a move south on the weekly timeframe.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).               
  • Sell orders: 0.9693-0.9666 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.9707).

 

DOW 30:              

Weekly timeframe perspective:  The weekly picture shows that even though the DOW is still in a VERY strong uptrend, resistive pressure is currently being seen from a minor weekly resistance level coming in at 18098.

Daily timeframe perspective: The fakeout below the daily decision-point demand area at 17561-17655 clearly got the attention of some well-funded traders yesterday. Price rallied a very cool 229 points from open to close (figure includes per and aftermarket hours). This move has likely (for us anyway) confirmed that the daily timeframe is now range bound between the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area, and a small daily supply area coming in at 18279-18192. Could this be pro money accumulating a long-term position here?

4hr timeframe perspective: From the pits of the 4hr timeframe, we can see that the market opened at 17714, and spring boarded north up to a very fresh 4hr supply area at 18045-17981.

Now, considering that the weekly timeframe, although in an incredibly strong uptrend, is seeing downward pressure from 18098 at the moment, we could potentially see a move from the current 4hr supply area down to an almost hidden 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 17749-17790 (positioned above the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area). Conversely, should the DOW close above this 4hr supply area today. The path north will then likely be clear up to 18148, seen just below the aforementioned daily supply area.

Given the points made above, today’s spotlight will be firmly focused on the aforementioned 4hr supply area. Provided that we see that lower timeframes are in unison with the 4hr timeframe, we’ll look to short down to the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area. Be that as it may, if price closes above the current 4hr supply area, we’ll then shift our attention to begin watching for the market to retest this area as demand.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).               
  • Sell orders: 18045-17981 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly timeframe perspective:  The situation on the weekly chart shows that price was driven deep into a small weekly decision-point supply area coming in at 1223.1-1202.6 last week. This move has clearly attracted sellers into the market.

Daily timeframe perspective: Yesterday’s daily session saw the Gold market sell off, which as a result, forced price to collide with a major daily swap (support) level at 1182.00.

4hr timeframe perspective: From the open at 1198.5, as already mentioned above, price sold off down to the aforementioned daily (swap) support level, leaving very little room for any sort of buying action.

Now, given that the weekly timeframe is firmly trading from weekly supply at the moment, and the daily timeframe shows price dancing with daily support (see above), where does this leave us on the 4hr chart? Well, entering long from daily support (with lower timeframe confirmation) could be possible if only for a bounce, since you don’t really want to try and pick a long-term fight with weekly supply.

With regards to selling this metal, our team has come to a general consensus that shorts will only be permissible upon seeing a FIRM close below this daily support.

A close lower would likely do two things for us:

  1. Potentially confirm selling strength from the weekly supply area.
  2. The path south would then very likely be clear for selling down to the 4hr decision-point demand area at 1169.2-1175.1.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1182.00 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).               
  • Sell orders: Flat [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).