EURUSD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: Last week saw the Euro form a bullish engulfing candle a few pips from above the long-term weekly swap (support) level coming in at 1.0411. In the event that this attracts further buyers into the market, price will very likely be drawn to the weekly swap (resistance) level seen at 1.1109.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily timeframe shows that price stuck its head a few pips above last week’s high (1.1036) yesterday, which, as you can probably see clearly triggered active selling. Should the market continue to trade south, we will very likely see price collide with the recently-broken daily swap level at 1.0825.

4hr timeframe perspective: From the pits of the 4hr timeframe, we can see that the recent descent on the Euro begun deep from within 4hr supply coming in at 1.1050-1.1011, which has consequently seen price wipe out 1.1000, and is, at the time of writing, trying ever so hard to close below 1.0900.

Given that the weekly chart shows price has yet to hit the weekly swap (resistance) level at 1.1109, and that the market seems to be driving towards a daily swap (support) level at 1.0825 at the moment, where does this leave us on the 4hr timeframe today? Well, Should price manage to close below 1.0900, we see the following:

  • An opportunity to trade any retest seen at 1.0900. Lower timeframe confirmation is worth waiting for here since psychological levels are, from our experience, prone to deep fakeouts. Assuming an entry is found, we plan to have one target for this trade, and that is the 4hr demand area seen at 1.0766-1.0826, which has really caught our attention over the past day or two.
  • Entering long around the aforementioned 4hr demand area. Our team has placed a pending buy order just above this zone at 1.0834, since it’s completely fresh – untouched, converges nicely with a 4hr trendline extended from the low 1.0461, and is located just below the aforementioned daily swap level. What more could anyone ask for!

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1.0834 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0759).
  • Sell orders: 1.0900 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: The current situation on the weekly chart shows price lingering just below a weekly Quasimodo resistance (prior support) level seen at 1.5007. Further downside from here could see price drop as far as the major weekly demand area coming in at 1.4225-1.4482.

Daily timeframe perspective: From the daily timeframe, we can see that sterling has moved very little this week. Price still remains capped between a daily decision-point supply area seen at 1.5136-1.5020 (located just above the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo level), and a daily demand area coming in at 1.4686-1.4805.

4hr timeframe perspective: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers still seem to be battling for position between 1.4969/1.4845. That said, both of these limits were breached yesterday, and each time price missed the round numbers surrounding this consolidation by only a few pips (1.5000/1.4800).

As we mentioned in the previous report, Buying and selling within this range is valid in our opinion (tentative buys seen at 1.4853, and sells at 1.4964); as long as one waits for some sort of confirmation signal from the lower timeframes, since fakeouts (as we’ve just witnessed) are very common in environments such as this. However, do bear in mind that price is currently trading just below a weekly Quasimodo resistance level (see above), so extra caution should be taken when considering longs within this space.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders: 

  • Buy orders: 1.4853 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: 1.4964 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: Following last week’s rebound from weekly demand at 0.7449-0.7678, we can see that price, so far this week, has advanced to a fresh high of 0.7937, consequently piercing the weekly high formed on the 23/02/15 at 0.7911.

Daily timeframe perspective: Following the rebound from the underside of the daily opening line at 0.7935 seen on the 28/01/15 (converges quite nicely with a down trendline extended from the high 0.8910); price has been forced to test the recently broken daily supply area coming in at 0.7859-0.7789. Assuming that the buyers can hold out here today, we might, just might, see a move higher.

4hr timeframe perspective: Looking at the 4hr timeframe, price is currently capped between a 4hr demand area at 0.7762-0.7821 (sitting just within the recently broken daily supply area at 0.7859-0.7789), and a small 4hr supply area coming in at 0.7903-0.7876. Our team has no interest in trading this temporary 4hr range since with lower timeframe confirmation, the profit potential limit-to-limit would only be around 35-40 pips. This is fine for intraday swings, but we’re looking for a little more medium term here…

A break above this 4hr consolidation does not exactly inspire buying! The road ahead is filled with troublesome resistances, ranging from last week’s high at 0.7911, to Tuesday’s high seen at 0.7937.One could, if they so wished, look to fade these beauties, but with price trading around demand on both the weekly and daily timeframes at the moment (see above), we intend to give it a miss.

A break below on the other hand is a different story entirely! This 4hr demand area mentioned above at 0.7762-0.7821 is, as far as we can see, the only thing supporting this market at the moment. Should a break below this barrier be seen, we could very well witness the Aussie drop down to at least 0.7738, and potentially 0.7700 given enough time, which, if you remember is only 20 or so pips above the aforementioned weekly demand area. Buying at either 0.7738 or 0.7700 are valid buy trades from where we’re standing as long as one waits for that all-important confirmation from the lower timeframes.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: 0.7738 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 0.7700 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From the weekly timeframe, we can see that price has been driven deep into a minor weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40. If the buyers manage to maintain their position within this zone, we may see price attack the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 122.18.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily timeframe shows that price spiked below a small daily demand area at 118.61-119.05 yesterday, which as a result, saw price hit and rebound from a minor daily support level seen at 118.32 (located deep within the aforementioned minor weekly decision-point demand area).

4hr timeframe perspective: The kickback from the aforementioned minor daily support level has, as you can probably see, forced price to test a very clean-looking 4hr supply area at 119.64-119.38. Clean it may be, and selling from here could very work out nicely, but, given that both the weekly and daily timeframes are trading from some sort of support (see above) at the moment, we’re going to sit this one out, and see if the buyers can’t break this area of supply.

With this in mind, a clean break above this area may open the doors to intraday buying opportunities up to at least 120.00. Should price manage to get above this handle, we’ll be heavy buyers from that point on up to 120.60/121.00.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From last week’s action, we can see that the USD/CAD pair formed a nice-looking bearish engulfing candle around the underside of a weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.2765. Should further selling be seen from this point, we may see price attack the weekly swap level coming in at 1.2260.

Daily timeframe perspective: The buyers and sellers still remain battling for position within a daily demand area at 1.2405-1.2517, which, in our opinion, remains a key obstacle to a move towards the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1.2260.

4hr timeframe perspective: Price broke down in yesterday’s sessions forcing the market to drive deep into a 4hr demand area seen at 1.2405-1.2441 (located deep within the aforementioned daily demand zone). This area, as you can see, was clearly enough to support a counterattack back up to just below the 1.2500 mark.

Taking into consideration that the weekly timeframe is currently bearish, and the daily chart is showing price loitering within daily demand (see above) at the moment, where do we stand on the 4hr timeframe? Well, buying right now is certainly not something we would like to be involved in. Not only do we have round-number resistance looming just above at 1.2500, we’d also have to contend with potential selling opposition from the weekly timeframe as well.

With regards to selling this pair, our team still stands by what they said a few days back. A close below current 4hr demand would be needed before any selling took place, as this would, in our opinion, both consume the aforementioned daily demand area, and at the same time, likely give some confirmation that strength exists around the weekly Quasimodo resistance level mentioned above at 1.2765.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).                                                       
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly timeframe perspective: At this point in time, we can see that price has clearly penetrated a weekly swap (support) level coming in at 0.9663. From this move, the road south has very likely been cleared all the way down to the weekly swap (support) level seen at 0.9382. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this…

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily timeframe on the other hand, shows that price recently rebounded from a strong-looking daily decision-point demand area at 0.9449-0.9534, and is now facing potential downward pressure from the recently broken weekly swap level (now resistance on this timeframe) mentioned above at 0.9663.

4hr timeframe perspective: Yesterday’s sessions saw this Swiss pair close below the 0.9541 minor 4hr swap level, forcing price to test a 4hr demand area coming seen at 0.9449-0.9500 (located deep within the aforementioned daily demand area). It was here that heavy buyers entered the market causing price to close above the 0.9600 handle.

In view of the higher-timeframe structure, the focal point for today will be primarily looking to sell at a small 4hr supply area coming in at 0.9693-0.9666.  The reasons for why is most probably best explained in bullet-point form:

  • Weekly swap (support) level at 0.9663 has been penetrated.
  • The daily timeframe is showing slight resistive pressure from this weekly level as it’s now being retested as resistance.
  • The 4hr supply area is extremely fresh with fantastic momentum south.

Even though we believe a first-time reaction will be seen here, we’re still going to be waiting for lower timeframe selling confirmation around this area, simply because this recent weekly move (see weekly timeframe above) could just as well be a fakeout below the aforementioned weekly swap (support) level, and pro money could be using the daily decision-point demand area mentioned above (see daily timeframe perspective) to help facilitate this. Also, waiting for confirmation here will avoid being stopped out should price fake north to the 0.9700 handle seen just above the zone.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).               
  • Sell orders: 0.9693-0.9666 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.9705).

 

DOW 30:                

Weekly timeframe perspective: Even though the overall up trend remains very strong in our opinion, resistive pressure is currently being seen from a minor weekly resistance level at 18098.

Daily timeframe perspective: Yesterday’s price action formed a somewhat average-looking bullish pin-bar candle that clearly spiked, or should we say ‘faked’, below a daily decision-point demand area at 17561-17655, which, as you can probably see, converges beautifully with a daily trendline extended from the low 15849.

4hr timeframe perspective: From the 4hr timeframe, we can see that the push below the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area appears to have been supported by a small ‘kink’ 4hr demand area at 17514-17565, as price has been forced north from here up to a 4hr swap area coming in at 17690-17774.

Given that the weekly timeframe, although still in a strong uptrend, is seeing resistive pressure, and with the daily chart currently showing price trading from daily demand (see above) at the moment, our main focus for today will be WATCHING the aforementioned 4hr swap area. If this area is consumed, the path north will then likely be clear for further buying up to at least 17871, and potentially the 4hr decision-point supply area at 18045-17981 given enough time. In addition to this, a break higher will also likely confirm buying strength from the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area, and at the same time, suggest weakness from the minor weekly resistance level mentioned above at 18098.

Conversely, should selling be seen around this 4hr swap area today, we may see price attack the small ‘kink’ 4hr demand once again, and possibly break lower, which, as we’re sure you can guess by now, would likely indicate selling strength from the aforementioned minor weekly resistance level.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).             
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly timeframe perspective:  Following the bullish engulfing candle that formed last week a few pips above from the weekly decision-point demand level at 1136.3, further buying has been seen. This move has consequently forced price to collide with a weekly decision-point supply area coming in at 1223.1-1202.6.

Daily timeframe perspective: Following the retest of 1188.3 on Wednesday, Gold rocketed north and literally hit the minor daily Quasimodo resistance line at 1219.9 to-the-pip yesterday, which, from where we’re standing, is beautifully surrounded by a daily supply area seen at 1223.1-1213.0 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly decision-point supply area).

4hr timeframe perspective: The latest coming from the 4hr pit shows price reacted beautifully to, what we like to call, a 4hr ‘sell zone’ at 1223.1-1219.0 (located deep within the aforementioned daily supply area), which, as you can see, forced price southbound to hang just above a 4hr decision-point demand area at 1194.6-1199.5. Buying from this 4hr area may be ok for a short-term intraday bounce trade (lower timeframe confirmation highly recommended), but nothing more in our opinion, since let’s not forget that price is currently located in some real heavy-weight supply on the higher scale (see above) at the moment. The only other place that we can see that would be worth considering for buys is around 1188.3 (clear support base on the daily timeframe), which was the level initially used as support to springboard price north up to higher-timeframe supply.

Conversely, with regards to selling here, we do not see any logical areas to enter short from right now. If price rallies back up to the aforementioned 4hr sell zone, however, we’d then confidently put buys on the back burner and focus our attention on sells.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1194.6-1199.5 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1194.1) 1188.3 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).               
  • Sell orders: 1223.1-1219.0 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1223.9).