Weekly timeframe perspective: Last week saw the Euro form a bullish engulfing candle a few pips from above the long-term weekly swap (support) level coming in at 1.0411. In the event that this attracts further buyers into the market (which at the moment it looks as though it is), price will very likely be drawn to the weekly swap (resistance) level seen at 1.1109.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily timeframe shows that last week’s high 1.1036 has still yet to see a break. Nevertheless, yesterday’s candle, as we’re sure you can already see, was far more ‘positive looking’ than the prior day’s candle, even though it failed to make a higher high. In order for price to reach the aforementioned weekly swap resistance level, a CLEAN break above 1.1036 is required.

4hr timeframe perspective: From this angle, the Euro is presently witnessing consolidative action between the 4hr supply area coming in at 1.1050-1.1011 (we’re going to treat this 4hr supply and the round number 1.1000 as one area here) and the 1.0900 level. Taking all of the above into consideration, here is how we see our favorite pair at the moment. Traders could, if they so wished, buy and sell within the current 4hr range (tentative buys are seen at 1.0905, and sells at 1.1000), as we see there’s around 80 pips to be had trading limit-to limit if one waits for lower timeframe confirmation (highly recommended by the way), obviously more if not.

Assuming a breakout north is seen, buying, even with a retest, is something our team has no interest in whatsoever. The reason for why is simply because there’s a major weekly swap level looming just above in red at 1.1109. Therefore, should a break north be seen, our attention will be firmly fixed on looking for shorts around this weekly level.

A breakout south on the other hand, may provide an opportunity to short any retest down to the 4hr demand at 1.0766-1.0826, which is an area we believe a bounce will likely be seen from since it’s located around a daily swap level seen at 1.0825.


Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1.0905 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: 1.1000 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).



Weekly timeframe perspective: The current situation on the weekly chart shows price lingering just below a weekly Quasimodo resistance (prior support) level seen at 1.5007. Further downside from here could see price drop as far as the major weekly demand area coming in at 1.4225-1.4482.

Daily timeframe perspective: From here, we can see that price is currently trading between a daily decision-point supply area seen at 1.5136-1.5020, and a daily demand area coming in at 1.4686-1.4805.

4hr timeframe perspective: Looking at the 4hr timeframe, very little change has been seen since we last analyzed this pair…

As far as we can see, the GBP is still temporarily range bound between 1.4969/1.4845. Surrounding this consolidation is two very prominent psychological numbers, the first coming in at 1.5000, and the second at 1.4800. Buying and selling within this range is certainly valid in our opinion (tentative buys seen at 1.4853, and sells at 1.4964); as long as one waits for some sort of confirmation signal from the lower timeframes, since fakeouts are so very common in environments such as this.

Given that the weekly chart is showing somewhat resistive qualities at the moment (see above), and that the overall trend is still southbound, for the most part we feel a breakout below this range is more than likely going to be seen. This move would see price hit 1.4800, which could be a level to watch for intraday buys. The reason why we’re saying only ‘intraday buys’ here is simply because of what this number has against it – not only weekly resistive pressure just mentioned above, but also the 4hr demand looming just below at 1.4721-1.4767 (located within the aforementioned daily demand area), which could encourage price to a fake below this round number, so trade carefully around this level guys.


Current buy/sell orders: 

  • Buy orders: 1.4853 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 1.4800 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: 1.4964 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).



Weekly timeframe perspective: Following last week’s rebound from weekly demand at 0.7449-0.7678, we can see that price, so far this week, has advanced to a fresh high of 0.7937, consequently piercing the weekly high formed on the 23/02/15 at 0.7911. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this…

Daily timeframe perspective: From the daily chart, we can see price closed above a daily supply area at 0.7859-0.7789 on Monday, and saw selling interest come into the market a day later around the underside of a daily opening line at 0.7935 seen on the 28/01/15, which, as you can probably see, also converges quite nicely with a down trendline extended from the high 0.8910. Assuming that the buyers can hold out within the recently broken daily supply-turned demand, we might, just might, see a move higher.

4hr timeframe perspective: Since Tuesday the market has been swinging between 0.7900 and 0.7843. Current price action, as you can see, is currently loitering around the lower limits of the 0.7843 line. This line and the 4hr decision-point demand area seen below at 0.7762-0.7821 (sitting just within the recently broken daily supply area mentioned above) is, as far as we can see, the only thing supporting this market at the moment. Should a break below these barriers be seen, we could very well witness the Aussie drop down to 0.7700, which, if you remember is only 20 or so pips above the aforementioned weekly demand area.

Given that the weekly and daily timeframes are showing somewhat mixed signals at the moment, and for the best part, we see no clear trading opportunities on the 4hr chart, our team is going to remain on the sidelines until more conducive price action presents itself.


Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).



Weekly timeframe perspective: At the time of writing, price is seen teasing a minor weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40. If price can hold out above this zone, we then feel there’s a very good chance that the buyers will attack the weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.18.

Daily timeframe perspective: From this timeframe, we can see that price has once again stabbed below the small daily demand area at 119.37-119.81 (sits just above the aforementioned minor weekly decision-point demand area). We believe this has dramatically increased the chances of a move being seen down to another very small daily demand area at 118.61-119.05, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice is located relatively deep within the minor weekly decision-point demand area (see above).

4hr timeframe perspective: Recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show price did attempt to trade above 119.74 to 120.00 yesterday, and, as you can see, almost made it, falling short by only 3 or so pips before eventually selling off back down to the 4hr demand area coming in at 119.06-119.27 (located just below the daily demand area at 119.37-119.81).

Given all of the points made above, we remain a little concerned that the buyers could not muster the strength to get above 120.00, could this be a further sign of weakening longs here? We believe it could well be. With that said, we have no interest in buying this market at the aforementioned 4hr demand zone until we see a clean close above 120.00. On the other hand, should a break below the current 4hr demand be seen, this will likely attract further downside towards a 4hr demand visible at 118.67-118.94 (located within daily demand at 118.61-119.05). It would be here that we’d begin watching the lower timeframes for buying confirmation around the 118.97 mark, since this area is located not only within daily demand, but also weekly as well (see above).


Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: 118.97 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.63).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).