EUR/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: Last week saw the Euro form a bullish engulfing candle a few pips from above a long-term weekly swap level coming in at 1.0411. In the event that this attracts further buyers into the market, price will very likely be drawn to the weekly swap level seen at 1.1109.

Daily timeframe perspective: From this angle, we can see price closed above a daily swap level coming in at 1.0825. Assuming that the buyers can hold out above this barrier, we see little resistance (on this timeframe) stopping price from hitting the aforementioned weekly swap level. Let’s take a peek at what the 4hr timeframe makes of this…

4hr timeframe perspective: The 4hr timeframe shows that price was seen experimenting with the 1.0800 number  early on during yesterday’s sessions, and even closed below it at one point (no confirmation to sell was seen however), before finally rocketing north and consuming (closed above) 1.0900.

For those who read our previous report, you may recall that we mentioned…

A close above 1.0900 would likely give us the following:

  1. An early signal that the daily swap level resistance mentioned above at 1.0825 has been consumed.
  2. Likely confirming strength to the bullish engulfing pattern seen on the weekly timeframe.
  3. A clear the path up to 1.1000.
  4. Potential buying opportunities on any retest seen of 1.0900.

Therefore, in light of the above and as price has just recently closed above 1.0900, we’re going to be watching today for the mid-level number 1.0950 (the Euro really seems to love these mid numbers) to hold the market south, and with a little luck, force price to retest 1.0900 as support. It would be at this point that we’d begin closely monitoring the lower timeframes for buying confirmation. Assuming that an entry long is seen here, we’re ultimately looking to ride this one up to at least 1.1000, that said though, we may, dependent on what news is due to be released at that time, leave a little on the table for a possible run up to the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1.1109.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: 1.0900 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

GBP/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: The current situation on the weekly chart shows price lingering just below a weekly Quasimodo resistance (prior support) level seen at 1.5007. Further downside from here could see price drop as far as the major weekly demand area coming in at 1.4225-1.4482.

Daily timeframe perspective: From here, we can see that price is currently trading between a daily decision-point supply area seen at 1.5136-1.5020, and a daily demand area coming in at 1.4686-1.4805.

4hr timeframe perspective: The weekly open (1.4969) saw the GBP break down during yesterday’s trading sessions, completely ignoring the 1.4900 level in the process. However, as you can probably see, a nice bit of buying pressure came into the market around an almost invisible 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.4817-1.4842, and as a result, managed to get back above 1.4900.

Taking all of the above into consideration, our team has decided that no longs will be initiated on this pair until we see a clean close above the 1.5000 mark. Entering long at this point would place you against potential selling from not only 1.5000, but also the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level, which, you may remember, is also supported by the upper daily range barrier at 1.5136-1.5020. With that, the main focus for today will be firmly on the 1.5000 level looking for confirmed lower timeframe shorts. In the event that a short entry is seen here, we’ll look to trail this one down to at least 1.4900 (dependent on how price approaches 1.5000) before taking partial profits.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders: 

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.5000 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

AUD/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: The rebound from weekly demand at 0.7449-0.7678 seen last week is currently experiencing further upside. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes make of this…

Daily timeframe perspective: From this angle, we can see price has recently closed above a daily decision-point supply area seen at 0.7859-0.7789. As long as the buyers can hold out above this zone, and consume any selling opposition around February 26th’s high – 0.7911, the path north will then likely be clear for price to challenge a small daily decision-point supply area coming in at 0.8050-0.7994.

4hr timeframe perspective: The 4hr timeframe shows that the market opened at 0.7780, and shortly after began whipsawing around the 0.7800 number. From here on, price rocketed north, taking out an important resistance zone at 0.7843, and only seeing resistive pressure once price hit the 0.7900 region, which, as you can see, is a Quasimodo resistance level as well as a psychological number.

Shorting from 0.7900 is something we will not be participating in, since let’s not forget the market is currently trading out of major weekly demand at the moment, and has just closed above a daily decision-point supply area (see above).

In view of the higher-timeframe structure, what we’re looking for today is price to close above 0.7900, retest it as support (which is the point at where we’d begin hunting for lower timeframe confirmation), and rally up to the 4hr Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7973 (seen a few pips below the daily decision-point supply area mentioned above at 0.8050-0.7994).

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly timeframe perspective: At the time of writing, price is seen teasing a minor weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40. If price can hold out above this zone, we then feel there’s a very good chance that the buyers will attack the weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen above at 122.18.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily picture shows price is trading within a weak-looking daily demand area at 119.37-119.81. The reason we believe this area to be weak is simply because of the spike seen through the zone on the 18/03/15 at 119.28. That being the case, a close below here would likely force price to test a small daily demand area seen at 118.61-119.05, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice is located relatively deep within the aforementioned minor weekly decision-point demand area.

4hr timeframe perspective: From the 4hr angle, we can see that the market opened 15 pips lower than Friday’s close (120.00) at 119.85. This move consequently forced price south to test 119.74, where active buyers attempted to take out the 120.00 round-number resistance, which, as you can see, did not really work out too well.

At present, price has closed below 119.74 and is retesting it as resistance, which we’re sure you’ll agree with is not exactly a sign of bullish strength considering where price is located on the higher timeframes at the moment. If the sellers can hang on below this number, further downside could very well be seen to test the trendline support extended from the low 116.86, or, failing that, the 4hr demand at 119.06-119.27 (located just below the daily demand area mentioned above at 119.37-119.81).

With the above taken into account, our team has come to a general consensus that shorting 119.74 is risky, however, with price not showing much buying strength on the 4hr timeframe at the moment, and the daily demand area at 119.37-119.81 suggesting weakness, we’re going to keep an eye on the lower timeframes for any confirmed intraday short signals around this number. That said, should price meet with the aforementioned 4hr demand area today, our team will again be on red alert, scouring for lower timeframe confirmation to buy into this market for obvious reasons – check the weekly timeframe analysis.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:  

  • Buy orders: 119.06-119.27 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 119.02).
  • Sell orders: presently watching for lower timeframe confirmation around 119.74 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

USD/CAD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From last week’s action, we can see that the USD/CAD pair formed a nice-looking bearish engulfing candle around the underside of a weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.2765. Should further selling be seen from this point, we may see price attack the weekly swap level coming in at 1.2260.

Daily timeframe perspective: As per the daily timeframe, very little has changed. Price action still shows that in order for further selling to be seen on the weekly timeframe, the sellers will need to take out immediate daily demand positioned at 1.2405-1.2517.

4hr timeframe perspective: (Slightly revised our thinking from the previous report)The 4hr timeframe shows that the market opened at 1.2547, and more or less saw immediate buying pressure forcing price up to 1.2600. From 1.2600, as you can see, the pair aggressively sold off, taking out 1.2530 and finally ended with price smashing into 1.2500.

So that we’re all on the same page here, let’s just quickly recap. The weekly chart is currently bearish on all accounts, while the daily chart shows a daily demand area is obstructing further selling (see above), so where does this leave us on the 4hr timeframe? Well, buying from 1.2500 could work out, although with potential resistance (1.2530) looming just above, we would need to see this level taken out first. In the event price dropped lower, however, and met with 4hr demand at 1.2423-1.2480 (located within the aforementioned daily demand area), buying from here also has its problems. Not only would resistance at 1.2530 need to be consumed, but now the 1.2500 number would also need to be taken out as well! Unless we see a move north from here freeing price of near-term resistance, we have no interest in buying this pair.

Selling on the other hand, will not be permitted until price takes out the aforementioned 4hr demand area as this will likely suggest to us that most of the major buyers within the daily demand area mentioned above are consumed.

4hr

Current buy/sell orders:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).                                         
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).