Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.95 %, Shanghai Composite rose 1.60 %, Hang Seng gained 0.60 %, ASX declined 0.30 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1182 (-0.20 %), Silver at $16.70 (-1.10 %), WTI Oil at $46.00 (-1.20 %), Brent Oil at $54.90 (-0.55 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.929, UK 10 year yield at 1.515, German 10 year yield at 0.179

News & Data:

  • New Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment 117.4, Previous: 114.8
  • Saudi Arabia's OPEC Governor Mohammed Al-Madi: Tough To Hit $100-$120 Oil Again – Econ Times
  • Greek Liquidity To Run Out On 8 April — DW
  • PBOC Fixes Yuan At 6.1448 (previous 6.1496)

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR shorts at 193.8K vs. 181.1K shorts prior week
  • CAD shorts at 32.8K vs. 39.0K shorts prior week 
  • JPY shorts at 48.1K vs. 59.4K  shorts prior week
  • CHF long at 2.235K vs. 8.380K shorts prior week
  • AUD shorts at 28.8K vs. 76.9K shorts prior week
  • GBP shorts at 37.9K vs. 32.6K shorts prior week

Markets Update:

The US Dollar weakened against most other major currencies overnight, as the effects of the FOMC meeting last Wednesday continue to weigh on the currency. Meanwhile, the majority of Asian equity indices are up on the day, while commodities have started the new trading week slightly lower from the Friday close.

The New Zealand Dollar was the best performing currency overnight, driven by general USD weakness and heavy AUD/NZD sales. Dealers reported that leveraged funds liquidated long positions in the pair, which drove it to a fresh record low of 1.0220. There is not much support until 1.00 now and it seems likely that the pair will test that big level soon. NZD/USD reached a high of 0.7664 in Asia. Momentum funds were buyers as we broke above the 0.7610 resistance level and stops got triggered through 0.7615/20. A daily close above the 0.7610 level would be significant and suggest a move towards 0.78.

USD/JPY remains under pressure. Heavy selling interest is reported between 120.40 and 120.60, while pivotal tech support is noted at 119.20. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been rather quiet overnight, but should the USD extend losses, the next bull targets are the post-FOMC highs at 1.1050 and 1.5170 respectively.

Looking ahead, there are no data releases in the European session. In the US session, we’ll get the US Existing Home Sales data and the EZ Consumer Confidence figures. Further, ECB President Draghi and FOMC member Fischer will be speaking this afternoon.

Upcoming Events:

  • 14:00 GMT – US Existing Home Sales (1.7 %, 4.90mln)
  • 14:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 15:00 GMT – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence (-6.0)
  • 15:45 GMT – FOMC Member Fischer speaks

The Week Ahead (Key Data Releases & Events):

Tuesday, March 24th

08:00 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI (48.5)

08:00 GMT – French Services PMI (52.8)

08:30 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI (51.5)

08:30 GMT – German Services PMI (55.0)

09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI (51.5)

09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI (53.9)

09:30 GMT – UK CPI (0.3 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)

09:30 GMT – UK PPI Input (1.6 % m/m, -12.4 % y/y)

09:30 GMT – UK PPI Output (-0.1 % m/m, -1.9 % y/y)

09:30 GMT – UK House Price Index (10.2 % y/y)

12:30 GMT – US Core CPI (0.1 % m/m, 1.6 % y/y)

12:30 GMT – US CPI (0.2 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)

13:00 GMT – US House Price Index (0.5 % m/m)

13:45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI (54.6)

14:00 GMT – US Richmond Manufacturing Index (2.0)

14:00 GMT – US New Home Sales (-1.3 % m/m, 470k)

21:45 GMT – New Zealand Exports (NZ$4.08bln)

21:45 GMT – New Zealand Imports (NZ$3.70bln)

21:45 GMT – New Zealand Trade Balance (NZ$350mln m/m, -NZ$1.87bln y/y)

Wednesday, March 25th

07:00 GMT – Swiss Consumption Indicator

08:00 GMT – Swedish Consumer Confidence

09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Expectations (103.0)

09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate (107.3)

09:00 GMT – German IFO Current Assessment (112.0)

10:30 GMT – Chicago Fed President Evans speaks

12:30 GMT – US Core Durable Goods Orders (0.3 % m/m)

12:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders (0.3 % m/m)

14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, March 26th

07:00 GMT – German GfK Consumer Climate (9.8)

07:45 GMT – French GDP (0.1 % q/q)

08:30 GMT – Swedish PPI

08:30 GMT – Swedish Trade Balance

08:35 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks

09:00 GMT – Norwegian Unemployment Rate (3.7 %)

09:00 GMT – Euro Zone M3 Money Supply (4.3 % y/y)

09:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales (0.4 % m/m, 4.7 % y/y)

09:30 GMT – UK Core Retail Sales (0.4 % m/m, 4.1 % y/y)

12:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims (295k)

13:30 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

13:45 GMT – US Services PMI (57.2)

Friday, March 27th

07:45 GMT – French Consumer Confidence (93.0)

08:30 GMT – Swedish Retail Sales (0.3 % m/m)

08:45 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks

09:00 GMT – Italian Industrial New Orders

09:00 GMT – Norwegian Unemployment Change (89k)

09:00 GMT – Norwegian Unemployment Rate (3.0 %)

09:15 GMT – Bank of England MPC Member Broadbent speaks

10:00 GMT – Italian Retail Sales (0.1 % m/m)

10:30 GMT – FOMC Member Fischer speaks

12:30 GMT – US GDP (2.4 % q/q)

12:30 GMT – US GDP Price Index (0.1 % q/q)

14:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (92.0)

19:45 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks