EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week began relatively strong as the Euro forced the Dollar into a weekly supply area coming in at 1.1678-1.1458. Despite this, weakness began to be seen once the NFP reported that employment numbers were stronger than expected, and thus caused the Euro to sell off forming a strong selling wick into the close (1.1312).

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: Last week’s action on the daily timeframe suggests that there was indecision in the market even with the positive U.S employment numbers being released. Price was seen boxed between a daily decision-point supply area visible at 1.1678-1.1540 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area), and a small, yet clearly active daily demand area coming in at 1.1260-1.1318.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Much like the daily timeframe, the 4hr timeframe also indicates price consolidation is present. From Tuesday onwards, trading took place between 1.1311 (located around the aforementioned daily demand area) and 1.1490. So, with the above in mind, what do we see happening today and possibly into the week?

Given that the weekly timeframe shows active selling from weekly supply (1.1678-1.1458) at the moment, we naturally feel more biased to shorts. However, for further downside to be seen, the sellers must take out both the lower 4hr range limit at 1.1311 and the small daily demand area at 1.1260-1.1318. If this does occur, you may want to take into account that a small fresh 4hr decision-point demand area lurks below at 1.1222-1.1253 before hitting the sell button.

For us, shorts will only be considered once, or indeed if price breaks below and retests 1.1200, we would then be looking to target the weekly Quasimodo support level at 1.1109. Again though, this would not be considered a high-probability trade since we would effectively be selling down towards higher timeframe support!

As a final point, our team has not ruled out price rallying from the lower limits of the current 4hr range (see above). Assuming that this does indeed take place, and price reaches the upper limits (1.1490) of the range, we would then be looking for confirmed sells around the 1.1483 mark. Traders should EXPECT price to fake above this level into a 4hr decision-point supply area coming in at 1.1564-1.1509 (located around the aforementioned daily decision-point supply area), hence the need to wait for lower-timeframe confirmation here.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.1483 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw strong buying from the weekly Quasimodo support level at 1.5007 (located within weekly demand at 1.4812-1.5097). This consequently forced the market to attack a weekly swap level coming in at 1.5270. Selling opposition was clearly too strong on this occasion as the market closed just below this level at 1.5233. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes has to say about this…

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The rebound seen from the aforementioned weekly swap level on the daily timeframe appears weak.  Friday’s positive NFP numbers potentially saved this weekly swap level from complete annihilation. The majority of technical sellers were already likely stopped out here on Thursday (strong bull candle), which in turn possibly did two things:

  • Gave pro money the liquidity i.e. buy stops to short during NFP.
  • Cleared the path north towards a daily swap level seen at 1.5433.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show price has broken above (blue arrow) a 4hr supply area at 1.5318-1.5270, which in turn has likely caused three things to happen:

  • Consumed the majority of sellers out (stopped out).
  • Trapped breakout buyers.
  • Cleared the path north towards the aforementioned daily swap level.

Taking the above into consideration, we feel that the GBP still has potential. Admittedly, price is trading around a weekly swap level resistance (1.5270) at the moment, but looking at how price reacted to this hurdle does not exactly feel us with confidence to begin looking for shorts at this point in time. This coupled with the 4hr timeframe showing clear direction north (point 3 above), our bias is long for the time being.

That being the case, we have placed a pending buy order at 1.5183 just above a 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 1.5138-1.5178. We believe this area to be where pro money ’made the decision’ to break above the aforementioned 4hr decision-point supply area, therefore we feel that there’s a good chance unfilled buy orders are still lurking here. What is also interesting about this 4hr decision-point demand area is the fact the round number 1.5200 is floating just above it. This will likely be a magnet for price, and with psychological numbers prone to fakeouts, we’re expecting price to do just that – fake below and fill our order before rallying higher as per the green arrows.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.5183 (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: 1.5133).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The AUD/USD pair finished the week defending a weekly demand area seen at 0.7449-0.7678. However, judging from the recently closed weekly candle (indecision), it was clear that both the buyers and sellers were hesitant around this zone, thus forcing the market to close relatively neutral at 0.7782. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this…

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: As you can see, price action was a little bit of a mess last week on the daily timeframe as the buyers and sellers were seen battling for position within a daily Quasimodo support area at 0.7699-0.7834. On top of that, Tuesday saw price spike lower, likely stopping out a huge amount of traders attempting to fade this daily area. Considering that price is trading above weekly demand (see above) at the moment, we currently believe this ‘spike’ to be a fakeout into the aforementioned weekly demand area which could see higher prices ensue this week.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Friday’s trading action saw price initially rally higher hitting a 4hr swap level coming in at 0.7856.  This was clearly a level of interest, since traders used this level to sell from during the NFP announcement, eventually forcing price to close just below the 0.7800 handle.

With all of the above taken into account, our team believes further downside is expected this week. We know this may sound incongruous with price trading around weekly demand (0.7449-0.7678) at the moment, but here is how we see it going down this week…

Assuming that the market holds below 0.7800, we see sellers bring prices down to test Thursday’s low at 0.7732, which we believe will likely be taken out. Once this level has been chewed up, price will likely dip lower to either the 4hr Quasimodo support level coming in at 0.7718 (tentative buy orders seen just above at 0.7723), or the fakeout zone seen at 0.7625-0.7675 (tentative buy orders seen just above at 0.7681) as per the blue arrows. We call it a fakeout zone since it is the deepest area within the overall (potential) fakeout seen on the higher timeframe.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.7723 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 0.7681 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.7621).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows that buyers continued to hold price above the major weekly swap level seen at 115.50. Assuming further upside continues to be seen, we see very little reason why price cannot reach the weekly Quasimodo resistance level sometime in the near future.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: A positive NFP number saw the USD strengthen against the Yen as price was forced up towards a daily supply area coming in at 119.95-119.14. This area of supply remains a key obstacle to a move towards a fresh drop-base-drop daily supply area seen above at 122.61-121.54 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level).

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The recent ascent on the 4hr timeframe took out several (4hr) resistance barriers before hitting a small, yet clearly reactive 4hr supply area at 119.31-119.12 (located just within the daily supply area at 119.95-119.14).

Given the points made above, where do we see the USD/JPY pair trading this week? Well, the market can only move south if the sellers take out the buying pressure from both the 119.00 handle and the 4hr swap area seen just below it at 118.84-118.52.

Conversely, for the market to move north, the buyers would need to consume any selling opposition around the current 4hr supply area at 119.31-119.12. A close above here would effectively be our cue to begin looking for longs up to 4hr supply coming in at 120.63-120.39. Entering long here on a break and retest (as we’re sure you’re aware) would ultimately see us buying into the daily supply area mentioned above at 119.95-119.14. Be that as it may, the reason we’re not put off by this is simply because of how the daily supply area is structured to the left on the 4hr timeframe. It is has very little active supply left within the zone as can be seen by the prominent consumption wicks at: 119.75/119.86, thus suggesting weakness up until around the 4hr supply area just mentioned above at 120.63-120.39.

4HR

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: Selling interest was clearly present last week around the major weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.2765. Assuming that the sellers can continue with this tempo, we feel there is a very good chance that price will hit the weekly swap level at 1.2260 sometime soon.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand shows that from Tuesday onwards, the buyers and sellers were seen pulling for position around a daily decision-point demand area coming in at 1.2378-1.2468. As you can probably see, this area of demand remains a key obstacle to a move towards the aforementioned weekly swap level.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Recent events on the USD/CAD pair has seen price bouncing between a 4hr swap level at 1.2379 (lower limit of the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area), and a 4hr supply area coming in at 1.2643-1.2574.

A break above the aforementioned 4hr supply area would likely see the market test 1.2700. Selling from here with lower timeframe confirmation is something we’d be interested in taking part in, since let’s not forget that the market is currently being held south at the moment by a major weekly Quasimodo resistance level (see above).

Buying on the other hand would only be considered once/if price breaks below the aforementioned 4hr swap level, and hits the 1.2300 handle. This level – coupled with the weekly swap level lurking below it at 1.2260 forms an awesome barrier of support to look for confirmed longs into the market.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: watching for lower timeframe confirmation around 1.2300/1.2260 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).                                                       
  • Sell orders: watching for lower timeframe confirmation around 1.2700 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the volatility on this pair decreased last week, resulting in price forming a weekly indecision candle in between two weekly swap levels (0.9204/0.9382).

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price is currently stalling above the weekly swap level at 0.9204. Assuming that the buyers can hold out above here, we see very little reason why price cannot challenge the weekly swap level seen just above it at 0.9382.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Recent movements on the 4hr timeframe indicate that price is well and truly boxed in between a 4hr swap level seen at 0.9316 (remains a key obstacle to a move towards the weekly swap level at 0.9382), and the weekly swap level mentioned above at 0.9204. In all honesty, price action looks a right mess at the moment and is something we have no interest whatsoever in trading.

From a technical perspective, a break below and retest of the aforementioned weekly swap level 0.9204 could provide a nice selling opportunity down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 0.8984-0.9054. Conversely, a break above the aforementioned 4hr swap level would likely attract further upside towards the weekly swap level seen at 0.9382. It would be at this point we’d feel comfortable looking for confirmed sell trades around the 0.9380 mark.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).                                                   
  • Sell orders: 0.9380 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

DOW 30:         

Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows that price rebounded strongly from the ignored weekly Quasimodo level coming in at 17135. In the event that further buying is seen this week, we feel there’s a very good chance that price will attack the overall high seen at 18098.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: Friday’s trading action saw the market print an indecision candle around a daily swap level coming in at 17896. This barrier remains a key obstacle to a move towards the daily supply area seen at 18098-18045. In the event that the sellers can however hold the market lower here, we have to be prepared for the possibility that a sell off may well be seen down towards the daily decision-point demand area at 17561-17655.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Recent events on the 4hr timeframe saw price break above (blue arrow) a well-respected 4hr supply area coming in at 17934-17855. This move has likely cleared the path north towards a small 4hr supply area seen at 18047-18014 located just below the aforementioned daily supply area.

Late on Friday support was seen coming into the market from Wednesday’s high at 17781, assuming that the buyers can hold out above this level, we feel there is a good chance that price will rally today up to the 4hr supply area mentioned above at 18047-18014. That being the case, our team will be watching for confirmed buy trades on the lower timeframes around this zone today. However, in the event this 4hr swap level fails to hold, a decline in value could very well be seen down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area at 17561-17617 (located deep within the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area). It would be at this point we’d once again begin watching the lower timeframes for buying confirmation around the 17625 mark.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: watching current price for buying confirmation off of 17781 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 17625 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17548).               
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe:  Last week saw Gold decrease in value as price closed below a relatively important weekly swap level seen at 1251.5. This move was likely fuelled by positive U.S employment data released on Friday. Consequent to price breaking lower here, one should refrain from getting too excited since potential weekly support is seen coming in just below at 1222.2; it will be interesting to see what the lower timeframe picture has to say about this…

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: Friday’s rather aggressive sell off saw price hit a daily decision-point demand area seen at 1224.9-1235.7 (sitting just above weekly support at 1222.2). We believe this zone to be significant since this is likely where pro money made the ‘decision’ to break above the weekly swap level (see above), and it is for this reason that unfilled buy orders may well still reside here.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Much like the daily timeframe, the 4hr timeframe saw price hit a 4hr decision-point demand area at 1224.9-1232.1 (seen deep within the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area) at around 3pm GMT time on Friday.

Buying from this 4hr decision-point demand area and targeting the weekly swap level above at 1251.5 is in our opinion a valid strategy, BUT and we have capitalized the word ‘but’ here for good reason! Entering long at this area of demand should be done with caution, as one would need to be prepared for price to fake lower down into the weekly support coming in just below it marked in green at 1222.2. For this reason, we have decided to play this cautiously and wait for price action on the lower timeframe to confirm whether this area has strength before putting our money at risk.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: currently watching for lower timeframe confirmation around the 4hr decision-point demand area at 1224.9-1232.1 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this area).               
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).