EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the EUR/USD is currently trading above last week’s close (1.1276), assuming that the buyers can continue to hold price above this level, we feel that there is a good chance the market will hit the weekly supply area looming just above at 1.1678-1.1458.

Daily Timeframe: For further buying to be seen on the weekly timeframe, the buyers will have to take out any selling opposition seen around the daily swap level visible at 1.1378. A break above here would likely attract further buying towards a daily decision-point supply area seen at 1.1678-1.1540, which is conveniently located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area.

4hr Timeframe: The Euro began the week positively with price gapping north at the open (1.1309), this move forced the market to attack a small, yet clearly respected 4hr decision-point supply area at 1.1381-1.1349 (surrounds the daily swap level mentioned above at 1.1378).  A break above this 4hr area will likely see price hit psychological resistance at 1.1400, which as you can see boasts trendline confluence formed from the high 1.1845 on 14/01/15. So, considering where price is located on the daily timeframe and on the 4hr timeframe at the moment, entering long on the sole basis of price trading above the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level (see above) does not interest us for the time being. As such, opting to remain flat is sometimes the best position to hold, and we believe this to be the case here.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Technically, the weekly timeframe picture appears weak, as last week saw the market print an inverted pin-bar candle forcing  price to once again close (1.5048) within weekly demand at 1.4812-1.5097. In addition to this, price could not even muster the strength to close above a relatively long-term weekly trendline level (1.4225 – 17/05/10), which in itself does not exactly inspire GBP confidence at the moment.

Daily Timeframe: There was not much action seen from the GBP yesterday on the daily timeframe, as price remained trading around a minor daily demand area coming in at 1.4950-1.5034 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr Timeframe: Like the Euro, the GBP also opened (1.5096) positively with price gapping north towards a 4hr swap (supply) area coming in at 1.5058-1.5103. This move consequently attracted fresh sellers into the market and forced price back down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 1.4977-1.5016 (seen within the aforementioned daily demand area).

(Due to little price movement, Monday’s analysis still remains valid). At this point in time, the weekly chart action is not showing us anything to tempt us to trade long. The daily chart on the other hand shows price lingering around daily demand, but with near-term daily supply sitting at 1.5211-1.5140, entering long based off of the weekly and daily view is something we’re very cautious of (see above for levels).

From a technical perspective, the 4hr timeframe also shows troublesome resistance barriers on the horizon at:

  • The aforementioned 4hr swap area.
  • A 4hr decision-point supply area at 1.5161-1.5130.
  • And last but not least the ‘good old’ round-number 1.5200.

From where we’re standing, this is a lot of ‘wood to chop through’, and is something we feel is best left alone for the time being. Therefore, with buying out of the question, where does this leave selling? Our team has discussed this in detail and has decided that no selling will be undertaken until we see either a clear near-term profit target to strive for, or the aforementioned weekly demand area gets taken out.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows buying interest entering the market deep within a weekly demand area coming in at 0.7699-0.7974. Provided that the buyers can continue with this tempo, we see very little resistance on this pair until price hits the swap level at 0.8064.

Daily Timeframe: All in all, yesterday was a relatively good day for anyone long the Aussie. Buyers came into the market deep within a daily Quasimodo support area at 0.7699-0.7834 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area). Admittedly, this does look promising, but with the aggressive selling seen over the past two weeks, this may very well be shorts covering their positions. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this…

4hr Timeframe: Recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show that ever since the market opened at 0.7748, the buyers were seen taking overall control. Price was eventually forced above both a minor 4hr supply area coming in at 0.7798-0.7772 and the round-number 0.7800 sitting just above it, which at the time of writing price is presently retesting it as support.

From this point onwards, we intend to begin watching the 15/30 minute timeframes for buying confirmation around the 0.7800 mark. In the event that we do happen to stumble across a quality confirmation signal here, our first take-profit target will be set at 0.7852, just below a 4hr swap level at 0.7856.

Supporting factors for a long trade are as follows:

  • Price is currently dancing deep within weekly demand at 0.7699-0.7974.
  • Buying strength is currently being seen from within a daily Quasimodo support area at 0.7699-0.7834.
  • The 4hr timeframe shows a clear break and retest long entry forming at 0.7800, with a profit target free of resistance up to 0.7852 (see above).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.7800 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows price is currently hovering above a major weekly swap level (115.50) at the moment. As long as price remains trading above here, our sentiment for this pair will continue to be bullish.

Daily Timeframe: Little price movement on the daily timeframe has resulted in the market forming what looks to be a bullish continuation flag. Overall though, the pair remains trapped between a small daily supply area seen just above at 119.95-119.14, and a daily demand area seen below at 115.55-116.38. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this…

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that market opened (116.87) 64 pips lower than Friday’s close at 117.51, consequently forcing the market to fake below the current 4hr range (118.84-118.52/116.91-117.22).

This fakeout has very likely stopped out a large amount of buyers which has potentially cleared the path south down towards 4hr demand at 115.55-116.06 (seen deep within the aforementioned daily demand area). As such a convincing break below the low 116.86 will be our cue to begin looking for selling opportunities. However, selling here should be done so with strict trade management rules since we would effectively be selling down towards higher-timeframe demand (see above).

With regards to buying, our team has agreed that we would not be comfortable entering long until we’re satisfied buying strength is still present within the 4hr range (see above). A close above the high seen marked with a blue arrow at 117.86 would in our opinion be enough to prove this.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: Selling interest is clearly present from the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.2765. Assuming that the sellers continue with this intensity, we do not see any serious buying opposition in the way until price reaches the weekly swap level coming in at 1.2260.

Daily Timeframe: For anyone who sold at the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level, you are very likely in the green now with a big smile on your face. With support not expected to come into the market until price hits the daily decision-point demand area at 1.2378-1.2468, we’re expecting this selling to continue for the time being.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe reveals that the recent sell off broke below both the 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.2606-1.2626 and round-number 1.2600. It was mentioned in our previous report that if price were to break below here, we’d then consider looking for selling opportunities and leave longs on the side lines…

As we can see, price beautifully retested the round-number 1.2600 as resistance which is something we’d have really liked to have been involved in! Not all is lost though; we may still get a second chance. As long as price does not hit our intended target, which is the 4hr decision-point demand area below at 1.2510-1.2533, price may retest this level once again, and this time we’ll be waiting.

4hr

 Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).                                                       
  • Sell orders: Watching for lower timeframe confirmation around 1.2600 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: Recent developments show the USD/CHF pair began the week positively with prices gapping north above a major weekly swap level coming in at 0.9204. As a result, this has likely opened the gates for the market to challenge yet another (albeit minor) weekly swap level seen at 0.9382.

Daily Timeframe: Indecision from both the buying and selling camps was clearly felt in the market yesterday, which may lead to price retesting the 0.9204 weekly swap level before rallying higher to 0.9382 (see above); hopefully the 4hr timeframe will offer us more information…

4hr Timeframe: The market opened at 0.9264 and climbed to a 4hr swap level seen at 0.9316. This level is significant to us as it is a key obstacle to a move towards the weekly swap level mentioned above at 0.9382.

Given that the weekly timeframe shows price breaking above a major weekly swap level, and the daily timeframe showing much the same (see above), we have come to a general understanding that buying is far more favorable than selling at the moment.  That being the case, assuming price breaks below temporary 4hr support seen at 0.9232, we’d be very interested in looking for confirmed buying opportunities on the retest of the weekly swap level at 0.9204. Assuming we find an entry, our first take profit target would be set at 0.9312, a little below the aforementioned 4hr swap level (as per the blue arrows).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Watching for buying confirmation around the 0.9204 mark (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).                                                   
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW 30:         

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that for seven consecutive weeks price has been teasing the ignored weekly Quasimodo level at 17135. Provided that the buyers can continue to hold the market above this barrier, our overall bias will remain long.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday was clearly a good day for anyone long the DOW index as price was bought heavily from deep within a daily demand area at 17032-17186 (surrounds the aforementioned ignored weekly Quasimodo level).  Providing that the buyers can continue with this tempo, we see very little selling opposition on the horizon until price reaches a small daily supply area coming in at 17698-17649.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who read our last report on the DOW, you may recall us mentioning that we intended to watch for confirmed buy trades around the 17165 mark, just above the 4hr decision-point demand area at 17084-17150. You may also remember that we were not satisfied with this 4hr area due to the fact that price had already visited it once already on 29/01/15 at 17130.

On this occasion, we happened to be correct.  A humongous fakeout below it was seen – one can only imagine the amount of stops taken here!! While watching the fakeout in progress on the 30 minute timeframe, we saw an optimal entry to buy. Price engulfed the high17252, then retraced and hit 30 minute demand at 17034-17118 which is where decided to take the leap and enter long getting filled at 17119. As you can see our position is nicely in profit at the moment and with our stop loss order sitting at breakeven, we’re aiming to ride this wave up to at least the minor 4hr Quasimodo resistance level at 17500, where at which point we’d wait for price action to tell us what to do next. A break above here would be fantastic, and will likely give us the chance to add to our position buying on any retest that may be seen. The final target for both trades would then be set around the 4hr supply area seen at 17698-17663 (located deep within the aforementioned daily supply area).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17119 [LIVE] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: set at breakeven).               
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe:  Recent developments on the weekly timeframe show that price formed a nice-looking bullish pin-bar candle off of a weekly swap level last week at 1251.5. This came shortly after price broke above a weekly supply area coming in at 1296.3-1269.3. Could this mean a rally higher may be in store this week?

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows a rally higher can only take place once/if price consumes the selling opposition around a minor daily decision-point supply area at 1297.4-1284.3. Should this area be taken out, price will then likely be free to test a daily supply area seen at 1319.2-1308.6.

4hr Timeframe: The Gold market opened at 1281.2 deep within a 4hr decision-point supply area coming in at 1284.9-1278.1 (located just below the aforementioned minor daily decision-point supply area), so it was no surprise to see that price sold off down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area at 1258.3-1266.4.

We still stand by what we said yesterday in that we believe we may not have to wait for price to close above the aforementioned minor daily decision-point supply area to begin looking for longs.  Assuming that price closes above the aforementioned 4hr decision-point supply area sometime this week, this could essentially be a signal to begin preparing to enter long. What you’re likely thinking now is: ‘but if you look for buys once price breaks the 4hr decision-point supply area, will you not be buying into the daily decision-point supply area?’ Effectively, yes we would. But, take a look above this 4hr area, check out the wicks marked with green arrows at 1292.9/1297.4/1299.0/1299.5, to us these represent consumption, i.e. very little selling pressure left. So with that, the path north (upon breaking above the 4hr decision-point supply area) will likely be open for prices to test the 4hr swap level coming in at 1305.20, which is conveniently located just below the daily supply area mentioned above at 1319.2-1308.6. Therefore, buying Gold will only be considered upon price closing above the aforementioned 4hr decision-point supply area.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).               
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).