Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.25 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.20 %, Hang Seng dropped 0.20 %, ASX is closed
  • Commodities: Gold at $1292 (-0.10 %), Silver at $18.25 (-0.30 %), WTI OIl at $44.98 (-1.30 %), Brent Oil at $48.28 (-0.75 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.76, UK 10 year yield at 1.478, German 10 year yield at 0.367

News & Data:

  • Japan Adjusted Trade Balance -¥0.71trln, Expected: -¥0.74trln, Previous: -¥0.83trln
  • Japan Trade Balance -¥661bln, Expected: -¥740bln, Previous: -¥892bln
  • Japan Exports 12.9 %, Expected: 11.0 %, Previous: 4.9 %
  • Japan Imports 1.9 %, Expected: 2.3 %, Previous: -1.7 %
  • New Zealand Performance Services Index 56.6, Previous: 54.8
  • Bank of Japan Minutes: BOJ to keep easing till 2% inflation stable 
  • BOJ Minutes: Economy has continued to recover moderately
  • BOJ Minutes: Inflation expectations key to future monetary policy
  • BOJ Minutes: Weak oil prices to raise CPI in longer term
  • Euro Falls to Lowest Since 2003 on Syriza Victory; Krone Slides (BBG)
  • Euro Slips With U.S. Futures on Greece as Treasuries Gain (BBG)
  • Oil Slides to Near 6-Year Low; Saudi Arabia Holds Firm Despite Supply Glut (BBG)

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR net short 181K vs 168K net short prior
  • JPY net short 78K vs 94K net short prior
  • GBP net short 46K vs net short 37K prior
  • AUD net short 47K vs net short 45K prior
  • CAD net short 29K vs net short 21K prior
  • CHF net short 10K vs net short 26K prior
  • NZD net short 2k vs net short 2k prior
  • Gold net long 162K vs net long 130K prior

Markets Update:

The Euro fell at the Asian open after Greece elected the far-left party Syriza which opposes the austerity reforms introduced three years ago. EUR/USD bounced from there and is almost back above 1.12, but sentiment is likely to remain EUR-negative over the coming days given the political tensions. The pivotal resistance area is now noted at 1.1280-1.13 and it would require a break & close above to trigger a larger short squeeze. To the downside, 1.11 now the pivotal support level and not much until 1.10 should we break lower.

The commodity currencies remained weak overnight and Oil declined again to fresh lows. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to consolidate in it's 117-119 range. The Yen is likely to benefit from the current risk-off sentiment and the stops resting sub-116.90 look increasingly vulnerable.

Looking ahead, the main event of the day will be the German IFOs release at 09:00 GMT, with no major data releases scheduled for the US session. See below for a list of the main events in the new trading week.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:00 GMT – Spanish PPI (-1.2 % y/y)
  • 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate (106.3)
  • 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Expectations (102.5)
  • 09:00 GMT – German IFO Current Assessment (110.7)

Weekly Data Preview:

Tuesday, January 26th

  • 09:30 GMT – UK GDP (0.6 % q/q, 2.8 % y/y)
  • 13:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders (0.5 %)
  • 15:00 GMT – US New Home Sales (2.7 %)
  • 15:00 GMT – US CB Consumer Confidence (95.0)

Wednesday, January 28th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian CPI (0.3 % q/q, 1.8 % y/y)
  • 19:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
  • 20:00 GMT – New Zealand Interest Rate Decision (3.50 %)
  • 20:00 GMT – RBNZ Statement

Thursday, January 29th

  • 08:55 GMT – German Unemployment Change & Rate
  • 13:00 GMT – German CPI (-0.8 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)
  • 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims (300k)
  • 15:00 GMT – US Pending Home Sales (0.5 %)

Friday, January 30th

  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI (-0.5 % y/y)
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Unemploymnt Rate (11.5 %)
  • 13:30 GMT – US GDP (3.1 % q/q)
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian GDP (-0.1 % m/m)