EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that the buyers and sellers are battling for position within a major weekly demand area coming in at 1.1373-1.1617. Further buying from here could potentially see the Euro visit 1.1758, an ignored weekly Quasimodo level.

Daily Timeframe: The recent buying seen from daily demand at 1.1443-1.1533 came under pressure yesterday as strong sellers entered the market. Things are not looking too good for anyone presently long the Euro at the moment.

4hr Timeframe: The recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show that price closed below the 1.1600 handle, and attacked a small, yet clearly active 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.1549-1.1569. This forced the market north to retest 1.1600 as resistance. For anyone who read our last report on the Euro, we mentioned that if prices retest 1.6100, we’d begin looking for lower-timeframe selling confirmation. We found a beautiful short entry on the 30- minute timeframe yesterday at 1.16017 which is still currently active.

With the most recent 4hr candle closing below the aforementioned minor 4hr decision-point demand area, we feel there is a good chance that another round of selling interest will filter into the Euro sometime today down towards 1.1500, which is where we intend to liquidate half of our position.

We are fully aware that we have sold into higher-timeframe demand here (see above), and from a technical standpoint we should really be looking for longs. However, with the Eurozone being in the state that it is, and the relentless selling that’s been seen over the past 8 months, we felt this was a pretty safe bet. In addition to this, our trade is being continually monitored for any sign of buying interest which if seen we’ll close the position without hesitation.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.16017 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Currently at breakeven).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that buying and selling is currently taking place just above a weekly demand area at 1.4812-1.5097. From a technical perspective, this weekly demand area should be particularly attractive to investors, since it also boasts trendline confluence from the low 1.4225 (17/05/10).

Daily Timeframe: For the second time this month (previous was on 07/01/15), price is once again attacking a daily Quasimodo support area at 1.5007-1.5097. Providing that the buyers can outweigh any selling opposition here, we could potentially see the GBP test a weekly swap level coming in at 1.5270.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who read our last report on the GBP/USD, we mentioned to watch for buying at either 1.5100, or the 4hr Quasimodo support area below at 1.5206-1.5060 (located deep within the aforementioned daily Quasimodo area at). As we can all see, the 4hr Quasimodo support area provided a nice base for the GBP to rocket prices north, it’s just a shame we did not see any corresponding buying confirmation as the risk/reward on this trade was fantastic.

At the time of writing, the upward momentum has begun to crumble as sellers entered the market around the 1.5200 handle, which consequently forced the market down into a 4hr swap area seen at 1.5177-1.5142.

With the above taken into account, risk/reward parameters restrict us from entering long here with potential resistance sitting at 1.5200. Equally, selling on the break and retest of the aforementioned 4hr swap area may not be the best path to take with potential support lurking just below at 1.5100. Therefore, in absence of clearer direction, we’ve opted to remain flat for the time being.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price remains trading deep within a major weekly demand area seen at 0.8064-0.8460. As bullish as this sounds, we are currently seeing selling interest once again around the underside of a recently broken descending channel (limits can be found at 0.9556 – 21/10/13 … 0.8846 – 05/08/13). It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that active selling is taking place around the 0.8214 high. Assuming that the sellers keep up with this enthusiasm, we see very little stopping the AUD declining back down towards a small daily demand area at 0.8031-0.8072.

4hr Timeframe: Recent developments on the 4hr timeframe reveal prices broke below 0.8200 and hit a minor 4hr swap level coming in at 0.8168. Risk/reward parameters argue against entering long here with price so close to potential resistance at 0.8200. However, in the event that price breaks above and successfully retests 0.8200, we feel that the path north would then likely be clear up to 0.8300. The reasons for why is simply because we see consumed supply to the left depicted by a small trendline.

Conversely, a shorting opportunity may present itself if price breaks and retests the aforementioned 4hr swap level – 0.8310 would make a nice first take-profit target. Using lower-timeframe confirmation is advised here as swap levels such as these tend to fakeout often.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The USD/JPY pair shows that buying interest is currently being seen from just above a major weekly swap level coming in at 115.50.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw further buying enter the market which we believe was a result of price consuming selling opposition around a daily swap area seen at 117.22-117.64.  Assuming that further buying is seen, there is a good chance that prices will hit a daily supply area coming in at 119.95-119.14 sometime soon.

4hr Timeframe: As we can all see the recent buying has taken out both the 4hr supply area at 117.93-117.69, and the round-number level 118.00. This move consequently forced the market deep within a nice-looking 4hr supply area seen at 118.84-118.52. With both the weekly and daily timeframe showing strength in the market at the moment, we feel that this current 4hr supply area will be consumed, which as a result will likely force the USD north towards a small area of 4hr supply coming in at 119.31-119.12. It would be at this point that we’d begin watching the lower timeframes for selling confirmation around the 119.08 mark. This is an attractive ‘sell zone’ since it’s located just within the aforementioned daily supply area, and as such could provide a nice bounce. The reason this trade requires confirmation is simply because prices are currently seen hovering just above a major weekly swap level (see above) at the moment.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 119.08 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 119.36).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the USD/CAD pair close above a major weekly swap level coming in at 1.1870. As a result, price advanced to a fresh high of 1.2045, and has at the same time likely opened the gates for the market to challenge a weekly swap level seen at 1.2260.

Daily Timeframe: We hope everyone fastened their seat belts yesterday as the USD took off and consumed a daily swap level at 1.2022. There’s also very little on the daily timeframe that will likely slow prices down until the market reaches a daily supply area coming in at 1.2265-1.2162 (the aforementioned weekly swap level is seen deep within this zone).

4hr Timeframe: As we can all see, 4hr support came into the market at 1.1931, which after a little hesitation saw price strongly push above 1.2000 and continue towards 1.2100. And It is here that the buyers and sellers are currently seen battling for position. A close above would likely prompt a rapid retest which is something we’d be very interested in buying into, with 1.2150 in mind for a take-profit target (seen just below the aforementioned daily supply area).

For us personally, assuming a break/retest is seen of course, we would not be comfortable entering on the retest with a pending buy order, since psychological levels are sometimes prone to fakeouts, therefore we plan to watch the lower-timeframes for a confirmation signal.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows that the rebound seen from the weekly decision-point demand area at 9126-9467 has recently extended higher and closed above a weekly resistance level at 10048. Providing that 10048 now holds as support, we see very little reason why the DAX cannot continue higher.

Daily Timeframe: two days of sideways action implies that the recent upward momentum may be diminishing. As a consequence, this could see the DAX decline in value down to a daily swap area coming in at 10094-10007. And provided that this area can provide support, we see very little stopping this market from continuing north.

4hr Timeframe: Technically, this market has seen very little change, and as such, much of our previous analysis still remains valid:

The 4hr timeframe shows that ever since the market opened at 10276, the buyers and sellers have been trading around the upper limit of an ascending channel (9216 – 16/12/14, 9919 – 19/12/14). In the event that this resistance is successful in motivating the sellers to push south here, we see buying opportunities at the following near-term swap areas:

  1. 10094-10068 (tentative buy orders are seen at 10103); this area remains a relatively strong zone to watch for buying since its located deep within a daily swap area mentioned above at 10094-10007.
  2. 9945-9917 (tentative buy orders are seen at 9953), this area also holds significance since it was likely here that pro money made the decision to break above the high10094, thus unfilled buy orders may still be lurking around this area.

Buying at these areas is high probability in our opinion. However, we have no intention of placing pending buy orders at either of these areas since price so very often fakes below swap areas such as these. Lower-timeframe confirmation is a must here.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 10103 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 10055) 9953 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 9903).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that for six consecutive weeks price has been hovering above an ignored weekly Quasimodo level at 17135. In the event that this level fails, follow-through selling will likely be seen down towards a weekly support level coming in at 16051.

Daily Timeframe: Friday’s trading action saw buyers entering the market just above a daily demand area at 17032-17186 (this area surrounds the aforementioned ignored weekly Quasimodo level). Despite this enthusiastic buying, there was very little follow-through seen on Monday and Tuesday indicating indecision is likely present at the moment. Hopefully the 4hr timeframe will offer us a little more information.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe reveals that the DOW is currently ranging between a 4hr supply area coming in at 17638-17537, and a 4hr demand area seen at 17248-17344.  Trading within this range offers potential buying opportunities around the 17355 mark, and likewise, sell trades at 17531. For anyone considering trading within this range, we would highly recommend using some sort of confirmation signal since fakeouts are so very common within ranging environments.

In the event that price breaks south and continues down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area at 17084-17150, we’d be very interested in buying here @ market around the17155 mark. Not only is this 4hr demand beautifully located within the aforementioned daily demand zone, it also encapsulates the aforementioned ignored weekly Quasimodo level as well, consequently forming a highly confluent area for buy trades (for levels see above).

A break above however would likely force the market to test a 4hr decision-point supply level at 17779 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 17770), which converges beautifully with a trendline formed from the high 18099. Selling from here would in our opinion require lower-timeframe confirmation owing to the fact that we do not see any logical areas to place a stop-loss order, and we would effectively be going against higher-timeframe opposition. We’re not expecting much from this level, other than a quick bounce trade.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17355 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 17155 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17067).
  • Sell orders: 17531 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 17770 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that Gold has pushed above the weekly supply area at 1255.2-1226.1, and traded directly into an oncoming supply area seen at 1296.3-1269.3.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday was clearly a day for the buyers as prices were rocketed north deep into a daily supply area seen at 1296.3-1289.2 (seen deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area). A break above this area will likely entice further buying up towards another daily supply area coming in at 1319.2-1308.6.

4hr Timeframe: With both the weekly and daily timeframes trading within supply at the moment (see above), we were naturally more biased to shorts – that is until we analyzed the 4hr timeframe which tells a different story entirely…

Recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show price breaking above both a 4hr swap level at 1280.3, and also a 4hr decision-point supply level seen at 1286.1, which at the time of writing price is currently retesting as support. Looking to the left, we do not see any active supply, in fact all we see is consumption – check out the following consumption wicks at: 1289.8/1291.2/1296.3/1302.2/1303.5/1310.05.

Under the circumstances, we effectively have conflicting signals, on the one hand the weekly and daily timeframes are telling us to sell, on the other, the 4hr timeframe is saying that the coast is clear for buying. With that, we have decided to begin watching for lower-timeframe buying confirmation around the 1286.1 area targeting the next fresh 4hr supply area which comes in at 1315.0-1311.2 (located within the daily supply area mentioned above at 1319.2-1308.6). Assuming that we find an entry long here, the trade will require constant attention and strict trade management rules.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around the 1286.1 area (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms the trade).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).