EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The buyers and sellers continue to battle for position around a weekly Quasimodo support level seen at 1.1758. This level is particularly attractive since it boasts additional confluence from a long-term weekly trendline formed from the low 0.8230 (23/10/2000).

Daily Timeframe: After four days of consolidative trading action seen around a daily demand area at 1.1776-1.1838, yesterday saw the Euro push lower into (what we like to call) a ‘mini demand ’ coming in at 1.1700-1.1722 (located just below the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level).

4hr Timeframe: Our sentiment regarding the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. We have absolutely no interest in selling the Euro at this point in time. Selling will only be permitted when or indeed if price closes below and retests the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level, until that happens, our finger is staying off the sell button for the time being.

Admittedly, buying this pair is tempting at the moment considering where price is located in the higher-timeframe picture (see above). But as things stand, we have come to a general consensus that no buy trades will be executed until price consumes the 4hr supply/round-number area seen at 1.1895-1.1856/1.1900. The close above 1.1900 will effectively be our tip-off so to speak to begin preparing to enter long on any retest offered, targeting 1.2000. The reason we believe prices can rally from 1.1900 to 1.2000 is simply because there are clear supply consumption wicks seen to the immediate left marked with green arrows at 1.1895/1.1957, which have likely cleared the path north.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Fresh buying interest from the weekly demand area at 1.4812-1.5097 has managed to rally prices up to a weekly swap level coming in at 1.5270. This should come as no surprise considering that this area boasts additional confluence from a long-term weekly trendline formed from the low 1.4225 (17/05/2010).

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that Monday and Tuesday’s trading sessions formed two buying tails off of a daily Quasimodo support area seen at 1.5007-1.5097 (located just within the aforementioned weekly demand area), which subsequently led to further buying being seen yesterday.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the GBP broke above 1.5200, and rallied towards a small 4hr supply area seen at 1.5272-1.5255 (located around the aforementioned weekly swap level). Following this, a sell off was seen back down towards 1.5200. In the event that the buyers can hold out above here, this could very well encourage further buying strength into the market forcing prices to challenge the aforementioned 4hr supply area once more. Conversely, a break below would likely push price down towards a small 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 1.5145-1.5171.

Therefore, with all the above taken into consideration, we presently have very little interest in selling this pair. Buying on the other hand around 1.5200 is something we’d consider only if corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation is seen, as psychological levels such as these are prone to fakeouts. If we find a suitable entry long here, our first take-profit target will be set at 1.5250, just below the aforementioned 4hr supply area. Targeting any higher would effectively mean waiting for the aforementioned weekly swap level to be consumed.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 1.5200 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw price push below a weekly demand area at 0.8064-0.8460 which consequently triggered buying in the market.  However, so far this week, selling interest is currently being seen at the underside (prior support) of a recently broken descending channel (limits can be found at 0.9556 – 21/10/13 … 0.8846 – 05/08/13). It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand shows that price recently took out a daily supply area at 0.8214-0.8160 on 12/01/15. This move has in all likelihood cleared the path north towards a daily swap area coming in at 0.8314-0.8405. Yesterday however saw price trade south and react off of a small daily demand area seen at 0.8031-0.8072. Assuming that there is reasonable buying strength located here, we could potentially see a rally towards the aforementioned daily swap area sometime soon.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price closed below 0.8100, but consequently found 0.8067 to be supportive enough to allow the buyers back into play.

So that we’re all on the same page here, let’s quickly recap: the weekly chart is showing resistive pressure within weekly demand, meanwhile on the daily timeframe, we have positive direction that price will likely trade north (see above), which for the time being gives us conflicting signals.

Therefore, with the above in mind, buying or selling this pair is risky in our opinion, and as such opting to stand on the side lines here may be the best path to take, at least until more favorable price action is seen.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price remains trading between a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18, and a major weekly swap level seen at 115.50.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action saw the USD decline in value against the Yen as prices were forced southbound into a nice-looking daily demand area at 115.55-116.38.

4hr Timeframe: The recent descent saw price consume several technical barriers before buying interest finally came into the market around a 4hr demand area seen at 115.55-116.06 (located deep within the aforementioned daily demand area). The rebound from here saw the market take out the 117.00 handle, and continue north towards an ignored 4hr Quasimodo level coming in at 117.43. A break above here would likely open the gates for prices to challenge 118.00, and potentially the 4hr supply area seen just above at 118.84-118.52 given enough time.

With that, buying this pair will only be permitted once/if price breaks and retests 117.43. Selling on the other hand is something we have absolutely no interest in taking part in at the moment for two reasons:

  1. The USD/JPY pair is ultimately trading from demand at the moment.
  2. Risk/reward parameters restrict us from selling at current prices with potential support looming just below at 117.00.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that price has broken above a weekly swap level coming in at 1.1870. As a result, this could open the doors to much higher prices in the future. Let’s see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe:  Yesterday saw further buying on the daily timeframe; this consequently drove prices towards a daily swap level at 1.2022. The buying pressure was unfortunately short-lived though as active sellers entered the market, resulting in a bearish pin bar candle being formed.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows price is presently trading just below a huge psychological-number: 1.2000 (22 pips below the aforementioned daily swap level).  In the event that price closes above 1.2000 and successfully retests it as support, this will likely attract further buying consequently pressing the buyers to attack the aforementioned daily swap level.

Conversely, assuming that the buyers cannot penetrate 1.2000, this will likely cause the USD to sell off back down towards 1.1900. At this point, it will be very difficult to even guess what’ll happen here, all we can do is wait for price action to tell us, as a decision will clearly need to be made here.

With the above taken on board, buying this pair will only be condoned if price breaks and retests 1.2000. Selling on the other hand may be possible as long as one enters using confirmation as close as possible to 1.2000. Targets for this trade will be just above 1.1900, around the 1.1905 mark.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 1.2000 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

 

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the rebound seen from the weekly decision-point demand area at 9126-9467 has recently extended higher. Assuming that the buyers can continue with this tempo, we feel there’s a good chance prices will test the 10048 level sometime soon.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action showed that the buyers and sellers collectively formed a doji candle, essentially showing indecision is present between 9790 and 9896. 9896 still remains to be a key obstacle to a move towards a daily resistance zone seen above at 10048-10007.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price continues to tease the daily swap level support at 9790. Assuming that the buyers can hold out above here, we feel there’s a good chance that prices will rally higher towards 10038, a minor 4hr swap level seen within the aforementioned daily resistance zone. So, selling the DAX at this time is certainly out of the question for us. With regards to buying, we mentioned in our last report that we were intending to watch for lower-timeframe buying confirmation around 9790, with the 10038 level in mind as a target – this is still the case. Reasons for requiring confirmation here are as follows:

  1. Recent indecisive behavior seen on the daily timeframe.
  2. No logical (close) areas for a stop-loss order.

4HR

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 9790 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that for five consecutive weeks, price has been hovering above an ignored weekly Quasimodo level at 17135. In the event that this level fails, follow-through selling will likely be seen down towards a weekly support level coming in at 16051.

Daily Timeframe: The DOW is presently witnessing consolidative trading action between two daily swap levels, resistance comes in at 17896, and support at 17362 (which is where price is currently trading at the time of writing). A break below could potentially inspire the sellers to continue pushing the market south down towards the aforementioned ignored Quasimodo level. Conversely, a break north would likely force price to test the overall high coming in at 18098.

4hr Timeframe: Recent developments show that:

  • A decline in value was seen (as reported may happen) which caused a small 4hr decision-point demand area at 17381-17416 to be taken out. This in turn forced the market down towards a 4hr demand area visible at 17248-17344, where at which point active buying was seen. This area is still remains on our watch list for confirmed buying opportunities as per the previous analysis.
  • Price still remains trapped within a triangle formation, which is currently compressing inwards giving the impression an explosive move is brewing.

Considering that the weekly timeframe shows price trading just above a supportive structure, and the daily timeframe is positioned around the lower-limits of the current range (see above), we feel a continuation move higher is favored at the moment. With that being said, we intend to continue watching the lower timeframe structure around the aforementioned 4hr demand area for potential buying opportunities, targeting up to at least the 4hr supply at 17368-17537.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: watching for lower-timeframe confirmed buying opportunities around the 4hr demand area at 17248-17344 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17242).                           
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is now trading within a weak-looking weekly supply area coming in at 1255.2-1226.1. The reason we believe this area to be weak is simply because price has already visited this area once already on the 08/12/14, consequently decreasing the chances of a reaction being seen here. What is more, notice that the first reaction did not form a lower low which tells us that that Gold’s selling pressure may be diminishing.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action saw price once again pierce above the daily supply area at 1238.1-1227.7 (located just within the aforementioned weekly supply area) effectively forming back-to-back bearish pin bars. This will likely get the pin-bar enthusiasts extra excited and begin selling. This could work out, and price could indeed drop. We on the other hand believe that these recently closed pin bars have in effect cleared the selling pressure around the aforementioned daily supply area, which in turn has likely cleared the path north towards a daily Quasimodo resistance level seen at 1249.4 (last line of defense for the weekly supply area mentioned above).

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that Gold recently drove prices higher into a 4hr supply area at 1244.5-1240.1 (seen just above daily supply at 1238.1-1227.7), which consequently saw Gold sell off. This informs us that most of the sellers are very likely consumed here now, and that the path north towards the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance level is potentially clear.

Our team has come to a general consensus that Gold will very likely rally. And as such, we intend to enter using a pending buy order set at 1224.3 just above a 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 1217.3-1223.4. The reasons for going in full tilt here and not waiting for confirmation are as follows:

  1. Our independent analysis reveals selling weakness on both the weekly and daily timeframes.
  2. The 4hr demand area sits just on top of a daily demand area seen at 1204.4-1216.5.
  3. The 4hr demand area is also extremely fresh.
  4. The low seen marked with a blue arrow at 1224.9 is begging to be faked into true demand. Imagine the stops sitting just below there just waiting to be triggered.
  5. The risk/reward on this trade is over 4:1 if one targets the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance level.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1224.3 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1216.6).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).