EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The buyers and sellers continue to battle for position around a weekly Quasimodo support level seen at 1.1758. This level is particularly attractive since it boasts additional confluence from a long-term weekly trendline formed from the low 0.8230 (23/10/2000).

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price is consolidating around a daily demand area seen at 1.1776-1.1838 (located just above the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level). Assuming that this area of demand gives way, we then feel there’s a good chance price will test a ‘mini’ daily demand area seen just below at 1.1700-1.1722.

4hr Timeframe:  At this point in time, we have absolutely no interest in selling the Euro. Our cue to begin looking for sell trades will come when/if price closes below the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level, but until that happens, our finger is staying off the sell button. Buying, on the other hand is tempting considering where price is located on the higher-timeframe picture (see above). However, buying into 4hr supply (levels above) is something we try to avoid no matter where we’re located higher up. Our team has come to a general consensus that no long trades will be executed until price consumes the 4hr supply/ round-number area at 1.1895-1.1856/1.1900. The close above 1.1900 will effectively be our cue to begin preparing to enter long on any retest offered, targeting 1.2000. The reason we believe prices can rally from 1.1900 to 1.2000 is simply because there are clear supply consumption wicks marked with green arrows at 1.1895/1.1957, which have likely cleared the path north.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Very similar to the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD also shows the buyers and sellers clashing around a large weekly demand area at 1.4812-1.5097. This area is particularly attractive since it boasts additional confluence from a long-term weekly trendline from the low 1.4225 (17/05/2010). In the event that the buyers show further interest here, we see very little stopping prices from reaching a weekly swap level coming in at 1.5270.

Daily Timeframe: The daily chart shows two buying tails forming off of a daily Quasimodo support area at 1.5007-1.5097 (located just within the aforementioned weekly demand area). As good as this sounds, price was still unable to close above Friday’s high 1.5174, which may indicate weakness within the buyer’s camp. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this.

4hr Timeframe: Technically, this pair has seen very little change. As such, our previous analysis still remains valid.

The 4hr timeframe shows that ever since the market opened at 1.5174, the buyers and sellers have been battling for position between 1.5100, and 1.5200. For any traders wishing to try their luck in between this ranging band, waiting for lower-timeframe confirmation is most certainly advised as fakeouts are common around psychological levels such as these.

We’re aware that the current fundamental bias is clearly south on the GBP at the moment, nonetheless, we simply cannot ignore the fact that the higher-timeframe technical picture is indicating buying is move favorable at the moment (see above). That being the case, we have absolutely no interest in selling the GBP for the time being. Buying on the other hand will only be considered if price closes above 1.5200. This would in effect be our cue to begin looking for retesting opportunities targeting the 4hr supply area seen above at 1.5272-1.5255 (lowest zone within a stacked supply formation).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw price break below a weekly demand area at 0.8064-0.8460 which consequently triggered buying in the market.  However, this week shows that the buyers may be in trouble as selling interest  appears to be entering the market at the underside (prior support) of a recently broken descending channel (limits can be found at 0.9556 – 21/10/13 … 0.8846 – 05/08/13). It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has recently taken out a daily supply area seen at 0.8214-0.8160, which as a result has likely cleared the path north for further buying up to a daily swap area coming in at 0.8314-0.8405. 

4hr Timeframe: Trading our methodology on the AUD/USD is quite challenging at the moment, especially with the clash of higher-timeframe signals currently being witnessed (see above).

At the time of writing, the buyers and sellers are seen trading between a 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 0.8112-0.8138, and the 0.8200 level. A break above 0.8200 could well see a rapid retest forcing the market north towards a 4hr supply area at 0.8273-0.8250. However, a break below the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area would force price into 0.8100 which could be supportive enough to allow the buyers back into play.

Therefore, with all the above taken into consideration, we feel that standing on the side lines here may be the best path to take for the time being.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price remains trading between a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18, and a major weekly swap level seen at 115.50.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action shows that price pushed below a daily swap area seen at 119.19-118.04. This may encourage further selling down towards a minor daily support level visible at 117.22. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has on offer.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the 118.00 level has been well and truly consumed. In the event that the sellers can hold the market lower here, we see very little stopping price from continuing southbound into what we like to call a ‘hot point’, which essentially means a highly confluent area.

We have set a pending buy order at 117.35 within this ‘hot point’ for the following reasons:

  1. Lower-limit support from the aforementioned descending channel.
  2. Fresh 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 116.80-117.30.
  3. 4hr Quasimodo support level at 117.43.
  4. Psychological number 117.00
  5. Trendline support from the low 113.15 – 04/11/14.
  6. Minor daily support coming in at 117.22.

Targets for the trade: 117.94/118.63/118.97 (as per the blue arrows).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 117.35 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 116.73).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that price has broken above a weekly swap level coming in at 1.1870. As a result, this could open the gates to much higher prices in the future. Let’s see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action appeared to be relatively indecisive with very little movement being seen. In the event that the buyers continue from where they left off on Monday, it is very likely prices will test a daily swap level seen at 1.2022 sometime soon.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price is presently stalling just below a huge psychological number: 1.2000 (22 pips below the aforementioned daily swap level). In the event that price falls short before reaching here and declines down to 1.1900, we’d be interested in buying with lower-timeframe confirmation around the 1.1905 mark, and targeting 1.2000. The reason why we’d require confirmation is simply because price could fake lower into a rather important ‘buy zone’ (yellow area – 1.1870/1.1840). This yellow area is extremely significant to us for the simple reason that this is where pro money likely decided to break above the aforementioned weekly swap level, meaning there could well be unfilled buyer orders present. Therefore, as long as price does not hit 1.2000, we are willing to set a pending buy order here at 1.1860, with a stop set just below at 1.1834.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.1905 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where on confirms this level) 1.1860 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.1834).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

 DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the rebound seen from the weekly decision-point demand area at 9126-9467 has recently extended higher. Assuming that the buyers continue with this tempo, we feel there’s a good chance prices will test the 10048 level sometime soon.

Daily Timeframe: The recent buying seen on the DAX has pushed prices above a major daily swap level at 9790. This move consequently forced the market to hit a minor daily swap level coming in at 9896. This minor level remains to be a key obstacle to a move towards the daily resistance zone seen at 10048-10007.

4hr Timeframe: It was reported in the previous analysis that we had no interest in trading this index until either the minor 4hr swap level at 9626, or the 4hr supply area at 9857-9812 was consumed. As we can all see, price has broken above the 4hr supply area, which in turn has likely opened the gates for prices to challenge a minor 4hr swap level at 10038 (located within the aforementioned daily resistance zone).

With the above in mind, we have absolutely no interest in selling the DAX at this point in time. We are however interested in buying around the major daily swap level at 9790 with the 10038 level in mind as a target. Lower-timeframe confirmation will be needed here since we do not see any logical areas to safely place a stop-loss order.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 9790 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: For five consecutive weeks now, price has been stalling above an ignored weekly Quasimodo level at 17135. A push below this level would likely encourage follow-through selling down towards a weekly support level coming in at 16051.

Daily Timeframe: The buyers and sellers are currently seen battling it out for position between 17896, and 17362. A break below 17362 would likely inspire further selling back down towards the aforementioned ignored weekly Quasimodo level. A break higher on the other hand would likely see the market test the overall high at 18098.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe currently shows that the DOW is trading within a relatively large triangle formation, check out the way price is compressing inwards giving the impression an explosive move is brewing.

At the time of writing, price has recently spiked (blue arrow) below a 4hr swap area seen at 17573-17518. This move has likely cleared the path south down towards a small 4hr decision-point demand area visible at 17381-17416 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 17426).  Entering long at this area of demand is something we’d only consider if we we had supporting confirmation from the lower timeframes, since price could just as easily fake lower into a larger 4hr demand area coming in at 17428-17344 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 17351), which is also somewhere we intend to watch for lower-timeframe buying confirmation if/when price reaches here.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17426 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17373) 17351 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17242).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is now trading within a weak-looking weekly supply area coming in at 1255.2-1226.1. The reason we believe this area to be weak is simply because price has already visited this area once already on the 08/12/14, consequently decreasing the chances of a reaction being seen here. What is more, notice that the first reaction did not form a lower low which tells us that that Gold’s selling pressure may be diminishing.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action saw price pierce above a daily supply area at 1238.1-1227.7 (located just within the aforementioned weekly supply area), which likely stopped out the majority of traders attempting to trade short. This move has likely cleared the path north towards a daily Quasimodo resistance level seen at 1249.4, and is in effect the last line of defense for the weekly supply area mentioned above.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price continued north towards the 4hr supply area seen at 1244.5-1240.1, as reported it may do in the previous analysis. Considering how high price was driven into this 4hr supply area, we feel that there’s a good chance most of the supply i.e. sell orders have likely been consumed. Therefore, in the event that price can hold above the minor 4hr swap level at 1222.9, we feel that there’s a good chance price can rally towards 1249.4, the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance level.

With the above taken into consideration, we have no interest selling Gold at this time. We are however interested in buying around the 1224.0 mark just above the aforementioned 4hr swap level, with a target of 1248.88 in mind. We would advise waiting for lower timeframe confirmation here though as price could just as easily ignore this level and continue trading south towards a 4hr demand area coming in at 1206.1-1210.6 (located deep within a daily demand area seen at 1204.4-1216.5).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1224.0 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).