EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe reveals that buying interest is currently being seen around a weekly Quasimodo support level at 1.1758. This should not come as a surprise really when considering that this weekly level converges so beautifully with a long-term weekly trendline formed from the low 0.8230 (23/10/2000). Nevertheless, as mentioned in the previous analysis, it’s still too difficult to tell at this point if this is indeed genuine buying interest or simply short-covering.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price is currently consolidating within and around a daily demand area seen at 1.1776-1.1838 (located just above the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level). In the event that buying interest comes into the market, we feel there’s a good chance that prices could rally higher up to 1.2041.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows the market opened at 1.1847 and traded into a 4hr supply area coming in at 1.1895-1.1856. This consequently saw the Euro decline in value down towards 1.1800; where at the time of writing moderately active buying is being displayed.

Our team has come to a general consensus that no long trades will be executed until price consumes the aforementioned area 4hr supply/ round-number (1.1900) area. The close above 1.1900 will effectively be our cue to begin preparing to enter long on any retest offered, targeting 1.2000. The reason we believe prices can rally from 1.1900 to 1.2000 is simply because there are clear supply consumption wicks marked with green arrows at 1.1895/1.1957, which have likely cleared the path north. For anyone considering selling the Euro at this point in time may want to hold fire as you could potentially be selling into higher-timeframe buying opposition (see above).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Very similar to the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is also showing signs of buying strength around a weekly demand area (1.4812-1.5097) that lines up beautifully with a weekly trendline from the low 1.4225 (17/05/2010). In the event that the buyers show further interest here, we see very little stopping prices from reaching a weekly swap level coming in at 1.5270.

Daily Timeframe: Overall, there was very little movement seen on the GBP/USD daily chart yesterday, as price continued to loiter just above a daily Quasimodo support area at 1.5007-1.5097 (located just within the aforementioned weekly demand area). Hopefully, the 4hr timeframe will have more to offer us.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that ever since the market opened at 1.5174, the buyers and sellers have been battling for position between 1.5100, and 1.5200. For any traders wishing to try their luck in between this ranging band, waiting for lower-timeframe confirmation is most certainly advised as fakeouts are common around psychological levels such as these.

We’re aware that the current fundamental bias is clearly south on the GBP at the moment, nonetheless, we simply cannot ignore the fact that the higher-timeframe technical picture is indicating that buying is move favorable at the moment (see above). That being the case, we have absolutely no interest in selling the GBP for the time being. Buying on the other hand will only be considered if price closes above 1.5200. This would likely be our cue to begin looking for retesting opportunities targeting the 4hr supply area seen above at 1.5272-1.5255 (lowest zone within a stacked supply formation).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

 AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw price break below a weekly demand area at 0.8064-0.8460 which consequently triggered buying in the market. This week however shows resistive pressure is currently being seen from a recently broken descending channel support line (limits can be found at 0.9556 – 21/10/13 … 0.8846 – 05/08/13) at the moment. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action saw price take out a daily supply area seen at 0.8214-0.8160, which as a result has likely cleared the path north for further buying up to a daily swap area coming in at 0.8314-0.8405.  Therefore, we have the weekly timeframe indicating shorts, and the daily currently promoting longs. Hopefully the 4hr timeframe can offer us something a little more tradable.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the market opened at 0.8207 and climbed towards a 4hr supply area coming in at 0.8273-0.8250. From here, an aggressive sell off was seen down to a 4hr decision-point demand area at 0.8112-0.8138.

After looking at the 4hr timeframe in detail, buying or selling this pair is quite difficult at this time especially with the clash of higher-timeframe signals. When we see contradictory signs such as we are here, we keep positions small, and only enter using lower-timeframe confirmation. With that being said, there may well be a long setup forming now around a 4hr decision-point demand area at 0.8112-0.8138 at the moment, lower-timeframe confirmation is a must here, and the target for this trade will be small, set just below the 0.8200 level at 0.8197.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Currently watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around a 4hr decision-point demand area at 0.8112-0.8138 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: depends on where one confirms this area).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: From a technical perspective, the weekly timeframe shows very little change. Price remains trading between a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18, and a major weekly swap level seen at 115.50.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers continue to battle for position between daily swap area coming in at 119.19-118.04, and a small daily supply area seen above at 120.63-119.88 (lowest zone within a stacked supply formation).

4hr Timeframe: With both the weekly and daily timeframe not offering us much in the way of direction at the moment, here’s how we see this pair playing out today, and possibly into tomorrow (same as the previous analysis). We’re expecting to see some buying pressure from the 118.00 handle, however, with (what we like to call) a ‘hot point’ (essentially meaning a highly confluent area see 1-5)) lurking just below, we feel there’s a good chance that 118.00 will eventually be consumed and price will trade lower. 

We have set a pending buy order at 117.35 within this ‘hot point’ for the following reasons:

  1. Lower-limit support from the aforementioned descending channel.
  2. Fresh 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 116.80-117.30.
  3. 4hr Quasimodo support level at 117.43.
  4. Psychological number 117.00
  5. Trendline support from the low 113.15 – 04/11/14.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 117.35 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 116.73).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that price has broken above a weekly swap level coming in at 1.1870. As a result, this could open the gates to much higher prices in the future. Let’s see what the lower timeframes have on offer.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw a full-bodied bullish candle form on the break of the aforementioned weekly swap level; this confirms that that path north is likely clear for price to test a daily swap level seen above at 1.2022.

4hr Timeframe:  The 4hr minor swap level at 1.1840 was clearly strong enough to hold the market higher as price rocketed north above both the aforementioned weekly swap level and the 1.1900 handle. This minor 4hr swap level is essentially where we believe the overall decision was made by pro money to take the USD/CAD to fresh highs, meaning this area holds significance to us – pro money activity = potential unfilled buy/sell orders.

As per the 4hr timeframe, price is seen edging closer to the huge psychological level 1.2000. In the event price falls short before reaching here, and declines down to 1.1900, we’d be very interested in buying around the 1.1905 mark using lower-timeframe confirmation, and targeting 1.2000, which if you remember is only 22 pips below the aforementioned daily swap level. The reason why we’d require confirmation is simply because price could continue lower to origin of the recent leg north – 1.1840, which in fact is also an interesting buy zone to watch for in the future.

4hr

 Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.1905 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where on confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

 DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows the DAX defended a weekly decision-point demand area seen at 9126-9467 for the second time in four weeks. Assuming that this area of demand holds, we feel that there’s a good chance price may attack the 10048 level once more either this week or the next.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price is currently stalling around a major daily swap level coming in at 9790. A push above this level would likely see price invade a near-term minor daily swap level at 9896, which is in fact all that’s stopping the DAX from reaching 10048.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr price action shows price is currently in a consolidative phase trading between a 4hr supply area seen at 9857-9812, and a minor 4hr swap level visible at 9626. That being the case, we have absolutely no interest in buying or selling this index until at least until one of the above areas are consumed.

For anyone who wishes to trade this current 4hr range, we would strongly advise only trading the extreme limits, and enter only when you can see corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation before risking any money, since there’s nothing worse than price stopping you out on a fakeout and then to hit your target.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows a nice-looking buying tail formed last week from the low 17248, seen just above the ignored weekly Quasimodo support level at 17135. Does this mean we should expect the DOW to advance to fresh highs in the not so distant future?

Daily Timeframe: With regards to prices advancing to fresh highs, the daily timeframe shows that prices will not see a continuation move north until both 17896, and 17988 are cleared of all supply/selling opposition.

4hr Timeframe: With very little direction being shown on the higher-timeframe picture, we have opted to play on the side of caution here and only trade areas which display lower-timeframe confirmation, and reasonably close profit targets.

At the time of writing, the DOW is seen trading within a triangle formation, check out the way price is compressing inwards giving the impression an explosive move is on the horizon. At the time of writing price is seen rebounding off of a 4hr swap area at 17573-17518. Trading long here is valid in our opinion, as long as you see corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation. Near-term targets for this trade are 17701 and 17739.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around the 4hr swap area at 17573-17518 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17512).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is now trading within a weak-looking weekly supply area coming in at 1255.2-1226.1. The reason we believe this area to be weak is simply because price has already visited this area once already on the 08/12/14, consequently decreasing the chances of a reaction being seen here. What is more, notice that the first reaction did not form a fresh lower low which tells us that that Gold’s selling pressure may be diminishing.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday shows that an accelerated move north was seen into a daily supply area coming in at 1238.1-1227.7. A break above here will likely force Gold deeper into the aforementioned weekly supply area towards a small daily Quasimodo resistance level seen at 1249.4.

4hr Timeframe: For those who follow our analysis on a regular basis, you may recall us mentioning that if price broke above 1222.9, we’d look to trade any retest that was offered. As we can all see a retest (albeit a deeper one than was expected) was indeed seen. Unfortunately though, we could not find any confirming price action to take advantage of this move north.

Assuming price does continue to trade north and visits the aforementioned 4hr supply area, this will potentially consume the current daily supply area mentioned above at 1238.1-1227.7 (seen just below 4hr supply), in which case we would be effectively begin to expect further buying to be seen (as per the daily timeframe analysis) However, buying into 4hr supply is something we try to avoid, so opting to stand on the side lines for the time being may be the best path to take at least until more conducive price action is seen.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).