EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price has breached a major weekly demand area seen at 1.1875-1.2095. Assuming that the majority of buyers are now consumed here, this would likely force the market south towards a weekly Quasimodo support level coming in at 1.1758.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s action also saw price break below a daily demand area at 1.1875-1.1971, which should not come as much of a surprise considering it’s located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area.  This Move could potentially open the gates for prices to challenge a partially consumed daily demand area lurking just below at 1.1776-1.1838.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the Euro opened (1.1954) 44 pips lower that Friday’s close (1.1998) which subsequently saw further selling down to 1.1900 , where at which point active buyers were seen entering the market.

In the event that the buyers can hold prices above this level, further buying will likely be seen up to 1.2000 (a figure watched by many),which as a result will effectively fill the weekend gap, and potentially see the buyers and sellers vigorously battle for position around this huge number .

On top of that, we mustn’t forget that price is still trading within higher-timeframe demand (see above) at the moment, so naturally long positions are currently favored. Providing that lower-timeframe buying confirmation is seen around 1.1900, we would be relatively comfortable entering long here, and attempting to target 1.1994, just below 1.2000, and potentially the 4hr decision-point supply area seen just above at 1.2068-1.2045 given enough time.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Currently watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 1.1900 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on where one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the GBP/USD pair has been forced to trade just below a major weekly swap level seen at 1.5270. As a consequence, this has seen the buyers and sellers battling for position around a long-term weekly trendline support barrier (1.3500 – 19/01/2009).

Daily Timeframe:  Yesterday saw the market decline in value down towards a partially consumed daily demand area at 1.5101-1.5206, as reported may happen in the previous analysis. Trading long from here is a valid strategy in our opinion, since this area is located just below the aforementioned weekly trend line, providing a solid base in which to allow buyers to enter the market. However, for us, lower-timeframe confirmation would be required here since price spiked (blue arrow) this area of demand on the 07/08/13 at 1.5204, which as a result could’ve weakened the buying strength here.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that aggressive selling was seen around the open (1.5301) down towards 1.5200, where at which point strong buying interest entered the market. After a little indecision seen by both the buyers and sellers, price sold off back down towards 1.5200 where once again buying activity is currently being seen.

Taking into consideration where price is located on the higher timeframes at the moment (see above), our bias is firmly long the GBP, and as such we believe a move higher is favorable.

Entering long either around  the 1.5200 handle or just below at a 4hr Quasimodo support area seen at 1.5101-1.5150 (located very deep within the aforementioned daily demand area) both seem legitimate buying areas. And as such, a pending buy order has been set at 1.5155 (just above the Quasimodo support area), with a stop set just below at 1.5096. Setting a pending buy order however at 1.5200 is something we would not be comfortable doing due to the deep spike seen at the open. Waiting for lower-timeframe confirmation around this region is likely the safest path to take at the moment.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:
  • Buy orders: 1.5155 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.5906) we’re also watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 1.5200 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe reveals that price has recently pushed below a major weekly demand area at 0.8064-0.8460, which consequently could entice further selling down towards another weekly demand area coming in at 0.7699-0.7974.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading sessions saw moderate buying interest off of a daily demand area seen at 0.7958-0.8070 (sits on top of the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.7699-0.7974). Assuming that the buyers can hold out here, this could provide a solid base in which pro money may use to push prices higher. If this does occur, we then feel that the break below the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.8064-0.8460 could very well be a fakeout to push the Aussie higher. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price is currently nibbling at the 0.8100 resistance, effectively testing for selling strength after the full-bodied bearish close seen just before the market closed. In the event that the sellers manage to keep the market lower here, we see very little stopping price from charging south towards the huge psychological level 0.8000. On the other hand, a break above would likely see renewed buying interest up to the 0.8200 region, which in our opinion is the more likely to happen since price is still essentially trading around reasonable-looking demand on the higher timeframes (see above) at the moment.

Taking the above into consideration, we’ve opted to remain flat until more favorable price action is seen.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:
  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair has seen very little change over the past two weeks. And as such, buyers and sellers remain trading between a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18 and a major weekly swap level at 115.50.

Daily Timeframe: At the time of writing, the daily timeframe shows that price is confined between a daily swap area coming in at 119.19-118.04 and a daily supply area at 121.83-120.66, which was actually a reaction to a longer-term daily supply area seen above at 122.61-121.54 (this area encapsulates the weekly Quasimodo resistance level mentioned above at 121.18).

4hr Timeframe: The USD, as you can see has recently sold off, breaching the 120.00 handle and trading into minor 4hr demand at 119.28-119.61. Risk/reward limitations restrict us from entering long here with potential resistance (which was prior support) looming just above at 120.00. In the event that further selling ensues from here and price visits a 4hr demand area seen just below at 118.83-119.07, there could be a nice opportunity to enter long using lower-timeframe confirmation around the 119.12 mark, since this area is located within the daily swap area mentioned above at 119.19-118.04. The reasoning behind us requiring lower-timeframe confirmation here is simply because of that large spike/tail seen on the 30/12/14. This move could have potentially consumed most of the buyers here, and thus decreased the chances of a reaction being seen.

With the above taken into consideration, we’ve decided to remain flat for the time being until more conducive price action is seen.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 119.12 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.78).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: A major weekly supply area at 1.1806-1.1473 has recently been breached, which has likely cleared the path north towards a major weekly swap level lurking just above at 1.1893. Nonetheless, let’s see what the lower timeframes have to say before we get too ahead of ourselves here.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw the daily timeframe print an obvious selling wick (bearish pin bar) around the 1.1800 barrier. This level has more than proven itself over time. Assuming that further selling does indeed ensue from here, we could very likely see prices drop down as far as the daily decision-point demand area coming in at 1.1563-1.1612.

4hr Timeframe: It was reported in the previous analysis that we believed the 1.1800 region to be a critical juncture on the Loonie. We also stated that we’re not interested in buying unless a break above and retest of this level was seen. Selling here on the other hand was something we planned for in advance, and already decided that this level would require selling confirmation from the lower timeframes before considering a trade.

As we can all see, active selling was indeed seen around 1.1800. We managed to nail a confirmed short yesterday, getting filled at 1.18034 on the 30 minute timeframe around 11.30 am GMT time. We intend to try and ride this out down to at least 1.1700, and potentially 1.1600 (located just within the daily decision-point demand area mentioned above at 1.1563-1.1612) given enough time, and patience.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.18034 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: currently set at breakeven).

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that relatively aggressive selling has seen the DAX decline in value down towards a weekly decision-point demand area visible at 9126-9467.

Daily Timeframe: It was reported in the previous analysis that we believed the daily close below 9790 seen on Friday would likely suggest a more bearish bias coming into the week. Admittedly though, we did not expect price to sell off quite so much, and certainly not with this velocity. This move consequently leaves the daily demand area at 9126-9233 clearly in the limelight, as this will likely be where shorts (sellers) are targeting.

4hr Timeframe: The recent momentum south has seen the buyers who attempted to enter long from the 4hr swap area at 9719-9671 well and truly consumed, which as a result saw the market continue south towards a very fresh-looking 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 9424-9487.

There is clear potential to the upside from here in our opinion, which is why we’re intending to watch the lower-timeframe price action like a hawk around the open. Reasons for considering longs are as follows:

  • Fresh 4hr demand (see above).
  • The weekly timeframe shows price is now teasing a weekly decision-point demand area (see above) at the moment.
  • Trendline confluence (16/10/14 – 8351).

The reason why we’re not entering here with a pending buy order is simply because price could just as easily ignore this 4hr area and head for the more attractive higher-timeframe daily demand area seen below at 9126-9233 (see daily analysis for details).

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Watching lower-timeframe price action for confirmation around the 9424-9487 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 9410).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the two-bar reversal pattern seems to be working out for the time being as sellers are seen pushing the market southbound. Providing that the sellers continue with this tempo, we see very little stopping the DOW from hitting the ignored weekly Quasimodo level coming in at 17135.

Daily Timeframe: It was reported in the previous analysis that traders should be cautious regarding selling the weekly two-bar pattern, as we saw price had effectively traded into daily support seen at 17717. However, with the strong selling momentum currently being seen, and price now clear of any near-term support, we feel there’s a good chance that the daily swap level seen at 17362 will be seeing some action very soon.

4hr Timeframe: Temporary support on the 4hr timeframe appears to be forming around the 17500 region. Ultimately though, we do not expect this to hold for very long as further selling is expected down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 17326-17381, which if you look to the left of current price, you’ll see that this area is beautifully located around the daily swap level mentioned above at 17362.

We still have a pending buy order set at 17392 just above the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area, as we believe a bounce at the very least will be seen from here. In the event however that this area is breached, increased selling interest will likely be seen down towards the ignored weekly Quasimodo level mentioned above at 17135.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17392 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17320).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

XAU/USD (Gold):

The way we’re currently viewing Gold at the moment shows there’s very little meaningful movement being seen. As a consequence of this, much of our previous analysis still remains valid.

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that very little movement was seen in the Gold markets over the past couple of weeks, which has consequently seen price contained between a weekly supply area seen at 1255.2-1226.1, and a weekly decision-point demand level coming in at 1136.3.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that recent price action has been oscillating around a major daily swap level at 1182.0 for the past week and a half. Our team has come to a general consensus that Gold can move either way this week. A rally higher towards a daily supply area at 1238.1-1227.7 (seen within weekly supply at 1255.2-1226.1) is very possible, while a move lower is also feasible down towards daily support coming in at 1149.4 (lurking just above the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand level).

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that even with the recent buying seen on Gold, price remains effectively range bound between 1211.3/1172.8. A break above (upper blue circle) could well see a prompt retest forcing the market north towards a 4hr supply area at 1244.5-1240.1. The reason we believe price can move thus high is simply because we believe that there is very little active supply left between 1212.1 and this 4hr supply area (depicted using a green arc pattern). Shorting from this 4hr supply area in our opinion is valid, but do remain vigilant to the possibility that this area may see a fakeout up to a daily Quasimodo resistance level looming just above at 1249.4 (see the daily chart). Therefore, with this in mind, we are forced to only consider shorts (1239.5) with corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation.

However, In the event that selling interest enters the market sometime this week, and a break below the range is seen (lower blue circle), we feel that this will likely entice further selling down towards a nice-looking 4hr demand area coming in at 1142.6-1152.0 (encapsulates the daily support level mentioned above at 1149.4). Considering that this 4hr area has favorable higher-timeframe confluence, and also saw fantastic momentum north when the zone was initially formed, we are comfortable setting a pending buy order just above at 1152.8, with a stop-loss order placed just below the zone at 1141.8.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1152.8 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1141.8).
  • Sell orders: 1239.5 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1245.4).