EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the market close below a weekly Quasimodo support area at 1.22403-1.22942. Assuming that this move took out the majority of sellers here, we could potentially see further selling down to a partially consumed weekly demand area coming in at 1.18754-1.20958 given enough time. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand shows that just below the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support area, the buyers and sellers are currently battling for position within a long-term daily demand area seen at 1.21326-1.22234.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the Euro sold off recently, and as a result consumed several support barriers along the way. At the time of writing, price is currently trading around the upper limits of a partially consumed 4hr demand area coming in at 1.21180-1.21609 (located relatively deep within the daily demand area at 1.21326-1.22234). This area of 4hr demand is effectively the last line of defense for the aforementioned daily demand area, since a break below here would likely open the gates for the market to challenge a 4hr Quasimodo support area seen at 1.20461-1.20724 (located within the partially consumed weekly demand area mentioned above at 1.18754-1.20958).

Christmas Eve is notoriously a slow trading day, and as such, we will only be attempting to scalp for small moves if/when the market allows. With this in mind, we would consider buying with lower-timeframe confirmation off the aforementioned 4hr demand area around the 1.21644 mark. Our overall take-profit target for this trade will be set a little below the round-number level 1.22 at 1.21978.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.21644 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The GBP/USD is still seen trading between a nice-looking weekly demand area at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly swap level coming in at 1.57166. A break above may see the buyers push higher towards 1.58934, another weekly swap level. And conversely, a break lower would likely attract further selling down towards a major weekly swap level at 1.52700.

Daily Timeframe: Since the 08/12/14, the pound has been sandwiched between the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1.57166, and a daily demand area seen at 1.54260-1.55378 (located very deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area). Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.

4hr Timeframe: Similar to the Euro, the GBP/USD has also recently sold off. This move consequently consumed a 4hr support area coming in at 1.55402-1.55627, which in turn forced the market further south towards a ‘hot point’ (essentially what we mean here is an area of confluence) comprising of the following: descending channel support –  limits can be found at: 1.56150 (14/11/14) 1.58247 (27/11/14), round-number 1.55 and a 4hr demand area seen at 1.54614-1.54903 (located relatively deep within both the aforementioned weekly, and daily demand areas).

Given the points made above, we will begin looking for confirmed entries to scalp long around 1.55 on the lower timeframes, and aim to take full profits around 1.55375, just below the recently consumed area of 4hr support at 1.55402-1.55627.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.55 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.54821).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The Aussie Dollar continues to receive punishment as the U.S Dollar forces the market deeper into a major weekly demand area at 0.80646-0.84601. A break below this area may promote further selling down towards another weekly demand area seen at 0.76999-0.79740. Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price is currently trading just above a partially consumed daily demand area coming in at 0.79589-0.80709 (sits on top of the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.76999-0.79740). In the event that price reaches this area, and buying strength is seen, we see very little stopping price from rallying all the way up to a daily swap area coming in at 0.83147-0.84053.

4hr Timeframe: Unfortunately, our historical data feed does not go back far enough to allow us to see how the 4hr price action behaved in the past, so we’ll just work with what we have for now. The 0.81 level is currently seeing some selling pressure and appears to be very weak. A close below here in our opinion would likely suggest further selling down towards the round-number 0.8, which is seen deep within the aforementioned daily demand area – a perfect area to look for buying opportunities.

With regards to this pair and its recent movements, there is little that interests here us for the time being, and as such, opting to stand on the side lines here may be the best path to take until the New Year.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the rebound seen last week from the weekly swap level (115.503) is currently extending higher. Assuming that the buyers do not lose steam here, we can likely expect prices to test a weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.180 sometime soon.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers are currently battling for position just within a daily supply area coming in at 121.838-120.668. Be that as it may, selling here is a little too risky for us given that the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level (encapsulated by a daily supply area at 122.610-121.540) is lurking just above this area of supply, and as such this area may very well see a fakeout.

4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that there was likely going to be an opportunity to buy the retest of 120 if price closed above this level. As we can all see, price did indeed close higher but unfortunately no retest was seen.

At the time of writing, price is currently trading within a 4hr supply area seen at 120.992-120.668 (located just within the daily supply area mentioned above at 121.838-120.668). Selling from here down to 120 is a valid strategy; we would however recommend waiting for some confirmation here on the lower timeframes beforehand though (reason stated above in bold [daily timeframe section]). Nevertheless, for us, as already mentioned, trading from here is a little too risky from where we’re standing.

Given the points made above, and considering it is Christmas Eve (low volume expected), we have decided it’s best to remain flat until the New Year trading begins.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The rebound seen from the weekly decision-point demand area last week at 9126-9467 is currently attempting to extend higher. Assuming that the buyers remain confident here, we could potentially see prices hit the 10048 mark sometime soon.

Daily Timeframe: Very little activity was seen yesterday as price continued to dance around 9896, a daily swap level. We’re also not expecting to see much trading activity today with it being Christmas Eve, and also Germany on vacation. That being said though, it would be fantastic if we could see just a little more effort from the buyers today, since this will likely give investors (and us) confidence that prices will likely see further buying up to a daily resistance zone at 10048-10007 sometime soon.

4hr Timeframe: As already mentioned above, very little activity was seen on the DAX yesterday, and as such most of our previous analysis still remains valid.

It was reported previously that we believed most of the sell orders around the 4hr supply at 9906-9809 had already likely been consumed by the wick seen marked with a red arrow at 9919. We also mentioned that if the buyers were able to hold price above 9790, which they have, we then felt there was a good chance that the index will see an increase in value up to a small 4hr supply area coming in at 10094-10068 (seen just above the daily resistance zone at 10048-10007).

At this point in time, we do not see any safe entries long to take advantage of this potential move higher. And with the trading volume expected to diminish exponentially over the Christmas week, we have opted to remain flat until the New Year.

4HR

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The rebound seen off the ignored weekly Quasimodo level last week at 17135 has at the time of writing extended above the high 17988. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the Quasimodo resistance level seen at 17893 has been well and truly consumed as yesterday saw price advance to a fresh high of 18057. This is definitely a level to keep your eye on in the future since ignored Quasimodo levels often see a bounce on return at the very least.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price is currently hesitating above the 18000 mark at the moment. In the event that the bulls run out of steam here, which we believe is likely, a decline in value will possibly follow down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 17935-17967. This area remains very important to us, since this is likely where well-funded traders potentially made the ‘decision’ to break the 17988 high, which means there are possibly unfilled buy orders still lurking around this area.

With the above taken into consideration, we believe it is worth keeping an eye on the DOW today, as there may be a chance to scalp long (with lower-timeframe confirmation) around the 17975 mark, just above the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area. Assuming that the above does happen, all trades taken here will have small targets and be carefully monitored.

4HR

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17975 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe: The rebound seen from the weekly supply area last week at 1255.20-1226.18 is at the time of writing currently extending lower. Assuming that further selling is seen from here, we see very little stopping prices from hitting 1136.30, a weekly decision-point demand level. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: Monday saw price aggressively sell off, which as a result saw Gold significantly close below 1182.01, a major daily swap level. Yesterday however saw the market successfully retest this level as resistance.

4hr Timeframe: It was reported in the previous analysis that we were intending to watch price action around the aforementioned major daily swap level to see if there were any confirmed selling opportunities on the lower timeframes.

We managed to short two 15-minute pin bar candles yesterday; the first was a loss at 04.45 am GMT time (1182.74). The second was a winner taken a little higher up at 07:30am GMT time, our fill was a little late however at 1181.38, and we closed most of our position already around 1174.60. We intend to let the rest run for the remainder of today, with our stop loss firmly set at breakeven.

With volume expected to be low during Christmas, we have decided that today will be our last day trading Gold until the New Year.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1181.38 [Live – small position left running] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1184.96).