EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Current price action remains trading just below a minor weekly swap level coming in at 1.24996. Assuming that sellers come into the market here, a decline in value back towards the weekly Quasimodo support area seen at 1.22403-1.22942 may be on the cards. Alternatively, a break above here would likely force the market to test 1.25816, a major weekly swap level.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that active sellers were seen yesterday within a daily supply area at 1.25056-1.24180 (located just below the aforementioned minor weekly swap level). A break above this area could entice further buying up towards a partially consumed daily supply area at 1.26386-1.25459, which incidentally encapsulates the major weekly swap level mentioned above at 1.25816.

4hr Timeframe: The EUR/USD opened 15 pips higher than Friday’s close (1.24594) at 1.24746, and has in our opinion not moved much since the previous analysis. As such, most of what was mentioned yesterday remains the same.

Buyers and sellers are currently seen ranging between a minor 4hr resistance level at 1.24892, and a 4hr demand area coming in at 1.23610-1.23918. Buying within this range may work for a bounce/scalp trade. However, it is selling we’re interested in at the moment since let’s not forget where we are located in the bigger picture (Weekly resistance/Daily supply – see above). Selling here with a pending order is still considered too risky for us; waiting for lower-timeframe selling confirmation around 1.24847 would for us be the best path to take as a fakeout above to 1.25 is very possible.

With that being said, in the event a close above 1.25 is seen, this will likely force the market up to a smashing-looking 4hr supply area seen at 1.25671-1.25336, located within daily supply at 1.26386-1.25459. This could be a nice place to look for shorts if/when price reaches here. On the other hand, if the sellers make a dive for the aforementioned 4hr demand area from where price Is currently trading at, and break below it, this could potentially force the market back down to the weekly Quasimodo support area mentioned above at 1.22403-1.22942, as this is (as we see it) the only barrier of defense the Euro has that could stop a decline such as this from happening. Hopefully, with today’s expected volatility, the market will give us more to discuss tomorrow.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.24847 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.25108).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: After a promising round of buying seen from a nice-looking weekly demand area at 1.54260-1.56110 last week, it appears that the sellers are not in agreement, as relatively aggressive selling from a weekly swap level at 1.57166 has forced the market back down to where price came from – the weekly demand area.

Daily Timeframe:  From where we’re standing the GBP/USD shows very little demand down until 1.54260-1.55378, which is located relatively deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to offer.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the recent momentum south has pushed the market down towards 1.56, where a rebound was seen. This level has good history – just take a look to the left, the pound clearly likes this area.

Let’s just recap here, just so that we’re all on the same page. The weekly timeframe is confined between 1.54260-1.56110 and 1.57166, while the daily timeframe indicates there is potentially room to the downside yet. If more selling is indeed seen, we feel there is a good chance that prices will react either off of a long-term 4hr swap level seen at 1.55737, or around a small 4hr demand area just below at 1.55402-1.55627 (located just above the aforementioned daily demand area). We favor the latter, as let’s not forget that we would then be essentially trading relatively deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area as well

Given the points above, we have set a pending buy order at 1.55684, with a stop-loss order just below at 1.55315.

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.55684 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.55315).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

4hr

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: As already mentioned in the previous analysis, price has closed below and retested a long-term channel support (now resistance) seen deep within a major weekly demand area at 0.80646-0.84601. This – in our opinion is not a good sign for anyone long the Aussie at the moment.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers are still seen battling for position around a daily demand area seen at 0.80809-0.82270. Taking into consideration what the weekly-timeframe analysis shows, it would appear that a further decline could be seen. The only way to find out if the buyers here are indeed legit and not just traders short covering would be a follow-through to the upside, preferably above the high 0.83749.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe clearly shows that the market presently likes the 0.82 level. However, considering what we are seeing on the higher timeframes at the moment, buying off of this level would require some sort of confirmation.

Looking on the 15 minute timeframe, it shows that this level has been confirmed (for us anyway) already. Notice that price rallied and consumed supply at 0.82260-0.82194 which could have cleared the path north towards at least 0.82459-0.82394.  We are watching for price to correct itself down towards a 15 minute Quasimodo support area at 0.82002-0.82045, where at which point we’d consider entering long at 0.82055 with half of our normal position size as we cannot ignore what the higher-timeframe picture is telling us, therefore we’re playing on the side of caution here.

EDIT: it seems during editing, price just missed our buy order by a fraction of a pip!!!

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.82055 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.81970).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: After seven consecutive weeks of relentless buying, the USD/JPY pair finally saw some selling interest last week from just below a weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.180. This move has consequently forced prices down towards a weekly swap area coming in at 117.931-116.799.  This week shows that further selling is being seen at the moment, how long this will last is anyone’s guess, but with a jam-packed session of news today, this market will no doubt see some interesting movements. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: Active selling was seen all day yesterday pushing price into a small daily demand area at 117.225-117.873 (located within the aforementioned weekly swap area) making it the third time this area has been visited. Assuming that this area is consumed, we could potentially wave goodbye to the aforementioned weekly swap area, as this would likely attract further selling down towards a major daily swap level coming in at 115.503.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who follows our analysis on a regular basis, you may recall us mentioning that we entered into a buy position late on Friday at 118.240; where we were unfortunately stopped out an hour or so after the open.

As already mentioned above, both the weekly and daily timeframes shows price is in demand at the moment, and as such, we are for the time being more biased to the long side. Here is what we see on the 4hr timeframe at the moment: price has recently sold off, pushing below 118; this could result in further selling down towards 117.344, a 4hr Quasimodo support level. Entering long around 117.368 is something we’d consider with lower-timeframe confirmation since the 118 level is looming just above like a big-black rain cloud. This is in our opinion the last line of defense for both the higher-timeframe demand areas (levels above). A close below here could potentially clear the path down to a 4hr demand area coming in at 116.326-116.784. We will be setting a pending buy order here around 116.844, as this area will likely see a bounce at the very least – reasons why can be seen on the chart.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 117.368 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 117.153) 116.844 Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 116.222).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: Further buying strength is being seen on the USD/CAD pair, as we watch the bulls claw their way higher into a weekly supply area seen at 1.17225-1.15417 (located within a larger weekly supply area seen at 1.18061-1.14739). It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that yesterday was clearly one for the buyers, as they used the channel resistance (now support) to spring board themselves up towards a daily supply area coming in at 1.17225-1.16182 (located deep within the weekly supply area mentioned above at 1.17225-1.15417).

4hr Timeframe: The recent buying seen on this pair is impressive to say the least and we would love nothing more than to jump on board. However, as most are already aware, both the weekly and daily timeframes are showing heavy supply at the moment (see above), and this is not something we would like to risk our money on buying into.

In the event that price continues to rally higher, we would be interested in selling around 1.16960, just below 117. Setting a pending sell order here would be too risky for us; we’d require some sort of confirmation from the lower timeframes before since round-number levels usually suffer deep tests/spikes. First take-profit target for this trade would be set just above 1.16, saying that though, we would also be watching price like a hawk for any sign of selling weakness around the channel support (prior resistance), as shown by the red arrows.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.16960 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on where one confirms the level).

 

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week showed that the sellers really took control of this market, with the buyers showing little to no interest. Follow-through selling has already been seen this week, consequently forcing prices to trade within a weekly decision-point demand area seen at 9126-9467. Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the daily decision-point demand area at 9381-9524 has been well and truly consumed. As a result of this, we believe the path south is now likely clear down to a daily demand area coming in at 9126-9233 (seen very deep within the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand area).

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price absolutely obliterated our pending buy order set at 9440 that was set just above the 4hr demand area at 9381-9431, which is now a 4hr swap area.

This is how we see the DAX trading today and even possibly into tomorrow. A clear path south is seen down towards a minor 4hr swap level coming in at 9139. This level on its own would not really mean much to us. Nevertheless, we know from our higher-timeframe analysis that this level is surrounded by a beautiful-looking daily demand area mentioned above at 9126-9233, which is also seen within a much larger weekly decision-point demand area (see above) making this 4hr swap level rather attractive now. With this in mind, we’re expecting further selling to be seen before a rally higher can take place. As per the red arrows, we’re looking to short the retest around 9375, just below the 4hr swap area at 9381-9431. We would advise waiting for some sort of confirmation here before selling this area though, as the market could effectively continue north from here if it so wished. Assuming for a minute that it doesn’t, and price drops south, we’d consider exiting shorts around the aforementioned 4hr swap level, and entering long at 9169 mark using a pending buy order with our stop set at 9110.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 9169 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 9110).
  • Sell orders: 9375 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 9443).

 

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the sellers have brought price south down towards an ignored weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 17135. Ignored Quasimodo levels such as these tend to see nice reactions upon return.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that a reaction has already been seen off of the ignored weekly Quasimodo level (levels above) yesterday, but consequently found the17362 daily level to be resistive enough to form a bearish close. This move could have potentially cleared out the sellers around this level for a move higher. However, a little below this area lurks a daily decision-point demand area coming in at 16895-16997, which could provide pro money a nice area to fake into before a move north takes places. Let’s see what we can find on the 4hr timeframe.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe actually shows that price hit the 17362 daily level before trading down towards the ignored Quasimodo level (levels above). Providing that we have corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation, we would contemplate entering long at this level. The reason for needing confirmation is simply because (as already explained above) there is a chance that pro money may fake below the weekly Quasimodo level into the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area. However, on the 4hr timeframe we have the privilege of being able to see the price structure within this daily area, and as such, we see a nice-looking 4hr demand area coming in at 16905-16953 (located within the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area) which would provide pro money a deeper area to fake into, and somewhere we would definitely be interested in trading at if/when price reaches here.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Currently watching price action around the ignored weekly Quasimodo level at 17135 for an entry long (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly supply seen at 1255.20-1226.18 seems to be proving itself as the sellers are currently seen driving price south. Assuming that the sellers keep up with this enthusiasm, it is likely we may see another test of 1136.30, a weekly decision-point demand level.

Daily Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that after the daily decision-point supply area at 1235.51-1222.37 was consumed; we felt that the path north was relatively clear up to a daily Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 1249.45 (seen very deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area), which still remains to be the case. Recent trading action has seen Gold market slammed down into a daily decision-point demand area at 1185.97-1203.20, which is exactly where we intend to begin looking for buying opportunities.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that buying Gold now off a 4hr Quasimodo support level at 1191.81 may not be the best path to take, as risk/reward considerations argue against entering long when prices are so close to a 4hr swap area seen at 1199.48-1205.02.

For us to even consider entering long around here, the buyers would have to prove there is strength here by consuming some or most of the sellers within the aforementioned 4hr swap area, then retrace back down towards the 4hr Quasimodo support level, where we’d watch for price to fake below the low 1190.57. From there we would attempt to ride the train north up to 1235.40, as per the red arrows.

4hr

Current buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).