EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, buying interest is currently being seen within a major weekly Quasimodo support area coming in at 1.22403-1.22942. In the event that further buying is seen from here, we can likely expect prices to test 1.24996, a minor weekly swap level.

Daily Timeframe: As expected, a push below the daily demand area at 1.22877-1.23809 was seen. That being said though, we thought prices would’ve hit the long-term daily demand area at 1.21326-1.22234 (seen just below the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support area) before higher prices were seen. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe shows.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that a few hours after the market opened (1.22867), a sell off was seen. This move spiked below a 4hr demand area coming in at 1.22547-1.22832, which very likely triggered a large number of sell stops in the process. Pro money buyers took full advantage of this liquidity offering (sell stops for their buys), and bought price up to 1.23.

With the Euro currently seen in weekly demand at the moment (see above), we are very interested in buying this market. However, we would not consider placing any orders until the psychological number 1.23 is broken and retested as support. The profit potential from there is quite attractive as our first take-profit target would be set at 1.23633, just below a 4hr supply area coming in at 1.23918-1.23678 (as per the blue arrows).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The GBP/USD pair remains confined between a weekly demand area seen at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly swap level coming in at 1.57166. A break above would likely force prices to test 1.58934. Conversely, a break lower would likely encourage follow-through selling down towards a weekly support level seen at 1.52700.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that during yesterday’s trading sessions, a daily decision-point demand area at 1.55602-1.56802 seen within the aforementioned weekly demand area was breached. This move has consequently seen buying interest enter the market, but with the 1.57166 weekly swap level looming above like a big- black cloud, we are expecting some resistance to be seen here.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the market opened around 14 pips lower than Friday’s close (1.55822) at 1.55678, which in turn likely consumed a bucket-load of traders’ stops around a long-term 4hr swap level seen at 1.55737. The British pound has been bought rather aggressively over the last few hours, and as a result the 1.56 level has been consumed.

We are going to be watching this pair closely over the next few candles, as we feel there’s a good chance that a correction may be seen down to 1.56, where we’d look to enter long with lower-timeframe confirmation around the 1.56054 mark. First take-profit target for the trade would be around 1.56721. A break above there however could lead to the buyers attacking 1.57, which we believe to be weak as most of the supply appears to have already been consumed – check out the supply consumption wicks seen at 1.56942/1.57247. Be that as it may, around the 1.57 hurdle lurks the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1.57166, so any buy trades would need carefully monitoring around this area.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.56054 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: We would be inclined to place our stops below 1.55737).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week was clearly one for the sellers as prices were driven deep into a major weekly demand area coming in at 0.80646-0.84601. With that being said, price is now seen rebounding off of a long-term downtrend channel support (0.97569/0.88468), which could help facilitate a bounce/reversal. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the market broke below a daily demand area coming in at 0.83147-0.84336, and traded directly into a long-term daily swap level seen at 0.82625 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area), which lines up nicely with the weekly channel support. This could be a fantastic area to look for buying opportunities on the lower timeframes. Nevertheless, at the same time we need to be prepared for the market to fake below this level into a daily demand area seen at 0.80809-0.82270.

4hr Timeframe: Unfortunately we do not have enough historical data to see what the 4hr timeframe price action is like in the past, so we’ll work with what we have for now. We can clearly see that prices broke below a medium-term channel just before the market closed for the week. This consequently attracted further selling a few hours after the market opened (0.83046) resulting in the 0.83 level being consumed.

Be that as it may, we know from our higher-timeframe analysis that price is currently trading around a daily swap level coming in at 0.82625, which is at the time of writing forcing the market to retest 0.83 as resistance. As far as buying is concerned, we would only be comfortable placing orders in the market if prices closed above and retested 0.83 as support. Lower-timeframe confirmation would be required here around the 0.83049 mark. The first take-profit target comes in at 0.83657, just below a 4hr supply area at 0.83894-0.89676.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.83049 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on where one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe is currently showing selling activity just below a major weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 112.180. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: Friday’s NFP madness saw the USD rally a little fewer than 200 pips up to a daily supply area coming in at 122.610-121.540 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level). This area seems to have attracted sellers into the market yesterday, and in our view, further selling could indeed take place since near-term demand is not seen until 119.327-119.778.

4hr Timeframe: The recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show that ever since the market opened at 121.576, the sellers have been in control. Price is currently seen edging closer towards a 4hr decision-point demand area at 120.071-120.366. This area holds extra significance to us since this is where NFP buying took place; therefore there may be unfilled buy orders left there.

We intend to trade this market the following way:

  • Watch for lower-timeframe buying confirmation (tentative buy orders seen just above at 120.435) around the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area. Nonetheless, we will be extra cautious due to price currently trading around higher-timeframe supply (see above) at the moment.
  • In the event that this 4hr decision-point demand area is consumed, we will then begin looking for shorting opportunities targeting the 4hr demand area seen at 119.116-119.323.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 120.435 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 119.937).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: For the past five weeks, the USD/CAD pair has been seen trading between a major weekly supply area at 1.18061-1.14739, and a weekly resistance swap level coming in at 1.12231. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: Initially, we felt there was a good chance that a bearish correction was on the cards, since a beautiful three-drive reversal pattern formed. However, yesterday saw the USD/CAD advance to fresh highs of 1.14845 above a daily resistance zone at 1.14655-1.14214 which is not what we expected to happen. Considering the fact the market is still trading around humongous weekly supply at the moment (see above), our bias remains short, even with the buying interest currently being shown.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that a few hours ago, price closed above a small 4hr resistance zone coming in at 1.14655-1.14517 (located within the aforementioned daily resistance zone). Like the USD/JPY, we believe this pair to be at a critical juncture now, and as such, we intend to trade it similarly.

In the event that further sellers come into the market, and price declines down towards a small 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.14258-1.14404; we will be looking for the following:

  1. Watching the lower-timeframes like a hawk for buying confirmation around the 1.14420 mark, with take-profit targets seen around 1.15. Please bear in mind though; we are only attempting to trade a small bounce here, a scalp trade.
  2. Conversely, if the 1.14258-1.14404 area is consumed, this will be our cue to begin looking for shorts targeting 1.14024, as the path south will likely be free down towards 1.13851-1.13988, another 4hr decision-point demand area.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.14420 [tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.14236).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the DAX advanced to a fresh high of 10094 last week, as price firmly closed above 10048. Be that as it may, it appears that the buyers are struggling defend 10048 at the moment, as sellers are seen currently driving prices south. Assuming that further selling takes place, a decline in value could be seen all the way down to a weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 9126-9467. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: The overall push higher was seen on Friday off of a daily swap area coming in at 9892-9792.  Our bias for the DAX still remains long, and will continue to do so until a daily close below this swap area is seen. In fact, this could be a fantastic zone to be looking for confirmed longs if/when price reaches this area.

1hr Timeframe: The 1hr timeframe shows that buying interest is currently being seen from around 9950 which will in our opinion only last up until the 10032 level, just below a 1hr supply area at 10061-10036.

The most likely scenario for the DAX in our view is for further selling to be seen down towards 9891-9918, a 4hr demand area sitting on top of the daily swap area mentioned above at 9892-9792, and possibly the 9832-9865 area given enough time (located deep within the aforementioned daily swap area).  Both of these areas are valid buying zones, but fakeouts are very possible here. With that in mind, lower-timeframe confirmation will be required for us to be convinced a rally in price will take place. Tentative buy orders are seen at the following levels: 9922/9869.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 9922 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 9886) 9869 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 9826).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The DOW has been trading beautifully within a nice-looking trending channel for over five years, and shows no signs of slowing down just yet. The recently closed weekly candle shows that the buyers once again remained in control. However, at this point in time, selling interest is currently being seen from 17972.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the selling activity seen on the weekly timeframe has forced the market back down to around a minor daily swap level coming in at 17841. Assuming that the sellers keep up with this enthusiasm, we could possibly see price test a small daily demand area seen below at 17717-17767.

1hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that we were looking for buy trades in between 17925/17895.  We unfortunately missed our entry at a glaringly-obvious 5 minute Quasimodo support level around 17901 which was good for a scalp trade. From there the DOW traded up to a 1hr supply area at 17961-17951, where at which point an aggressive sell off was seen down into a 1hr demand area coming in at 17785-17814 (seen just below the 17841 daily swap level).

Assuming that the buyers can break above the 1hr decision-point supply area seen at 17907-17884, we could potentially have a buying opportunity at 17830, just above 15-minute demand area seen at 17802-17828 (as per the red arrows) targeting 17948. Just below the aforementioned 1hr supply area.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17830 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17800).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: For the past five weeks, Gold has been trading between a weekly decision-point demand level at 1136.30, and a weekly support swap level coming in at 1202.91. A close above would likely attract further buying towards yet another weekly support swap level at 1244.08. Likewise, a close below could force the market to test 1074.65, a weekly Quasimodo support level.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the market has found support around the 1187.02 mark. Assuming that the buyers keep us this enthusiasm, we can likely expect prices to test the daily decision-point supply area at 1235.51-1222.37 (located just below the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1244.08).

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price has recently faked above a nice-looking 4hr supply area coming in at 1207.45-1201.61, no doubt stopping countless traders out (including us).

We believe a decision needs to be made here. If the buyers intend on taking prices higher, then there is very little selling opposition seen until a small 4hr supply area at 1226.52-1220.97 (located just within a daily supply area at 1235.51-1222.37), since all we see to the left is consumed supply – check out the consumption wicks at: 1213.21/1214.88. However, if a fakeout is seen here, then the path south is relatively free down towards 1182.01, as most of the buying opposition has likely already been taken out already around 1191.82.

We are going to be watching current price to see how lower-timeframe price action behaves. If we see a positive set up either long or short, we will not hesitate to take the signal and place our order.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).