EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: It has been a very exciting weak for the sellers, as the Euro saw a 230-pip decline. This consequently saw the market close (1.22849) within a major weekly Quasimodo support area coming in at 1.22403-1.22942. Could this be enough to trigger a reversal?

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily demand area seen at 1.22877-1.23809 has seen a positive close lower, as traders sold the Euro and bought U.S Dollars due to positive NFP numbers. Breaking this area has potentially opened the gates for prices to challenge a daily demand area seen below at 1.21326-1.22234. If prices do indeed decline this far, a break of the aforementioned major weekly Quasimodo support area would be seen, indicating a fakeout may be on the cards, if of course this daily demand area holds and follow-through buying is seen.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the market closed the week (1.22849) just above a 4hr demand area coming in at 1.22547-1.22832.  Risk/reward considerations argue against entering a buy order here with price so very close to 1.23. We’d rather wait for price to close above 1.23 and retest this level before putting our money on the line. The above could well happen today or even tomorrow since let’s not forget; we are currently trading within a weekly Quasimodo support area (levels above) at the moment. The only grumble we have is that the daily demand area at 1.22877-1.23809 appears to have failed indicating possible weakness within this market.

With that in mind, we have to be prepared for further selling to be seen. A break below current demand could force the market down to a nice-looking 4hr Quasimodo support level at 1.22168 (located within the daily demand at 1.21326-1.22234, but just below the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support area), which also has a buffer support seen below it at 1.22. Therefore, this is definitely an area that’s firmly on our radar for this coming week.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: For the past three weeks, the GBP/USD pair has seen the buyers and sellers battling it out for position between a nice-looking weekly demand area at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly resistance swap level coming in at 1.57166. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the market closed (1.55822) very deep within a daily decision-point demand area seen at 1.55602-1.56802 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area). A break lower would likely attract further selling down towards a daily resistance swap level coming in at 1.54344. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe shows.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe reveals that just before the market closed; buying interest was seen coming off of a 4hr long-term support swap level at 1.55737. The only way to find out if this buying was legit and not just traders profit taking from the NFP move would be a follow-through to the upside, preferably closing above 1.56, and attacking supply seen around 1.56224.

A break lower on the other hand would likely encourage a sell off down towards 1.55, or even the 4hr Quasimodo support area seen just below it at 1.54614-1.54903. This move would mean that the daily decision- demand area would be completely consumed and prices effectively driven very deep into the aforementioned weekly demand area.

With all the above taken into consideration, we would not be comfortable buying the pound until we were convinced that supply around 1.56224 was consumed. We would in actual fact be more comfortable selling on a potential retest of 1.55737 if a break lower is seen, targeting 1.55, since the path south appears to be relatively free of active demand down to this level.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week was clearly one for the sellers as prices were drove deep into a major weekly demand area coming in at 0.80646-0.84601. With that being said, price is now very close to the downtrend channel support, which could help facilitate a bounce/reversal. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that a daily demand area seen at 0.83147-0.84336 saw a slight break just before the market closed at 0.83169. In the event that buying comes into the market here, we see no reason why prices cannot rally up to at least 0.85396, a minor daily support swap level. Conversely, if the Aussie continues to decline, price may test a daily demand area coming in at 0.80809-0.82270 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area), which lines up nicely with the weekly down trending channel support – great confluence!

DLY

4hr Timeframe: A break and retest was seen around the 4hr downtrend channel support on Friday as the AUD/USD plummeted on positive NFP numbers.

Near-term support comes in at 0.83. If this level holds, and allows us to enter long with lower-timeframe confirmation around the 0.83035 mark, we would happily ride prices north towards a minor 4hr supply area seen at 0.83894-0.89676, assuming of course the channel support (now resistance) does not hold the market lower. With that being said, in the event that 0.83 is breached, a sell off could well be seen down towards 0.82 (lines up beautifully with the daily demand area mentioned above at 0.80809-0.82270), which could give us an opportunity to short the retest and ride the wave down.

4hr

 Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.83035 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on where one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: For the past six weeks the USD/JPY pair has been on fire. During that time, price has obliterated two major weekly supply areas (114.650-112.530/117.931-116.799). Last week’s trading action saw the USD rally a little over 380 pips, which resulted in the market closing at 121.439, just under a major a weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.180.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: Friday saw the market rally just under 200 pips towards a fresh daily supply area coming in at 122.610-121.540, which was clearly fueled by positive NFP numbers. Could we see a correction from here sometime this week, or will the USD continue marching north? Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: From our higher-timeframe analysis, we know that price closed around higher-timeframe supply (see above), and with that, a correction in the market could be seen. The NFP result propelled prices above 121, which was subsequently retested as support just before the market closed.

In the event that the market is forced below 121 sometime this week, we could have an opportunity to sell the retest and ride the wave down towards a small 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 120.071-120.366. However, if prices were to hold above 121, we would not be comfortable buying this market at this point in time since we would be effectively trading into higher-timeframe supply.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: For the past five weeks, the USD/CAD pair has been seen trading between a major weekly supply area seen at 1.18061-1.14739, and a weekly resistance swap level coming in at 1.12231. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: In our opinion, the daily timeframe shows a clear three-drive reversal pattern into the aforementioned weekly supply area. Friday saw this pair rally above a minor area of daily supply coming in at 1.14655-1.14214, which could either be a continuation spike, or a fakeout to take prices lower.  At this point in time, it’s very difficult to tell; hopefully the 4hr timeframe will offer us some more information.

DLY

4hr Timeframe:  For anyone who follows our analysis on a regular basis, you may recall us mentioning that we placed a sell limit order at 1.14266, since we believed prices would decline from here. Positive NFP numbers unfortunately forced the market into our stop (1.14603) with an aggressive spike seen at 1.14750.

Let’s quickly recap here. We are seeing that the weekly timeframe is effectively ranging between a weekly supply area and a weekly support level (see above) at the moment, while the daily timeframe resembles a three-drive reversal pattern into the weekly supply area just mentioned. Therefore, our bias for the USD/CAD pair is currently short.

The 4hr timeframe printed a rather large spike/wick (level above) piercing a 4hr resistance zone at 1.14655-1.14517, which no doubt consumed an unimaginable amount of traders (including us). This move has likely given pro money the liquidity needed (buy stops) to sell into the market, so we could essentially see a sell off sometime today down to a small 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.13851-1.13988. If this area is consumed, we will then begin looking for selling opportunities, targeting a minor 4hr Quasimodo level at 1.13458.

4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the DAX advanced to a fresh high of 10094 last week, as price firmly closed above 10048. Provided that the buyers can hold out above here, this could be a nice level to begin looking for buying opportunities.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The buyers clearly used the daily resistance swap area seen at 9892-9792 to propel prices above a small daily resistance zone seen at 10048-10007. Much the same as the weekly timeframe – if the buyers can hold out above this zone, there could be a chance to enter long and potentially ride the next wave of this three-year uptrend.

DLY

1hr Timeframe: The 1hr timeframe shows that the push higher was relatively aggressive with no retest seen of 10048 along the way.

As already mentioned, if the buyers can hold out above 10048 this could be a good opportunity to enter long. However, the 1hr timeframe shows that just below this level, there’s a small 1hr decision-point demand area at 10008-10032, which is likely where pro money made the overall decision to breakout north, and as such we expect  there to be unfilled buy orders remaining around this area.

With the above in mind, here is what we see happening on the DAX either today, or early on in the week. Price will likely see a correction down to 10048, a few indecision candles will possibly form, then price will spike deep into the aforementioned 1hr decision-point demand area (pending buy order set just above at 10036), and then proceed to continue north advancing to fresh highs.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 10036 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 10004).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The DOW has been trading beautifully within a nice-looking trending channel for over five years, and shows no signs of slowing down just yet. The recently closed weekly candle shows that the buyers were once again victorious with prices rallying to fresh highs of 17989, which consequently engulfed the previous week’s trading range.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the rebound from 17841 extended higher on Friday which saw the market close at 17960. It will be interesting to see what the 1hr timeframe picture looks like.

DLY

1hr Timeframe: The 1hr timeframe shows that around 8am GMT time (London open), the buyers were seen aggressively trading off of 17895, which we believe was where the overall decision was made to push the DOW up to fresh highs. It was at around midday GMT time that the sellers began making an appearance, consequently pushing prices south down towards 17925, where at which point the buyers stepped back in and bought the market into the close.

With the buyers still clearly in control, we intend to try and get in on some of the action. We are going to be watching the area seen marked in yellow between 17925/17895 today and possibly into tomorrow for confirmed long entries on the 5/15 minute timeframes.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Currently watching for a confirmed long entry between 17925/17895 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows that the buyers and sellers were seen battling it out between a weekly decision-point demand level at 1136.30, and a weekly support swap level coming in at 1202.91. A break above would likely attract further buying towards yet another weekly support swap level at 1244.08. Likewise, a break below could force the market to test 1074.65, a weekly Quasimodo support level.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that after coming within a few points of hitting a daily supply area seen at 1235.51-1222.37 (located just below the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1244.08), prices stalled for three consecutive trading days, but eventually sold off on Friday down to 1185.91, just above a major daily support swap level coming in at 1182.01. Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The selloff seen on Friday was very likely fuelled by the positive NFP numbers, which forced price to close price below the low 1191.81. This has likely consumed the majority of buyers here, and consequently opened the gates for prices to challenge 1182.01, a daily support swap level.

We currently have our eye on selling the NFF-formed supply area at 1207.45-1201.61 today, since we now have potential short-term direction down towards 1182.01 (as per the blue arrows). This 4hr supply area likely has unfilled sell orders remaining due to well-funded traders scrambling to get the best prices around NFP time, which we intend to take full advantage of. A sell limit order has been set at 1200.73, with a stop placed above at 1208.25.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1200.73 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1208.25).