EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the EUR/USD has recently hit a major weekly Quasimodo support level coming in at 1.22866. This may be a good time to begin thinking about closing any short trades, as the market could reverse here up to a weekly support swap level seen above at 1.25816.

Daily Timeframe: A break below a long-term daily demand area at 1.22877-1.23809 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level) was seen yesterday. This move caused stops to likely be triggered resulting in the market rallying up to a small daily decision-point supply area seen at 1.25056-1.24180.  In the event that the sellers can hold out below here, a move south could very well be seen sometime today towards a daily demand area at 1.21326-1.22234.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe reveals that there were clearly traders willing to buy around the 1.23 mark. Unfortunately, price moved far too quickly for us to enter on the lower timeframes. The momentum north rocketed price through a 4hr support swap level (1.23638), and the round number 1.24 to test the down trending channel resistance, which consequently forced prices back down towards 1.23638.

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering long here (1.23638) with prices so close to resistance (1.24). A break lower could fuel a drop in value down towards 1.23, which could produce a bounce since there are likely unfilled buy orders left over from the recent rally that took place from there. Furthermore, a close below here could attract further selling down towards a very obvious 4hr support swap level coming in at 1.21612 (located deep within the daily demand area mentioned above at 1.21326-1.22234). Why we believe prices could drop that far comes from looking to the left of current price – check out the possible demand consumption tails seen at: 1.22877/1.22547. With the demand/buying opposition consumed, there should be very little support left in the market.

With the weekly timeframe showing price trading around serious support, and the daily timeframe suggesting a move south could ensue (see above); this effectively means we may see a fakeout past weekly support before higher prices can ensue. And with the might NFP announcement due later today, this is very possible.

Therefore, given the points made above we have decided to remain flat at least until post-NFP.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: For the past two weeks, the GBP/USD has seen rather cramped trading conditions. The buyers and sellers are currently battling for position in between a nice-looking weekly demand area coming in at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly resistance swap level seen at 1.57166.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that there are two prominent areas of resistance above the current daily decision-point demand area at 1.55602-1.56802 (seen within the aforementioned weekly demand area). These areas need to be consumed before further buying can take place. The first obviously being the 1.57166 level already mentioned above, and the second – a firm-looking daily supply area seen at 1.59438-1.58338. Let’s see what the 4hr-timeframe picture looks like.

4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous report that we would be looking for short-term sells around 1.57. We did not personally trade here, but there were some very nice scalping opportunities to be had yesterday on the 15-minute timeframe with the potential of locking in some nice profits. Well done to any of our readers that managed to lock in some green pips here.

With a bit of luck today, the NFP may sort out this pair’s recent sluggish behavior. The congestive higher-timeframe price action (see above) makes it very difficult to trade, and as such, similar to the EUR/USD, we have decided to take a step back and wait for the NFP numbers to be released before we take any trades on this pair.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price has hit a major weekly demand area coming in at 0.80646-0.84601 with little to no interest currently being seen by the buyers. Let’s see what the lower-timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: Further selling was once again seen on the Aussie yesterday forcing prices to print a fresh low of 0.83546. This move has drove prices even deeper into a daily demand area seen at 0.83147-0.84336 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr Timeframe: Considering that the AUS/USD is currently in a buy zone (see above) at the moment, the 4hr timeframe price action is showing very little obvious bullish strength.

The reason we use the word obvious here is because it only appears like the Aussie is not showing any strength (only our opinion). If we take a closer look we can see for the past few days price has been grinding south along the 4hr channel support. As the market declines, price is seen spiking north (see the pink trendline). This could be for two reasons. One is to fill any unfilled sell orders to continue selling, and two could very well be pro money buyers entering small batches of buy orders against this selling momentum, so once price hits a significant support on the 4hr timeframe, pro money will already be heavily long this market. Unfortunately though, we do not have enough historical data feed to see where such a support level is on the 4hr timeframe, so for the time being we’re watching 0.83500 and 0.83 for any sign of bullish intention on the 15/5 minute timeframes.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Currently watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 0.83500/0.83 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: Further buying is indeed being seen on the USD/JPY pair. This comes after price positively closing above a major weekly supply area at 117.931-116.799 last week. Does this mean we could be seeing further buying up to a weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.180 in the near future? Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see how price is structured.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw the market print a daily indecision candle just above a daily supply area at 119.820-118.700.  We can be relatively confident that most of the sellers’ buy stops have been taken out, and as such, we feel there’s a good chance follow-through buying may be seen up to a daily supply area coming in at 122.610-121.540, which beautifully surrounds the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level.

4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that the 4hr demand area at 119.116-119.323 could provide a nice base in which to enter long from. As it turns out it was. The reaction was nearly to-the-pip. Unfortunately, we were not involved in this move as we decided to wait for lower-timeframe price action, since we believed a fakeout was likely going to be seen.

All is not lost though, with the NFP announcement due later today, we could potentially get another shot at entering long around the 4hr demand area. We will however be once again requiring confirmation from the lower timeframes, since the volatility that’s expected could indeed force prices to fakeout lower. Assuming that we manage to enter long sometime during today’s sessions, we intend to ride this baby north at least until the daily supply area mentioned above at 122.610-121.540.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 119.361 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.935).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that price is stalling below a major weekly supply area coming in at 1.18061-1.14739 where neither side have control as far as we can see.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe represents what we believe to be a nice-looking three-drive reversal pattern – the first drive is seen at 1.12696, second at 1.13842, and finally the third at 1.14655, which was the reaction seen at the aforementioned weekly supply area. For a sell off to be seen from here, a stacked area of daily demand will need to be consumed beforehand (1.11211-1.11813/1.11896-1.12416). It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe shows.

4hr Timeframe: Technically, not much has changed on this pair, and as such most of our previous analysis still remains valid.

Essentially, we’re still looking to enter short below the 4hr fakeout zone (1.14474-1.14290) at 1.14266 (located just below the aforementioned weekly supply area). We’re hoping that with the volatility expected today, a break above 1.14 will force prices into our sell order, as on the previous attempt seen marked with a green flag, the selling opposition clearly overwhelmed the buyers.

Our first take-profit target for this trade is around 1.13; due to the buying opposition around the 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.13243-1.13413 has already likely been consumed. Our second and final take-profit target will be set around the 1.12382 level, as this lines up perfectly with the first area of stacked daily demand at 1.11896-1.12416 (as per the blue arrows).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.14266 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.14603).

 

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the buyers have well and truly been in control for the past two weeks now. This consequently forced price to trade around an all-time high seen at 10048, where at the time of writing a little selling interest is being seen. A break above here would likely attract further buying, resulting in the DAX continuing on its (near) three-year uptrend.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading session was rather aggressive in comparison to the previous five trading days. Price formed a bearish engulfing candle around a daily resistance zone coming in at 10048-10007. This will potentially get a lot of candle-trading enthusiasts entering on the break of the low 9833. Nonetheless, entering short here may not be the best path to take considering that just below lurks a daily ignored Quasimodo level at 9789, which will likely see a bounce at the very least. A break lower below this level would be a different story entirely.

1hr Timeframe: The 1hr timeframe shows that the DAX sold off at around 13:00 pm GMT yesterday, which consequently broke below a 1hr demand area seen at 9867-9903 into a minor 4hr resistance swap level coming in at 9832. A break below this level would not likely be of any use to us, as oncoming 4hr demand is looming just below at 9971-9789 (located around the ignored daily resistance level seen at 9789). If buying strength is seen around here, this will potentially indicate selling weakness from the 10048 weekly level, which is a possibility since let’s not forget that the DAX has been in an overall uptrend for nearly three years now.

With the above taken into consideration, we are going to be watching this index closely today around the green area (9832/9789) for lower-timeframe confirmation to enter long. In the event that this green area is consumed however, this would likely encourage follow-through selling down towards at least the 1hr demand area coming in at 9683-9712.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Currently watching for lower-timeframe confirmation between 9382 and 9789 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 9762).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The DOW has been trading beautifully within a nice-looking trending channel for over five years, and shows no signs of slowing down just yet. The current weekly candle shows that the buyers are still in control for the time being as new highs are being seen at 17937.

Daily Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that if the buyers could hold out above 17841, then this may provide a nice platform in which to begin looking for buying opportunities. As we can all see, the sellers attempted to trade lower yesterday, but found this level to be supportive enough to turn things around. The real test nevertheless will likely come later on today when the NFP numbers are released.

1hr Timeframe: For anyone who follows our analysis on a regular basis, you may recall us noting that we placed a pending buy order just above a 1hr decision-point demand area (17826-17842) at 17843. We unfortunately were stopped out as price traded further south into an hourly decision-point demand area seen at 17785-17814.

In the event that the DOW once again declines towards 17785-17814 today, we will be watching the 5/15 minute timeframes for an entry long around the 17817 mark. That being said though, we intend to trade cautiously since this area has already been visited, and in essence – weakened, and also not forgetting the NFP numbers will likely affect the way this index moves during the day as well.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17817 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17781).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: Buying has recently been seen in the Gold markets, prices skyrocketed north from a weekly decision-point demand level coming in at 1136.30 towards a weekly swap level seen at 1202.91. Assuming that the buyers can overcome any selling opposition around here, price will likely continue to rally until it reaches another weekly swap level seen just above at 1244.08. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that after coming within a few points of hitting a daily supply area seen at 1235.51-1222.37 (located just below the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1244.08), price appears to be stalling. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr-timeframe picture looks like.

4hr Timeframe: Technically, the Gold market has not moved much in the last 24 hours, which as a result much of the previous analysis remains.

At the time of writing, the 4hr timeframe shows that price is currently capped between a 4hr resistance swap level seen at 1194.11, and a 4hr supply area seen at 1226.52-1220.97 (located just within the daily supply area mentioned above at 1235.51-1222.37). This may give traders the opportunity to trade the limits of this prospective range with tentative buys seen at 1195.20, and sells at 1220.20. However, trading here in our opinion could be risky, since fakeouts will likely occur especially with the NFP announcement due later today. That is why in situations such as these, we tend to watch the lower timeframes for confirmation before entering into a position.

In the event that a breakout north is seen, the buyers would effectively be buying into supply (daily supply – see above), which could see the market go either way since we currently have higher-timeframe buying power being seen off of a weekly decision-point demand level at 1136.30. A break below 1194.11 on the other hand would likely give us an opportunity to sell the retest down to at least the daily support flip level seen at 1182.01.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1195.20 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1190.66).
  • Sell orders: 1220.20 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1227.65).