EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Serious selling is being seen on the Euro at the moment which as a result is driving price towards a weekly Quasimodo support level coming in at 1.22866. Will this level be enough to trigger a reversal? Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that a beautiful-looking daily demand area coming in at 1.22877-1.23809 surrounds the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level. However, at this point in time price is trading very deep within this area, with little to no buying interest being seen at the moment. A break below would likely result in further selling down towards another daily demand area seen at at 1.21326-1.22234, which could help facilitate a fakeout past the weekly Quasimodo level, and at the same time provide a nice area for us to look for buys.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe also shows that price is trading deep within demand at the moment, a combined 4hr demand/round number area coming in at 1.22942-1.23491/1.23 (located within the daily demand area mentioned above at 1.22877-1.23809).  Our buy order which was filled at 1.23517 just above this area has been closed at a loss, since lower-timeframe price action was suggesting further selling was on the cards.

Providing that active buyers enter the market here, we see very little resistance above that could stop prices from rallying up to at least 1.23638, a 4hr support swap level. On the other hand, a break lower could encourage follow-through selling down towards a very obvious 4hr support swap level coming in at 1.21612 (located deep within the daily demand area mentioned above at 1.21326-1.22234). Why we believe prices could drop that far comes from looking to the left of current price – check out the possible demand consumption tails seen at: 1.22877/1.22547. With the demand/buying opposition consumed, there should be very little support left in the market.

We’re going to be watching this market closely over the next 24hrs ready to pounce on any buying opportunities that may present itself around the current 4hr demand area, and likewise if price breaks lower, we’ll be looking for any selling opportunities on any retesting opportunity that may be seen.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: For the past two weeks, the GBP/USD has seen rather cramped trading conditions. The buyers and sellers are currently battling for position in between a nice-looking weekly demand area coming in at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly resistance swap level seen at 1.57166.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that there are two prominent areas of resistance that the buyers have to overcome, before any move higher can ensue from the current daily decision-point demand area at 1.55602-1.56802 (seen within the aforementioned weekly demand area). The first obviously being the 1.57166 level already mentioned above, and the second – a firm-looking daily supply area seen at 1.59438-1.58338. Let’s see what the 4hr-timeframe picture looks like.

4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that we were going to watch for lower-timeframe buying confirmation around the 4hr support area coming in at 1.55917-1.56299. Unfortunately, we could not see any safe entries to enter long.

With both the weekly and daily timeframe showing very little direction (see above), trading this pair has become quite difficult. There are still opportunities to trade in our opinion, but only if the targets are kept small and manageable.

Given the points made above, we intend to trade this pair the following way:

  1. Price is currently trading around 1.57, which is if you remember only 16 pips below the weekly support swap level at 1.57166. So, with that in mind we are going to watch the 15/5 minute timeframes for any short-term selling opportunities that may arise, targeting the 4hr support area coming in at 1.55917-1.56299.
  2. Assuming that price breaks above 1.57, this will be our cue to consider buying the retest (if seen of course), with our first take-profit target set at the high 1.57629, and the second seen at 1.57941 just below 1.58.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Currently watching for confirmation around the 1.57 area (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price has just hit a major weekly demand area coming in at 0.80646-0.84601 with little to no interest currently being seen by the buyers. Let’s see what the lower-timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The rebound seen from the minor daily support swap level at 0.85936 extended lower recently, which as a result drove prices further south into a daily demand area seen at 0.83147-0.84336 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who read our previous report on the Aussie, we mentioned that there could be other lower-timeframe opportunities to enter long around the minor 4hr demand area at 0.84153-0.84367 (can be seen in Wednesday’s analysis). Fortunately there was not, as price blew straight through this area down towards 0.84, where at the time of writing the buyers and sellers are currently seen battling for position.

Unfortunately, we do not have the feed to see what the 4hr timeframe price action is like in the past, so we’ll have to work from what we have for the time being. The down trending channel (0.87948/0.84788) has been adapted to suit the current market conditions which lines up beautifully with 0.84. This level has been placed on our watch list, and if the lower-timeframes confirm buying strength here, we would not think twice about buying, since we mustn’t forget that price is currently trading around both a major weekly demand area seen at 0.80646-0.84601, and also a daily demand area coming in at 0.83147-0.84336.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Currently watching for lower-timeframe confirmation around 0.84 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: Further buying is indeed being seen on the USD/JPY pair. This comes after price positively closing above a major weekly supply area at 117.931-116.799 last week. Does this mean we could be seeing further buying up to a weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.180? Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see how price is structured.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that further buying was seen yesterday consequently breaking above a daily supply area seen at 119.820-118.700. Assuming that the majority of sellers have been consumed here, the path north would likely be clear up to a daily supply area coming in at 122.610-121.540, which beautifully surrounds the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level beautifully.

4hr Timeframe: We mentioned in the previous analysis that we were looking to buy the retest of 119, but as we can all see this never got hit. The recent buying momentum has formed a 4hr demand area seen at 119.116-119.323, which could provide a nice base from which to enter long from if price returns (tentative buy orders seen just above at

119.361). With the higher timeframes indicating that prices could indeed continue to rally higher, we would usually set a pending buy order above a demand area such as this. However, with the psychological level 119 floating just below, it could be too tempting for pro money to fake prices lower. Therefore, lower-timeframe confirmation will be required for any buy trades taken here.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 119.361 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.935).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that price is stalling below a major weekly supply area coming in at 1.18061-1.14739 where neither side has taken control as far as we can see.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe represents what we believe to be a nice-looking three-drive pattern – 1st drive is seen at 1.12696, second at 1.13842, and finally the third being the reaction seen at the aforementioned weekly supply area at 1.14655. For a sell off to be seen from here, a stacked area of daily demand will need to be consumed beforehand (1.11211-1.11813/1.11896-1.12416). It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe shows.

4hr Timeframe: In the previous report we mentioned that a short trade was potentially setting up on the USD/CAD. We felt that there was a good chance price would rally up to a 4hr fakeout zone seen at 1.14474-1.14290, and fill our pending sell order set at 1.14266. As we can all see, selling interest came into the market before our level was hit.

Be that as it may, we’re not going to cancel our pending sell order just yet, as we have seen this type of movement time and time again – price reacts just below an area, declines for a day or two, and then breaks the highs into supply only then then drop like a rock! Therefore, much the same as yesterday, our first take-profit target for this trade is around 1.13, due to buying opposition around the 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.13243-1.13413 already likely being consumed. Our second and final take-profit target will be around the 1.12382 level, as this lines up perfectly with the first area of stacked daily demand at 1.11896-1.12416.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.14266 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.14603).

 

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the buyers have well and truly been in control for the past two weeks now. This has consequently forced price up to an all-time high seen at 10048, where at the time of writing, a little selling interest has been seen. A break above here would likely attract further buying, resulting in the DAX continuing on its (near) three-year uptrend.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading session saw further buying come into the market. This is not a good sign for anyone who shorted around the daily resistance zone coming in at 10048-10007. Check out the beautiful array of buying tails that formed, one can almost feel the buying pressure building for a break higher!

1hr Timeframe: The 1hr timeframe shows that price still remains consolidating between a 1hr supply area at 10002-9988, and a 1hr demand area coming in at 9867-9903.

The buyers attacked the upper limits of this range twice yesterday. The first touch (marked with a red arrow) gave us little chance to enter short unless one is comfortable entering on the 1/3 minute timeframes. The second touch (marked with a blue arrow) saw too small a sell off to form any worthwhile price action. With that in mind, one can see the potential buildup of buying pressure forming here. Notice the first touch saw quite an aggressive reaction considering the location, but the second touch was weak indicating this is likely a buyers’ market at the moment.

Taking the above into consideration, our bias is currently long 80% and short 20% – the 20% comes from price trading around the weekly 10048 high. In the event that a breakout north is seen today, and price holds above the 10002-9988 area, we will consider this as confirmation of buying strength. That being said though, we’ll not be executing any buy orders until price trades above 10048, so at this point in time we are going to sit on the side lines, and watch how price action develops before making any decisions.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: The DOW has been trading beautifully within a nice-looking trending channel for over five years now. The recently closed weekly candle shows that the upward momentum may be fading, as price failed to make a higher high which as a result formed a weekly inside candle. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: Further buying was seen yesterday, which saw the index advance to a fresh high of 17925. If the buyers can hold out above 17841, then this could provide a nice platform in which to begin looking for buying opportunities.

1hr Timeframe: We mentioned in yesterday’s report that a small break (blue arrow) had been seen above a 1hr supply area at 17896-17864, which later resulted in follow-through buying.

Although we have seen a rally in price, we still feel the 1hr decision-point demand area seen below at 17826-17842 (located around the 17841 daily level) is a magnet for price. The reason being is this is likely where pro money made the decision to breakout higher, and thus there may well be unfilled buy orders still remaining. With that being said, check out how each time the market recently traded higher, price spiked lower (see red circles) to collect unfilled buy orders to continue trading north, which at the same time has potentially cleared the path south down to the aforementioned 1hr decision-point demand area.

Another poignant fact regarding the current price structure is that if price did indeed decline, there would likely be a ton of buy orders lurking around the 17848 area (red arrow) with tight stops set just below. This would give well-funded traders effectively the chance to add further liquidity here using the sell stops from fader traders and also breakout sellers’ sell orders to buy into.

Given the points made above, a pending buy order has been set at 17843, just above the 1hr decision-point demand area, with a tight stop placed below at 17825.

1hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 17843 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17825).
  • Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: Serious buying has recently been seen in the Gold markets, prices skyrocketed north from a weekly decision-point demand level coming in at 1136.30 towards a weekly swap level seen at 1202.91. Assuming that the buyers can overcome any selling opposition around here, price will likely continue to rally until it reaches another weekly swap level seen at 1244.08. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that after coming within a few points of hitting a daily supply area seen at 1235.51-1222.37 (located just below the aforementioned weekly swap level), price appears to be stalling. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr-timeframe picture looks like.

4hr Timeframe: We mentioned in the previous analysis that we took a confirmed short trade around the 4hr resistance swap level at 1202.83, which resulted in us taking a loss. This trade gave little opportunity to exit beforehand, and rightly so as we traded directly into support. Admittedly, we did not see this 4hr resistance swap level coming in at 1194.11, and this is no doubt what caused our loss as price reacted beautifully off of it.

At the time of writing, the 4hr timeframe shows that price is currently capped between the 1194.11 level that was just mentioned above, and a 4hr supply area seen at 1226.52-1220.97 (located just within the daily supply area mentioned above at 1235.51-1222.37). This may give traders the opportunity to trade the limits of this prospective range with tentative buys seen at 1195.20, and sells at 1220.20. However, trading here in our opinion would be risky, since fakeouts will likely occur. That is why in situations such as these, we tend to watch the lower timeframes for confirmation before entering into a position.

In the event that a breakout north is seen, the buyers would effectively be buying into supply (daily supply – see above), which could see the market go either way. A break lower on the other hand would likely give us an opportunity to sell the retest down to at least the daily support flip level seen at 1182.01.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1195.20 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1190.66).
  • Sell orders: 1220.20 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1227.65).