EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe is currently showing that the buyers and sellers are battling it out around a major combined weekly demand/Quasimodo support area at 1.22403-1.24420/1.22866. In the event that the buyers outweigh the sellers here, prices will likely rally higher and test a weekly support swap level coming in at 1.25816.

Daily Timeframe: The current situation on the daily timeframe shows that price has been, and still is consolidating between a daily supply area at 1.26386-1.25459 (surrounds the aforementioned weekly support swap level), and a long-term daily demand area coming in at 1.22877-1.23809 (located relatively deep within the aforementioned combined weekly demand/Quasimodo support area). Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who has not read our previous reports on this pair, here is a quick ‘heads up’. 50% of our team are currently looking to the short side due to the Euro being in a long-term downtrend. The remaining 50% are favoring longs since price is currently located around higher-timeframe demand (see above) at the moment.

Price did exactly as expected; a beautiful reaction was seen around the 4hr demand swap area at 1.24422-1.24588. There was indeed lower-timeframe confirmation in which to enter south here, if anyone had trouble seeing this, please do let us know, and we will happily show you. The selling pressure forced prices down to around 1.24, and as expected a rally higher ensued. However, price action was aggressive here, and unfortunately did not allow us a confirmed entry on the 15/5 minute timeframes.

A break above the aforementioned 4hr demand swap area shortly followed. As a consequence, this will likely attract further buying up to a 4hr resistance level coming in at 1.25, that conveniently lines up nicely with the channel resistance (upper/lower limits: 1.28859/1.26043). Once price enters the red circle, we intend to watch price like a hawk for lower-timeframe confirmation to short around 1.24956 area.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.24956 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one chooses to confirm this level).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The situation on the weekly timeframe shows that price action is currently contained between a weekly demand area seen at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly resistance swap level coming in at 1.57166.

Daily timeframe: The daily timeframe still shows that price is trading within a daily decision-point demand area at 1.55602-1.56802 (located within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 1.54260-1.56110). Nonetheless – like the weekly timeframe, the 1.57166 resistance barrier is presently holding the market lower resulting in tight ranging action being seen.

4hr Timeframe: The GBP/USD is not showing a lot of movement at the moment which is unusual for a pair that normally has reasonable volatility. As such, much of the previous analysis remains the same.

Ranging action is currently being seen right down from the weekly timeframe to the 4hr. The 4hr timeframe currently shows dreamy price action for range traders due to the market being firmly trapped between a 4hr supply area at 1.57208-1.56927 (surrounds the weekly resistance swap level at 1.57166), and a 4hr demand area seen at 1.55917-1.56299 (located within both weekly and daily demand – see above). As we can all see, the buyers have recently attempted to breakout north (1.57346), but are currently finding the selling opposition too strong to overcome. As of now, we’re watching the lower timeframes for an entry short – our take-profit target will be the lower limit of the range if/when we get an entry signal. Assuming a decline in value is seen from here, keep an eye out for buying opportunities around 1.56340, as this is where we intend to exit shorts, and look for longs. We would recommend entering with lower-timeframe confirmation to avoid a fakeout.

With price currently trading so near to the upper extremes of this range, a breakout north could very well be seen soon. This will likely encourage follow-through buying up to a 4hr supply area coming in at 1.57804-1.57578, and at the same time likely confirm that buying strength has entered the market from the aforementioned higher-timeframe demand areas.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.56340 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.55816).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price has been respecting the limits of a long-term down-trending channel (upper/lower limits – 0.97569/0.88468) for quite some time now. Recent trading action reveals that the sellers are attempting to break below the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.85769, which has been holding the market higher for three consecutive weeks. In the event that further selling is seen here, price will likely hit a major weekly demand area coming in at 0.80646-0.84601. Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that during yesterday’s trading sessions, the 0.85769 level saw a positive close below. As a result, the path south looks relatively clear for prices to test a fresh daily demand area seen at 0.83147-0.84336 (located relatively deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr Timeframe: The round-number level 0.86 gave way without much of a fight, and as such, the selling onslaught continued down to 0.85522, a 4hr Quasimodo support level, which was also consumed. At the time of writing, the buyers and sellers are trading around the lower limits of a downward trending channel (upper/lower limits: 0.87948/0.86742). Check out the selling wicks at 0.85508/0.85501 that have recently formed. In our opinion this is a good sign lower prices will follow. Considering we currently have bearish direction being seen on the daily timeframe at the moment (weekly timeframe is too early to tell as the candle is yet to close), we see the following scenario playing out today/tomorrow.  Prices will likely rally from the channel support, which will in turn will likely tempt buyers into the market forcing prices up to around what is now resistance at 0.85522 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 0.85491). Pro money will use these buyers to sell into (liquidity), and that will potentially force prices south towards 0.85, where once again we will watch price action to tell us where price is headed next.

Selling at 0.85491 will in our opinion be better off with lower-timeframe confirmation from 3/5 minute timeframes, since a fakeout could well be seen here. It will be interesting to see how price action unfolds.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.85491 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms this level).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the USD/JPY pair advance to a fresh high of 118.968 as price continued on its relentless march north. This move consequently spiked above a major weekly supply area coming in at 117.931-116.799. Was this spike a fakeout to gather liquidity for lower prices, or a continuation move for a rally higher? Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes.

Daily timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that this market may be taking a ‘breather’ just below a daily supply area coming in at 119.820-118.700 from the buying onslaught seen over the past few weeks. That being the case, for the current weekly spike to be a fakeout, follow-through selling would need to be seen from here, preferably closing below a near-term daily decision-point demand area coming in at 116.326-117.040. On the other hand, if price trades higher and consumes the daily supply area, we would know with a high probability that prices will likely continue north.

4hr Timeframe: In our opinion this pair has stagnated. One can just feel the stress being felt by the lower-timeframe traders who are attempting to buy and sell around 118 – revenge trade after revenge trade!

For us to consider buying the USD/JPY pair again, price would have to break above 119 and successfully retest it as support. Likewise, selling is something we would not be comfortable with doing until the 4hr ignored Quasimodo resistance level is consumed (located within the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area).

Therefore, until either of the above is seen, we are unfortunately forced to sit on the side lines for the time being.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price has been, and still remains to be consolidating between a weekly resistance level seen at 0.80328, and a major weekly demand area coming in at 0.76931-0.78623. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: The rebound from the ignored daily supply area at 0.79109-0.78917 extended higher yesterday. Assuming that the buyers do not lose their enthusiasm here, we could potentially see prices testing the weekly resistance level once again at 0.80328 (see above).

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price has just ever so slightly broke above a 4hr demand swap area seen at 0.79341-0.79410, which in our opinion may be a signal that price wants to trade up to at least the ignored 4hr demand swap area at 0.79538-0.79636, and we want to take advantage of that!

With the above in mind, this is how we intend to trade this pair: Ideally we want to see a reversal from current price down to a small 4hr decision-point demand level at 0.79217. It will be at this point where we’ll be watching the lower timeframes to enter long around 0.79243 targeting 0.79518. We would recommend using a very low timeframe for an entry since this will allow you to get the best possible risk/reward on your trade.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.79243 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms this level).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: Three weeks ago, selling interest came into the market a few pips below a major weekly supply area seen at 1.18061-1.14739, consequently encouraging follow-through selling.  As per this timeframe, it appears the path south is potentially clear down to at least 1.09394, since we believe most of the near-term demand has already likely been consumed – check out the demand consumption tails seen at 1.11211/1.10807. Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe currently shows that price is trading off of a minor daily supply area seen at 1.13681-1.13024. Assuming that the sellers show further strength here, a move south could ensue down towards a daily demand area coming in at 1.11211-1.11813. With that being said, this daily demand area would need to be consumed before further selling from the weekly supply area mentioned above at 1.18061-1.14739 is seen.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that aggressive selling interest came into the market around the 4hr supply area seen at 1.13238-1.13026. This is good for us, since if you remember we took a short trade at 1.12979. At the time of writing, we do not see any opportunities to add to our position just yet, and we certainly see no areas of demand that is causing us any concern.

This is how we see the trade playing out. Ultimately, we’re targeting a 4hr demand area seen below at 1.11211-1.11454 (located deep within the daily demand area mentioned above at 1.11211-1.11813).  However, before we reach our destination, we are expecting to encounter some road bumps. Buying opposition will likely come into the market around 1.12513, which as you can see is happening right now. The 1.12 level seen below is also a place where we expect a mini battle to take place. Assuming that all goes to plan here, we will be attempting to add to our position on the break and retest of each level just mentioned (as per the blue arrows).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.12979 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.13276).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe:  For the past three weeks now, price has been stalling around a weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.96993. In the event that active sellers enter the market here, we see very little stopping prices from declining down to at least 0.94546, a weekly resistance flip level.

Daily Timeframe: The current situation on the daily timeframe shows that price is ranging between a major daily supply area at 0.97505-0.96339 (located within the aforementioned weekly supply area), and a small daily decision-point demand level seen at 0.95583. Before the market can reach the aforementioned weekly resistance flip level, selling pressure must take out the aforementioned daily decision-point demand level.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe is showing some very interesting price action at the moment. A few hours ago, price closed below an ignored 4hr supply area at 0.96535-0.96408, which as a result likely cleared the path south down to at least 0.96. Therefore with this in mind, we intend to take a small short position around 0.96815 if price retraces that far, with a stop set just above 0.97 at 0.97039. Our first take-profit target will be set at 0.96030, and we will likely take full profit around the 4hr ‘buy zone’ at 0.95430-0.95635, which encapsulates the aforementioned daily decision-point demand level.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.96815 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.97039).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that further buying was seen last week. This move gave us further cause to believe that the 1136.30 level is a solid area of demand. To the upside, there seems to be very little resistance in the way that could stop prices challenging 1244.08 again.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe is not showing much change in price structure at the moment. This is fine. As long as price continues to hold above 1182.01, our bias remains long. The path north on this timeframe appears to be relatively clear up to at least a daily decision-point supply area coming in at 1235.51-1222.37, just below the weekly 1244.08 level.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who did not have the chance to read our last report on gold, here is a quick update. We missed an opportunity to trade gold long yesterday around the 1194.11 level, but we also mentioned that there may be a second opportunity to buy if the low 1192.66 gets faked. As we can all see, this did indeed happen and we were filled at 1193.07 and took profits at 1199.83 for a quick scalp. We only managed a 1.5 risk/reward on this trade – not too bad considering we did not plan on being in the market that long since this was a second test which could have just as easily failed.

In the event that further buying is seen here, prices will likely hit a 4hr supply area coming in at 1216.58-1208.18.  However, assuming for a moment that price falls below the 1194.11 level, and price continues south down towards an area marked in green seen between the daily support flip level (1182.01), and minor 4hr resistance flip level (1174.33). This would provide a nice area (1183.11) for us to watch for lower-timeframe buying confirmation, since we would effectively be trading off of the daily support flip level mentioned above at 1182.01.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1183.11 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).