EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that there is clear buying interest being seen off of a combined weekly demand/Quasimodo support area (1.22403-1.24420/1.22866) at the moment. However, let’s all not get too excited thinking price is heading to the moon, since a weekly support swap level lurking just above at 1.26229 will likely be resistive. Let’s take a look to see if there are any shorter-term buying opportunities on the lower timeframes.

Daily Timeframe: Price has broken above a daily supply area seen at 1.25763-1.24794, which as a result has likely cleared the path north up to 1.26213, a small daily support flip level. In our opinion, this has likely confirmed bullish strength from the aforementioned weekly demand/Quasimodo support area for the time being. Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe price structure looks like.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that ever since hitting the aforementioned weekly demand/Quasimodo support area, price on the 4hr timeframe has been in an upward trending channel, which so far has been respected. As such, we feel the following scenario may play out today: Once the Europe/London sessions opens, more volume will flow into the market where we anticipate a sell off being seen down to a 4hr demand area coming in at 1.24422-1.24588. We feel that this area is stable enough for a pending buy order to be set around 1.24642, here’s why:

  • The higher-timeframes currently suggest that price has room to move higher before hitting resistance (see above).
  • The demand area is relatively free/untouched, and had great momentum north from the base indicating unfilled buy orders may be left there.
  • The demand area lines up beautifully with the lower channel limit.

First take-profit target for this trade would likely be 1.25, then assuming price consumes this level, the 1.26310-1.26000 area would be our second. Here is where we expect to see a battle between the buyers and sellers since this area encapsulates the aforementioned weekly support swap level, and a close above here could be an early sign of much higher prices to come!

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.24642 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.24358).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers still remain battling for position between the upper limits of a weekly demand area at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly resistance flip level seen at 1.57166. Let’s see what the lower timeframes can offer us.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe is still showing that price is trading around a daily decision-point demand area at 1.55602-1.56802 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area). Nonetheless – like the weekly timeframe, the 1.57166 resistance barrier is currently holding the market lower. A close above here would need to be seen before we would consider taking any longer-term buy positions on this pair.

4hr Timeframe: Price has so far successfully held above 1.56552 and from there advanced to a fresh high of 1.57361. For our regular readers you will know that we’re already long from 1.56166, and currently targeting 1.57526, just below a 4hr supply area at 1.57804-1.57578. We see this as only a short-term trade for now, with the possibility of holding some of the position longer term if the higher timeframe confirms so (a close above 1.57166).

Judging by the way price action has been behaving lately on the pound, we feel a move higher is imminent. Price is currently trading around a critical area – a combined 4hr supply/round number area at 1.57208-1.56927/1.57 which encapsulates the weekly 1.57166 level. A close above here could be a signal price is not only free to trade up to the 4hr supply area at 1.57804-1.57578 (our target area), but could also be an early sign of much higher prices to come as a 4hr candle would have effectively closed above a major higher timeframe level.

Assuming that the buyers can hold out above 1.56552, our trade is safe, if not, we are expecting price to come back to our entry level where we’ll be watching the lower-timeframe price action like a hawk to possibly exit our position.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.56166 [LIVE] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.55633).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that the buyers and sellers are still battling it out between an ignored weekly Quasimodo support level seen at 0.88189, and a weekly Quasimodo support level below coming in at 0.85769. A close above would likely clear the way for prices to challenge a weekly support flip level seen at 0.89972, and likewise a close below will likely attract further selling down to a major weekly demand area at 0.80646-0.84601. At this point in time, price is currently trading off of 0.85769, so any selling will require strict trade management.

Daily Timeframe: We mentioned yesterday that price was likely clear to challenge a major daily resistance flip level at 0.85504. As we can all see, price did indeed trade lower but missed this level by around 15 pips or so before trading north. Hopefully the 4hr timeframe will tell us why that is.

4hr Timeframe: We can see from the 4hr timeframe that price actually reacted to a 4hr demand area (0.85698 – red circle) formed around a 4hr Quasimodo support level at 0.85522.This was our intended level to go long from initially, and as such we’re quite happy to leave our pending buy order in place at 0.85566 for the time being, as pro money may require deeper orders to fulfil their liquidity requirements (sells for their buys) at a later date.

At the time of writing, a rally higher is possible since price is effectively trading off of and around higher-timeframe support (see above) at the moment.  With that being said, the only near-term area that looks good enough to consider buying from is around 0.86 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.86020). Going long from 0.86 would only be possible if we had corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation, since fakeouts are common around psychological levels such as these.

This may sound crazy to some, but there may also be a near-term selling opportunity around the 4hr ignored Quasimodo resistance level seen above at 0.86646 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 0.86624), as pro money will likely fake price above the current 4hr supply area at 0.86257-0.86314 to collect more liquidity (stops) and cause confusion among the less-informed traders. Lower-timeframe confirmation would be required here as we would effectively be shorting against the higher timeframe direction. In our opinion, the take-profit target for this trade has to be quick and painless, we recommend taking full profits around 0.86.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.85566 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.85346) 0.86020 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.85878).
  • Sell orders: 0.86624 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.86780).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The USD/JPY continues on its relentless march north, which has consequently forced price to spike (118.968) above a major weekly supply area coming in at 117.931-116.799.  The question we need answering is, was this spike a fakeout for lower prices, or is indeed a continuation move for a rally higher? Hopefully the lower timeframes can help.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has pushed above a daily support flip level at 117.931 directly into a daily supply area coming in at 119.820-118.700. Therefore, for the current weekly spike to be a fakeout, follow-through selling would need to be seen from here preferably closing below 117.931. On the other hand, if price consumes this daily supply area just mentioned, we know with a high probability that prices will continue higher.

4hr Timeframe:  The 4hr timeframe shows that price did indeed break above 118 as expected, which in turn met selling interest from the aforementioned daily supply area. This has consequently forced prices back down to 118 where buying tails are currently being seen. Buying here is tempting – very tempting! However, we have decided to wait for lower timeframe confirmation before entering long, since we could potentially be buying against higher-timeframe sellers, which is usually not the best path to take!

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is still ranging between a major weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623, and a weekly resistance level coming in at 0.80328. With that being said, anyone one considering buying the Euro may want to hold fire, due to the fact that price is currently trading around the upper limits of this range (0.80328) at the moment. Let’s see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that selling interest has been seen around a daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.80351, which to be fair is literally the same as the weekly 0.80328 level (see above). With that being said, for further selling to be seen, a minor daily decision-point demand area at 0.79538-0.79851 will need to be consumed.

4hr Timeframe: Our short trade taken at 0.80227 is still active, and we have also added another small sell position at 0.79974 on the retest of 0.8. This is how we see this pair at the moment:

For levels, see above if not stated here.

  1. Price is trading around a weekly resistance level at the moment, meaning our bias is predominantly south for the time being.
  2. Agreed, price is currently trading around a minor daily decision-point demand area at 0.79538-0.79851 and higher prices could well ensue, but we still favor lower prices as the higher-timeframe picture usually takes precedence in our opinion (see point 1).
  3. The 4hr timeframe shows room to move lower to at least a 4hr demand area coming in at 0.79538-0.79636 (located within the minor daily decision-point area mentioned just above).

So, with these three points in mind, we remain comfortable holding our selling positions down to at least the aforementioned 4hr demand area, where at which point we’ll be watching the lower timeframes for any sign that the market may be reversing. By all means, if price consumes this area, our next target to watch for a reversal would be around 0.79430, just above a small 4hr decision-point demand area at 0.79341-0.79410.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.80227 [LIVE] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.80473).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe:  The weekly timeframe shows that the buyers are still defending the 1.12775 weekly level for the time being. Our bias will continue to remain long, and will only change once a significant close below this level is seen.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe is showing interesting price action at the moment. Check out when price broke above the 1.12775 weekly level on the 03/11/2014, after a few days of trading higher price begun to flag south – this also happened below as well – beautiful market symmetry seen here. Anyway, our point is, as price has been declining over the past few weeks, it seems that pro money have been filling unfilled sell orders (spiking north) as they were selling into the market  which in turn has likely cleared the path north for future buying.  Supply consumption wicks can be seen at 1.13681/1.13923/1.14007.

4hr Timeframe:  The 4hr timeframe emphasizes what was seen on the daily timeframe regarding the possibility that the path north may well be clear. Take a look at the three blue arrows; here we clearly see consumed areas of supply, which has likely opened the gates for prices to rally up to at least the 4hr supply area seen above at 1.14474-1.14290.  We believe the time is right to begin looking for buying opportunities within the red circled zone, ultimately targeting this 4hr supply area. We’ll be watching price action on the hourly, 30 minute and 15 minute timeframes to see if we can buy into this pair. However, as per the green arrows on the chart, we do not expect prices to just rocket towards our target, selling opposition will likely be seen around the following areas before reaching our overall destination: 1.13582 and 1.14.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: Watch price action within the red circled area to go long (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms that price is likely going north).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe:  The weekly timeframe shows that price is still trading between a weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.95895, and a weekly resistance flip level seen at 0.94546. However, most of the trading action for the past few weeks has took place within and around the weekly supply area, so any buy trades initiated on this pair will require strict trade management rules.

Daily Timeframe: At the time of writing, the daily timeframe shows that price is trading between a major daily supply area at 0.97505-0.96339 (located within the aforementioned weekly supply area), and a small daily decision-point demand level coming in at 0.95583. Assuming that a break lower is seen here, this would likely attract further selling down towards a nice-looking daily demand area coming in at 0.94405-0.94937, which is located beautifully around the aforementioned weekly resistance flip level. A breakout above the daily supply area on the other hand does not mean its game over for the sellers, as price would effectively be still trading within an overall larger weekly supply area seen in at 0.98378-0.95895 (see above).

4hr Timeframe: Very similar to the EUR/USD, but upside down, the USD/CHF has been trading within a downward channel ever since hitting the weekly supply area mentioned above at 0.98378-0.95895 a few weeks ago.

Even though we are currently trading around a daily decision-point demand level at the moment (levels above) where higher prices could indeed be seen, we still feel that there is room to move lower due to the fact that the higher timeframes usually take precedence over the lower ones (weekly supply against daily demand). There is also the break of the 4hr demand area at 0.95430-0.95635 to take into consideration (marked with a green arrow). This move has likely cleared the path south down to at least 0.95 which is a potential first target.

Therefore, with the above in mind we do feel that there is a good chance selling will be seen either today, or sometime early next week either from 0.96 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 0.95981), or from the 4hr supply area above coming in at 0.96535-0.96408 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 0.96377).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.95981 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.96113) 0.96377 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.96574).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, the current weekly candle is showing indecision. We however cannot make any judgments until this candle has closed at the end of the week, let’s see what the lower timeframes say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand is showing moderate buying strength. At the time of writing, the buyers are successfully defending the 1182.01 major support flip level. Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see if there are any short-term buying opportunities to take advantage of.

4hr Timeframe: Unfortunately, there is not anything on the 4hr timeframe that is telling us to buy at the moment. A buying opportunity may present itself later today around 1184.05, just above a 4hr support flip level at 1182.93, which is essentially in the same area as the major daily support flip level mentioned above at 1182.01. However, this level would require very attractive lower-timeframe price action to interest us to buy gold here, as risk/reward considerations argue against entering long with prices in close proximity to resistive levels such as 1194.02.

For us personally, we would rather wait for price to break the 1204.65 level, which in turn would likely clear the path north up to at least a 4hr supply area seen at 1216.58-1212.68.  A perfect scenario would be as per the green arrows on the chart – price breaks above 1204.65 without hitting the 4hr supply area, leaving it essentially open for a potential first take-profit target, and then to enter below around 1182.93 or at some newly-formed demand area (as shown with the green arrows).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1184.05 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).