EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, the weekly timeframe shows that further buying is currently being seen off of a combined weekly demand/Quasimodo support area (1.22403-1.24420/1.22866). As a consequence, this has forced buying and selling to take place just below a weekly support swap level coming in at 1.26229.

Daily Timeframe: Price has broken above a daily supply area seen at 1.25763-1.24794, which as a result has likely cleared the path north up to 1.26213, a small daily support flip level. In our opinion, this has likely confirmed bullish strength from the aforementioned weekly demand/Quasimodo support area for the time being. Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe price structure looks like.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the EUR/USD rallied higher yesterday, but found the 4hr supply area at 1.26310-1.26000 to be resistive enough to turn things back around, and allow sellers to come back into the market.

Ultimately, what we would like to see today is for the buyers to hold out above a small 4hr demand area coming in at 1.25111-1.25243 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 1.25278), and from there to challenge the aforementioned 4hr supply area once more. This area of supply remains important as within it contains the small daily support flip level mentioned above at 1.26213, and as such, if this area is consumed, the path north would be very likely clear up to at least a 4hr supply area coming in at 1.27696-1.27315. For anyone considering going long around this 4hr demand area which price has just this minute hit, we would advise waiting for lower-timeframe confirmation, since price could very easily fake below to the round-number 1.25 before higher prices are seen.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.25278 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.24945).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers are still battling for position between the upper limits of a weekly demand area at 1.54260-1.56110, and a weekly resistance flip level seen at 1.57166. Let’s see what the lower timeframes can offer us.

Daily Timeframe: For the time being, the daily timeframe shows that price is currently trading deep within a daily decision-point demand area at 1.55602-1.56802 (located within the aforementioned weekly demand area). Nonetheless – like the weekly timeframe, the 1.57166 resistance barrier is currently holding the market lower. A close above here would need to be seen before we would consider taking any longer-term buy positions on this pair.

4hr Timeframe: Our pending buy order set at 1.56166 has been filled. For our regular readers you will know we’re ultimately targeting 1.57526, just below a 4hr supply area at 1.57804-1.57578, since we see this as only a short-term trade for now, with the possibility of holding some of the position longer term if the higher timeframe confirms so.

Price is currently trading around a critical juncture at the moment, and could well be the decider as to whether our trade reaches its first take-profit target or not. We are ideally looking for prices to close above the combined 4hr supply/round number area at 1.57208-1.56927/1.57 (encapsulates the weekly 1.57166 level), which would in turn likely force price to our target.

Assuming that the buyers can hold out above 1.56552, our trade is safe, if not, we are expecting price to come back to our entry level where we’ll be watching the lower-timeframe price action like a hawk to possibly exit our position.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.56166 [LIVE] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.55633).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe currently shows that the buyers and sellers are still battling it out between an ignored weekly Quasimodo support level seen at 0.88189, and a weekly Quasimodo support level below coming in at 0.85769. A close above would likely clear the way for prices to challenge a weekly support flip level seen at 0.89972, and likewise a close below will likely attract further selling down to a major weekly demand area seen at 0.80646-0.84601.

Daily Timeframe: The sellers were on fire yesterday which consequently obliterated a daily support level seen at 0.86855. At this point in time, the path south appears relatively clear for prices to challenge 0.85504; a major daily resistance flip level. Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this.

4hr Timeframe: The recent selling momentum seen on the Aussie has taken out multiple technical support barriers, and has resulted in price being forced to trade around 0.86, which seems to be holding for the time being. Would we enter long here? We are pretty sure we would not even with lower timeframe confirmation, since we currently have no direction on the weekly timeframe, and the daily timeframe is indicating that there’s room to move lower (see above).

With the above in mind, we do however have our eye on 0.85522, a 4hr Quasimodo support level seen below. This level lines up perfectly with the major daily resistance flip level mentioned above at 0.85504, and is also close to the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level.  A pending buy order has been set just above this level at 0.85566, with a stop just below at 0.85346.

On a side note, before/if price reaches this far south, watch for a potential retest opportunity to short beforehand once price closes below 0.86, this could make for a lovely short trade, targeting our entry long at 0.85566 (as shown with the arrows on the chart).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.85566 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.85346).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The USD/JPY continues its relentless march north, breaking above a major weekly supply area coming in at 117.931-116.799. Assuming that most of the sellers are consumed here, this could potentially open the gates for price to challenge a major weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.180, but we are expecting a correction before price reaches that far. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the buyers are currently battling with the sellers around a major daily support flip level seen at 117.931. A reversal from here could force price down towards a daily decision-point demand area at 115.297-116.095, and conversely a break above would likely attract follow-through buying up to a daily supply area coming in at 119.820-118.700.

4hr Timeframe: Unfortunately we do not have enough historical data to see what the 4hr-timeframe price action is like in the past, so we’ll just work with what we have for now.

Price is currently trading around 118 on this timeframe, which if you remember is also very near a major daily support flip level at 117.931, so a reversal is possible. However, with the way price has been behaving on this pair over the last few weeks, we presently favor a break higher. Assuming this does indeed happen; watch the lower-timeframe price action for an entry long on the retest of 118 as support, targeting 118.558, just below the daily supply area mentioned above at 119.820-118.700.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is currently ranging between a major weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623, and a weekly resistance level coming in at 0.80328. With that being said, anyone one considering buying the Euro at the moment may want to hold fire, since price is currently trading off of the upper limits of this range (0.80328). Let’s see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that selling interest has certainly come into the market around a daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.80351, which to be fair is literally the same as the weekly 0.80328 level. With that being said, for further selling to be seen, a minor daily decision-point demand area will need to be consumed at 0.79538-0.79851.

4hr Timeframe: Selling interest was clearly present around the 4hr supply area that was mentioned yesterday at 0.80453-0.80245. Our pending sell order has been well and truly filled (0.80227), and as expected, buying opposition is currently being seen around 0.8. Ultimately we are watching for price to close below this level, and successfully retest it as resistance, where at which point we’ll be looking to add to our short position. We have our eye on 0.79666 as our first take-profit target at the moment, which is just above a 4hr demand area seen at 0.79538-0.79636 (located deep within the aforementioned minor daily decision-point demand area). So, for the time being, we are going to have to sit on our hands and patiently watch price action unfold.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.80227 [LIVE] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.80473).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe:  At the time of writing, the weekly timeframe is showing buying interest off of the medium-term weekly high (support) at 1.12775. Our bias for this pair will remain long until we see price significantly close below this level.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price closed above the small daily resistance barrier at 1.13110 (mentioned yesterday), indicating that buying strength may be entering the market. Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what else we can see.

4hr Timeframe: Current trading action reveals that price is consolidating between 1.13582, a 4hr Quasimodo resistance level, and a small 4hr resistance flip level at 1.13190. Price will likely continue to range until the European session opens, where we anticipate a small sell off being seen down towards the 1.13 area. We then feel there is a good chance buyers will come into the market here around 1.13039 rallying prices up to at least the upper limit of the current range (1.13582), since we currently have higher-timeframe direction at the moment (see above). Would we be confident placing a pending buy order here? Definitely not, even with the higher-timeframe direction we have. Price could still effectively fake below 1.13 into the 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.12624-1.12873 before higher prices are seen – without lower-timeframe confirmation we have no entry in our opinion.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.13039 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.12570).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe:  The weekly timeframe still shows price is trading between a weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.95895, and a weekly resistance flip level seen at 0.94546.That being said though, most of the trading action for the past few weeks has took place within and around the weekly supply area, so any buy trades initiated on this pair will require strict trade management rules.

Daily Timeframe: At the time of writing, the daily timeframe shows that price is trading between a major daily supply area at 0.97505-0.96339 (located within the aforementioned weekly supply area), and a small daily decision-point demand level coming in at 0.95583. Assuming that price breaks lower here, this would likely attract further selling down towards a nice-looking daily demand area seen at 0.94405-0.94937, which is located beautifully around the aforementioned weekly resistance flip level. A breakout above on the other hand would not mean game over for the sellers, as price would still effectively be trading deep within the overall larger weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.95895 (see above).

4hr Timeframe: We mentioned in the previous analysis that for us to become interested in selling the U.S Dollar, a break/close below the 4hr demand area at 0.95430-0.95635 (surrounds the aforementioned daily decision-point demand level) would be required. As we can all see, price has indeed broken lower (green arrow), and as such likely opened the gates for prices to challenge at least the psychological number 0.95.

Now that we have a predetermined target (0.95), where could we begin to look for sells? We feel there is a good chance that 0.96 will hold the market lower as it has great history. However, entering short at around 0.95981 with a pending sell order may not be the best path to take, simply because no daily close has been seen below the aforementioned daily decision-point demand level yet, so lower-timeframe confirmation would certainly be needed here, as this could essentially be a fakeout north to take prices higher.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.95981 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.96113).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that yet another buying tail formed last week just above a small weekly decision-point demand level seen at 1136.30 potentially indicating bullish strength. We see very little in the way stopping prices from rallying higher up to 1244.08 sometime this week or the next. However, let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what we can find.

Daily Timeframe: Price is currently trading back around a major daily support flip level at 1182.01, which is a shame since price action looked very positive yesterday. In the event that price significantly closes below this level, this could result in further selling down to a small daily resistance flip level seen at 1149.42, and at the same time indicate buying weakness from the weekly decision-point demand level mentioned above at 1136.30. Hopefully we can see more on the 4hr timeframe.

4hr Timeframe: Aggressive selling from 1199.99 has recently been seen on gold, bringing prices down as far as 1174.33, a 4hr resistance flip level. This is how we see things playing out in the next day or two here. Price will likely continue to range between 1204.65 and 1174.33 until larger volume enters the markets (Europe/London). Buying and selling between these two levels is valid strategy, but in our opinion would only be possible with corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation (Buys: 1175.52 – Sells: 1194.73).

Nonetheless, for us personally, we would rather wait for a break of one of the above levels, as this will likely confirm where price is headed to next. For instance, a break above would likely attract further buying towards a 4hr supply area seen at 1216.58-1212.68, and also at the same time likely confirm buying strength from the aforementioned major daily support flip level.

Conversely a break below could force prices down towards a 4hr demand area coming in at 1146.76-1154.80 (which sits nicely on top of the daily resistance flip level mentioned above at 1149.42), and at that point would also likely signal buying weakness from both the weekly decision-point demand level, and also the major daily support flip level (levels above) as well.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1175.52 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms the level).
  • Sell orders: 1194.73 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1204.93).