EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that a small reaction is currently being seen off of a combined weekly demand/Quasimodo support area at 1.22403-1.24420/1.22866.  In the event that further buying ensues from here, price could potentially hit the weekly support flip level coming in at 1.27541.

Daily Timeframe: Thanks to the daily timeframe, we know that for the time being going long may not be the best path to take, as price is currently ranging between a small daily supply area at 1.25763-1.24794, and a long-term daily demand area seen at 1.22877-1.23809. In the event that price does breakout north here, this would likely indicate higher prices are going to follow suit, and will also confirm buying strength from the aforementioned weekly demand/Quasimodo support area.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that not a lot has changed since we last analyzed this pair, as price still continues to trade between1.24 and1.25.

However, in our view the Euro may be setting up for a higher short-term move against the U.S Dollar. What we are currently seeing is price potentially gathering buy orders. The market reacted beautifully off of 1.24249 – the lower of the two green levels, and rallied higher. Assuming a decline in value is seen from current price (1.24788), and the buyers can hold out above 1.24461 – the higher of the two green levels, we then feel there is a good chance 1.25 could be breached. This would likely result in further buying being seen up to 1.25380 (located deep within the aforementioned daily supply area), where at which point some selling opposition is expected to be seen around 1.25347. Going short there would in our opinion be  risky, as larger buyers could be entering the market from the aforementioned weekly demand/Quasimodo support area, but with the right lower-timeframe price action, one could likely profit from a small move south down to 1.25

Assuming the above does indeed occur, we would be interested in buying the Euro, if price were to successfully retest 1.25 as support targeting at least 1.25699, a 4hr support flip level.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.25347 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.25837).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The sellers continue to dominate the British pound which has consequently forced price south towards a weekly resistance flip level coming in at 1.57166. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has successfully consumed the daily demand area seen at 1.57736-1.58390, and as result forced price to trade just above a daily demand area at 1.55602-1.56802.

4hr Timeframe: A small amount of buying interest is currently being seen off of the 1.57 level, which is encapsulated by a 4hr demand area coming in at 1.56845-1.57318.

Considering the fact that price is trading around an area of weekly support (1.57166), and just above a daily demand area (1.55602-1.56802) at the moment, our bias for the time being is currently long.  A weekly close below the 1.57166 barrier would be required to invalidate this bias.

One could potentially enter long now and see if price will hit the first target, which for us would be the 4hr decision-point supply area coming in at 1.57804-1.57578. However, we would prefer to wait for some lower timeframe confirmation here, which has yet to be given, so for time being we’re forced to sit on our hands and patiently watch price unfold.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Buying interest is currently being seen off of a weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.85769. This comes after price had closed below a major weekly demand area last week at 0.86591-0.88247. If follow-through buying is seen, prices could potentially test 0.88874, a weekly support flip level. Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has tested the extremes of a daily decision-point supply area coming in at 0.87608-0.86798. A small break above of about three pips was seen. Is this enough to conclude that this area is consumed? We honestly do not think so; hopefully the 4hr timeframe will offer us a little more information.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price has once again pushed above a 4hr supply zone seen at 0.87536-0.87319, could this be simply another fakeout, or is it indeed consumption to enable higher prices? If price has indeed broke higher to consume sellers to continue north, price in our opinion should respect either 0.87 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.87021), or 0.86820 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.86865). A close below here would likely invalidate a bullish bias for the time being.

Assuming that price respects either of the above levels, a reasonable first take-profit target is coming in around the 0.88 round-number area.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.87021 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.86659) 0.86865 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.86659).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the USD/JPY continues to rally after price broke above a major weekly supply area last week seen at 114.650-112.530. We feel that there is a good chance this rally will continue until price reaches a weekly supply area coming in at 117.931-116.799. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes show.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the daily Quasimodo resistance area at 115.911-115.021 has seen a small break above. This is not a good sign for anyone short this pair at the moment, as it has potentially cleared the path north towards 117.120 (located within the weekly supply area mentioned above at 117.931-116.799), a daily Quasimodo resistance level. Let’s see what we can find on the 4hr timeframe.

4hr Timeframe: Price still remains range bound between 116 and 115. Considering that both the daily and weekly timeframes are indicating higher prices could potentially ensue, our bias is currently long on this pair. As far as buying is concerned though, we are a little cautious at the moment, since price could just as easily break below 115, and trade down towards a nice-looking combined 4hr demand/round-number area at 113.847-114.252/114, where potential buy orders are likely lurking just above at 114.340. Entering here using a pending buy order would not be a great idea in our humble opinion, since there’s currently no confirmed direction north. With that being said, if the right type of price-action formation is spotted on the lower timeframes around here, taking a long and targeting 115 as your first target could nonetheless potentially work out.

However, in our opinion, for higher prices to be truly confirmed, a positive 4hr close above 116 would need to be seen. Following this, we would become very interested in joining the current uptrend on a positive retest of 116 as support up to at least 117.120, the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance level.

4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 114.340 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 113.734).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: Serious buying interest has come into the market around a major weekly demand area seen at 0.76931-0.78623, we see very little in the way that could hinder price from reaching at least 0.80328, a weekly resistance level.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows price has obliterated a daily supply area seen at 0.79109-0.78609, which as a result has exposed the 0.79634 daily support flip level. Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what else we can find.

4hr Timeframe: It was reported that if price was to break above the combined 4hr supply/round-number area seen at 0.79109-0.78858/0.79, a rally would likely ensue up to around a 4hr supply area coming in at 0.79802-0.79521, and as we can all see this did indeed happen.

Considering the fact that price is aggressively trading out of weekly demand area (levels above) at the moment, our bias for the time being remains long. With that being said though, the 4hr timeframe is trading in close proximity to a 4hr supply area mentioned above which encapsulates  the aforementioned daily support flip level, so some selling opposition could come into the market around here. However, any short trades (tentative sell orders are seen around 0.79645 deep within the aforementioned 4hr supply area) initiated would have to be done so with strict trade management rules, and preferably with lower-timeframe confirmation.

We would just like to emphasize once more that any short trades taken should be monitored continuously, since larger buyers could enter the market from the aforementioned weekly demand area.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.79645 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.79854).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price seems to have firmly retested the medium-term weekly high 1.12775 as support. Any long trades taken from here on the lower timeframes could potentially have massive risk/reward if one were to ultimately target the weekly supply area seen above at 1.17225-1.15417.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that further buying is indeed being seen off of the 1.12775 weekly level, which is fantastic as we have taken a long trade from here (see below). Let’s take a look at the 4hr timeframe.

4hr Timeframe: Our first take-profit target has already been hit at 1.13357 just below the 4hr supply area at 1.13582-1.13376, which was consumed in the process, meaning this trade is essentially risk-free for us now. We are definitely going to attempt to hold this position until around 1.15249, which is located just below the weekly supply area mentioned above at 1.17225-1.15417. In between here and there, corrections are most definitely expected, but ultimately we believe that this pair is heading north.

Ideally, we would like to see the buyers hold above the 4hr supply swap area at 1.13582-1.13376, and challenge 1.14. We would usually consider adding to our position if prices were to close above 114, but with prices in close proximity to potential resistance at 1.14262, buying there may not be the best path to take unless one is willing to suffer potentially serious drawdown. With all the above taken into consideration, we have decided to sit back and monitor our current position, as there are no high-probability long entries that we can see setting up at the moment.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.12916 – LIVE (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.12534).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe still shows price is capped between a weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.95895, and a weekly resistance flip level seen at 0.94546.That being said though, most of the current trading action is taking place within the weekly supply area at the moment, so any buy trades initiated will require strict trade management rules.

Daily Timeframe: Current trading action on the daily timeframe reveals that price is trading within a major daily supply area coming in at 0.97505-0.96339 (located within the aforementioned weekly supply area). Nevertheless, considering where price is currently located there is very little selling pressure being seen at the moment. In the event that the sellers do eventually become active here, it is very likely price will hit a daily decision-point demand level seen at 0.95965. On the other hand, a breakout above the daily supply area would likely mean prices are potentially going to challenge the extremes of the aforementioned weekly supply area. Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe can offer us.

4hr Timeframe: In our opinion price is now ranging between 0.96237 and 0.96723. Opportunities to trade this range are potentially here with tentative buy orders seen at 0.96252, and sell orders are seen at 0.96684). With that being said, we would not feel comfortable trading these levels with immediate pending orders, lower-timeframe confirmation would be required, since range formations such as this are prone to fakeouts which can lead to unnecessary losses.

If price were to breakout north here, this would likely attract further buying up to at least the round-number level 0.97, where at which point we would be interested in selling the U.S Dollar around 0.96955 (located relatively deep within both higher-timeframe supply areas – weekly supply: 0.98378-0.95895, daily supply: 0.97505-0.96339).

On the other hand, assuming the sellers took it upon themselves to sell into this market breaking below the current range; prices would then likely be forced to hit at least the 0.96 level, or even the small 4hr demand area below it at 0.95789-0.95937 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.95967). Would we be interested in buying here? Yes, as we feel this area would likely see at least a bounce, but a reversal here is unlikely since we mustn’t forget where price is located on the higher timeframes (see above). However, taking a long trade here would in our opinion require lower timeframe confirmation, and since only a bounce is expected, one would need to likely watch the 5 minute timeframe or lower to get in early to take advantage of any short move.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.96252 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.96164) 0.95967 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.95755).
  • Sell orders: 0.96684 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.96808) 0.96955 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.97546).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: Traders who bought based off the bullish weekly pin-bar candle that formed around a weekly decision-point demand level last week at 1136.30 have likely been in serious drawdown all this week. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see if any new developments can be seen.

Daily Timeframe: For anyone who read Monday’s analysis on gold, you would have likely resisted buying on the break of that weekly pin-bar candle, as it was reported that all price had effectively done was traded directly towards a major daily support flip level seen at 1182.01. For us to consider buying into this market on any long-term positions, a positive close above 1182.01 would be required. It will be interesting to see if there are any short-term opportunities to trade on the 4hr timeframe.

4hr Timeframe:  (Not a lot of movement has been seen on this pair, and as a result, the analysis below is very similar to the previous). The 4hr timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers are currently battling it out between a weak 4hr supply area at 1174.84-1168.15, and a minor 4hr resistance flip level coming in at 1155.48 (pink). Ultimately though, we expect this support level to be breached, which would likely force prices south down towards 1149.42, a minor 4hr resistance flip level (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 1150.61). With that being said, trading this level would likely require some sort of lower-timeframe confirmation, as price could just as easily continue to slide down towards an ‘extreme’ 4hr Quasimodo support area coming in at 1131.41-1137.65. It would be around here at the 1138.51 mark that we would be very confident buying; targeting 1182.93 for a short/medium-term buy trade. The reason being is simply because we have confirmed direction north, as major selling opposition above has already likely been consumed around a very important (the reason for why it is important is on the chart) 4hr supply area at 1174.84-1168.15 marked with a blue arrow. This effectively leaves the overall path north clear to around a 4hr support flip level seen at 1182.93 (the daily timeframe shows this as a major daily support flip level – see above).

This set up could take some time to unfold, and we have to be prepared for the possibility that prices may never reach the 4hr Quasimodo support area before hitting the 4hr support flip level (our prospective take-profit target). However, in our opinion, this would be the best place to enter long on gold that provides the best return on your risk.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1138.51 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1130.21) 1150.61 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1145.16).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).