EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week was clearly one for the bears as the market aggressively sold into (and slightly broke) a minor weekly demand area coming in at 1.24996-1.26262. Does this mean price is clear to hit the combined weekly demand/Quasimodo support area below at 1.22403-1.24420/1.22866, or is this break simply a fakeout to collect stops? Let’s see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily chart reveals that the market closed (1.25184) within a daily demand area seen at 1.24642-1.25616. If the market had broken this area last week, then we would have been confident prices may be continuing south, but as we can see this did not happen. Therefore, according to the daily timeframe, buying is still possible at least up until a small daily support flip level coming in at 1.26213.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe is where we feel all the above ties in together. Let’s just recap so we all know where we are. Last week shows that price broke a minor weekly demand area (1.24996-1.26262), while on the daily timeframe; price is still firmly trading within a daily demand zone seen at 1.24642-1.25616. The 4hr timeframe on the other hand shows price spiked through both a very important 4hr demand area at 1.25005-1.25362, and also a round-number level just below it at 1.25. There were very likely a lot of stop-loss orders taken out just below here, and with that it was no surprise buying was seen shortly after.

We firmly believe the Euro still has a little way to decline yet. Here’s why, the daily demand area (levels above) appears to be weak from the touch seen on the 03/10/14 at 1.24996. However, if you look into how this daily demand area was formed, it will likely surprise you. Use the 4hr timeframe and look back at the price action that created this daily demand zone. Can you see it is made up of higher highs and higher lows, what this effectively means is that most of the demand was already consumed around this area to begin with (check out the demand consumption wicks at 1.25005/1.24861/1.24642). Also, can you see where this demand consumption starts? It conveniently begins around a 4hr resistance flip level at 1.24408 (not seen on the chart), just a few pips below the weekly demand area upper limit at 1.24420.

Nevertheless, before we see lower prices, pro money may require liquidity in the form of buy orders to sell into, so they may buy into the market pushing prices higher, they may as well as they have the liquidity to buy from the stops just taken out. Early on during this week, we see the possibility of active sellers coming into market around the ignored 4hr Quasimodo level (1.25699) at 1.25661, or even just below the 4hr supply area (1.26310-1.26119) at 1.26088 all ultimately targeting the 4hr resistance flip level mentioned above at 1.24408.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.25661 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.25946) 1.26088 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.26354).

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: For the past four weeks now price has been seen trading around a weekly demand area coming in at 1.58533-1.60157. As far as buying is concerned though, we are a bit cautious as there has been very little ‘convincing’ interest shown by the buyers within these four weeks of trading. In fact, we would go as far to say that the GBP/USD looks a right mess on this timeframe at the moment!

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe reveals exactly why we are a bit cautious about buying into this market. Price has been consolidating between a minor daily support flip level seen at 1.61609 and a combined daily demand/Quasimodo support area coming in at 1.58533-1.59914/1.58934 since the 03/10/2014 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area). It is only until one of these areas sees a positive close; we will then have some idea on future direction. Let’s see what we can find on the 4hr timeframe.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that there is certainly a temporary’ floor’ to this market around 1.59529 at the moment, which was respected for the second time on Friday (1.59410). If this week shows that price can close above the round-number level 1.6 without breaking the 1.59529 level first, we may have a potential buying opportunity if price can successfully retest this level as support. Assuming the above does happen, our first target would be around 1.60781, since the path north would then likely be clear up to at least this area.

Be that as it may, if price decides to close below the 1.59529 level, we then feel there is a good chance that this will attract further selling during the week down towards the 4hr demand area coming in at 1.58533-1.58915 (active buy orders are seen just above at 1.58960). Even though this 4hr demand area has been hit already, it still could be a nice area to look for a bounce, since we cannot ignore that fact that it is sitting very deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.58960 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.58449).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the buyers attempting to trade out of a weekly demand area at 0.86591-0.88247. This was unfortunately met with heavy selling around the 0.88874 weekly support flip level forcing prices to close the week within demand at 0.87942.

wkly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has been ranging ever since the 29/09/14 between a daily demand area at 0.86318-0.87183 and a daily decision-point supply area coming in at 0.88961-0.88302 (located nicely around the aforementioned weekly support flip level). With that being said, during Wednesday’s trading sessions last week, price broke above this range by a few pips; could this be a signal that the buyers are gaining strength, or was it merely a fakeout to bring prices back into the range? Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.

dly

4hr Timeframe: We have to be honest here; this pair looks very messy to trade at the moment. With that being said though we believe that the break above the daily range (see above) was very likely a fakeout, and that this may only fuel a further decline.

After the fakeout was seen, price sold off sharply consuming a 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 0.87879-0.88235, which was our first clue that lower prices would likely ensue. We then went on to notice that price was also forming an ‘up trend’ marked with a pink trendline. However, considering for a minute that both the weekly and daily timeframes are showing very little direction at the moment, this could merely be pro money clearing the path south (check out the demand consumption tails at: 0.87544/0.87178/0.86848/0.86744) for future selling back into the daily range. The most logical area where we believe price would be sold to is the 4hr Quasimodo support level coming in at 0.86622 (active buy orders are seen just above at 0.86693), which is located deep within the aforementioned daily demand area [see above]).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.86693 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.86369).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A). 

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week the USD/JPY pair absolutely obliterated a major weekly supply area at 110.652-108.123, which as a result saw the market close just below another major weekly supply area (114.650-112.530) at 112.315. Assuming the sellers get involved here, we feel there is very little stopping them from pushing price down to at least the 105.432 level. Let’s see what the picture looks like on the lower timeframes.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that Friday saw huge amounts of buying take place, which resulted in price breaking through multiple resistance barriers, and ended the week with the market closing (level above) just below a major daily support flip level coming in at 112.460 (located 7 pips below the weekly supply area mentioned above at 114.650-112.530). A daily close above here would negate a bearish bias for the time being at least until price reaches 113.580, a daily Quasimodo resistance level. However, in the event that selling interest comes into the market here, active buyers are expected to be waiting around an ignored Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 111.741, which could potentially propel prices higher above the aforementioned resistance level.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Unfortunately the historical data does not allow us to see what the price action looks like in the past. Nonetheless, we know that price is currently trading around a daily support flip level (112.460) at the moment, and this could be enough to force price to trade below the round-number level 112. With that being said though, price appeared to close the week relatively strong off of this level, could this be a subtle sign that price will continue higher sometime this week?

In our humble opinion, there does not seem to be any tradable opportunities on this pair for the time being, and as a result we will just be watching how price action unfolds for the next few days.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe certainly shows this week was one for the sellers, and as a consequence prices plummeted further into a major weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623 forcing the market to close the week at 0.78250. Considering where price is currently located, we have not seen much in the way of buying strength over the past few weeks.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: Friday’s trading action saw price drop like a rock, consequently consuming a daily decision-point demand area at 0.78468-0.78986 along the way. This move will likely attract further selling towards a daily demand area coming in at 0.77507-0.77772 (located very deep within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.76931-0.78623). Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the buyers were clearly not strong enough to overcome the 0.78858 level, and as a consequence saw price sell off consuming a 4hr demand area at 0.78468-0.78595 in the process. The market closed (level above) just above a nice-looking 4hr support flip level seen at 0.78210. In the event that price closes below this level, we will expect to see further selling down to around 0.78. Nonetheless, we would not be placing any buy orders there; instead we have our eye on 0.77840, a 4hr Quasimodo support level seen just below (active buy orders are seen just above at 0.77873). The reason is simply because this level sits perfectly above the daily demand area already mentioned at 0.77507-0.77772 (see the daily timeframe analysis), and as a result gains extra weight.

However, before any of the above happens, we have to be prepared for some profit taking to be seen, as traders will no doubt be liquidating some of their short position early on in the week. This profit taking could force price to rally up to around a 4hr demand swap area coming in at 0.78468-0.78595, where at which point we believe the sellers will take overall control and continue pushing the market lower.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.77873 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.77637).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price still remains trading around the medium-term weekly high 1.12775, neither the buyers nor the sellers have made any attempt to control this market over the past few weeks. It will be interesting to see what the lower-timeframe picture looks like.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe is showing medium-term bullish strength. If price firmly closes above the high seen on the weekly (marked to the far left for reference) chart, and retests this level as support, we feel there is a good chance further buying would indeed be seen.

It would be only until a daily close is seen below the 1.10980 barrier would this then negate a bullish bias in our view.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Friday’s trading action shows that the buyers aggressively bought off of 1.12, and pushed price high above 1.13, which very likely triggered an imaginable amount of stops from traders attempting to fade this number, and also trapping any breakout buyers in the process. All of these buy orders were very likely used by pro money to liquidate their long positions which as a result formed a nice-looking bearish pin-bar candle. A lot of traders will see this as a signal to go lower, and price could well do that. However, we feel there is a good chance pro money have liquidated most of their buy positions from the recent up move, and are ready to continue buying using the sell orders that will likely enter the market from the bearish pin-bar signal. This will most probably force prices to close above the 1.13 level, where at which point we would be watching price action to retest this level as support. If it does, then we will consider entering long with our first target being set around 1.14 Why have we ignored the 4hr supply area just above at 1.13842-1.13352? The reason is simple. We feel this area has been consumed already when price spiked into it on the 16/10/2014 at 1.13601, and thus indicates potential weakness.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A). 

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe still shows price is capped between a weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.95895, and a weekly resistance flip level seen at 0.94546 with price seen closing the week at 0.96253.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: Last week’s trading action shows that the buyers were in full force for most of last week, consequently pushing price into a major daily supply area seen at 0.97505-0.96339 (located within the weekly supply area mentioned above at 0.98378-0.95895). We feel there is a good chance that active sellers may come into the market around this area sometime this week, which will likely force price down to at least 0.95583, a daily resistance flip level. Let’s see what we can find on the 4hr timeframe.

DLY

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe also seems to agree that lower prices will likely be seen this week. Nonetheless, we believe price has a little further to climb before an overall sell off is seen. Price closed above the round-number level 0.96 on Friday, and as per this timeframe, no retest was seen. So, with this in mind there is a possibility that price will retest this level as support either today or tomorrow. This will likely give pro money the much-need liquidity to push prices higher into the 4hr supply area seen above at 0.96876-0.96694 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 0.96673), which is conveniently located within both the weekly supply area seen at 0.98378-0.95895, and also the daily supply area coming in at 0.97505-0.96339. However, we would not advise simply setting a pending sell order here and hoping for the best. This would not be a wise move since price could just as easily fakeout to the 0.97 level just above, or even the 4hr supply area seen at 0.97505-0.97153 (located very deep within the aforementioned daily supply area). We would advise waiting for lower timeframe confirmation that price does indeed want to trade lower.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.96673 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.96898).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: The rebound seen the week before last off of the weekly support flip level at 1244.08 extended lower last week pushing price deeper into a weekly demand area coming in at 1156.70-1194.45. This move has very likely put a lot of buyers under pressure who bought within this area, which could result in a lot of traders panicking, and closing their buy positions throughout the week effectively pumping more sell orders into the market (stops from the buyers would be sell orders once filled). A break below this weekly demand area would likely encourage further selling down to 1136.30, a small daily decision-point level. It will be interesting to see what the price action looks like on the lower timeframes around here.

WKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe clearly reveals that very little buying was seen last week, as the sellers aggressively pushed price south past two major technical support barriers (1182.01/1186.83). With that being said, a little buying interest appeared to come into the market just before the close (1170.95), around a fresh daily demand area (1156.70-1166.05) seen deep within the weekly demand zone mentioned above at 1156.70-1194.45

DLY

4hr Timeframe: Unfortunately we are unable to see what the price action on the 4hr timeframe looks like in the past, due to not having enough historical data. However, we know from the daily timeframe that price is currently trading around a daily demand area (1156.70-1166.05) at the moment, so we can work from there. Friday’s trading action saw price smash straight through a major 4hr support flip level (seen also on the daily timeframe too) at 1180.15. If the buyers can overcome the selling opposition located around this level, we may have a potential buying opportunity targeting the 4hr supply area seen above at 1202.61-1195.82, but until that happens, we are forced to remain flat on gold for the time being.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).